Market Adjustment: Good NBA big men are bargains right now
It took nearly a month of free agency to do it, but the last big free agency name was eventually taken off the board at the end of July. The Houston Rockets finally agreed to re-sign free agent centre Clint Capela to a deal reported to cost them only five years and $90 million, of which only five years and $80 million is guaranteed.
My use of the world "only" there was very deliberate. That is not a lot of money for a player of some calibre, and who is a roughly ideal fit for what the Rockets are doing with their team. It is considerably less than the maximum salary of five years and $147,710,050 (or four years and $109,509,175 with another team) that he could have signed for, and it is a lot less than Houston probably expected they could get him for when headed into free agency. In a tough free agency period in which they lost Trevor Ariza to the Phoenix Suns and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute to the L.A. Clippers, and given a maximum contract to Chris Paul that will be of questionable value in the back end, the Rockets needed to win on this one, and they have done.
In large part, this was due to their patience. Taking this full month allowed the relative impatience of the competition to take effect, and as the other cap space teams spent their money up, Capela quickly ran out of bidders. The Rockets have been significantly aided in this quest, though, not only by Capela's restricted free agency, but also by a flat overall market for 'big men'. [...]
[...] Whiteside in particular is a good point of comparison here for Capela. The two are reasonably similar players; long, wiry-strong five men with good rebounding rates, some natural shot blocking ability, no shooting range and limited offensive skill. Capela is considerably more efficient than Whiteside overall; offensively, he does not insist on getting half-court paint touches (and has both Chris Paul and James Harden to set him up), while defensively, he is more positionally aware, does not overly chase blocks, and steps up to the perimeter more effectively. He is the better player of the two. And yet despite that, he is now on the lesser deal, earning $17.5 million a year versus $24.7 million a year. You could get a whole Dewayne Dedmon in that gap.[...]
Capela could in theory have taken his qualifying offer and re-entered the free agency market in 2019, the one that stands to be a 2016-esque boon for players. It is however easier to take that gamble when you have already made big money once before like Evans, or when your one-year gap-bridging deal is of some significant size like Jordan. Precedent for this is not strong; both Nerlens Noel and Alex Len took their qualifying offers last year, for various reasons, yet both now earn a relative pittance (especially Noel, who went from wanting the maximum to getting the minimum in twelve short months). Having never yet been paid adequately for his services on his rookie contract, Capela will understandably have wanted to start drawing in the big bucks when he could. Houston wanted him to do that, too. But on their terms. [...]
[...] The money for good quality centres, then, is down. But the money to the second and third tier players at all positions has gone down too. And in putting the two together, reconciling the league-wide eye on 2019 with the cap stagflation and incumbent dead post player money, Houston took advantage with their third tier centre. Some teams needed Clint Capela, but only some, and almost no one could afford him. And thus the one team that needed him the most got him back at a discount. Fortune favours the patient.
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My use of the world "only" there was very deliberate. That is not a lot of money for a player of some calibre, and who is a roughly ideal fit for what the Rockets are doing with their team. It is considerably less than the maximum salary of five years and $147,710,050 (or four years and $109,509,175 with another team) that he could have signed for, and it is a lot less than Houston probably expected they could get him for when headed into free agency. In a tough free agency period in which they lost Trevor Ariza to the Phoenix Suns and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute to the L.A. Clippers, and given a maximum contract to Chris Paul that will be of questionable value in the back end, the Rockets needed to win on this one, and they have done.
In large part, this was due to their patience. Taking this full month allowed the relative impatience of the competition to take effect, and as the other cap space teams spent their money up, Capela quickly ran out of bidders. The Rockets have been significantly aided in this quest, though, not only by Capela's restricted free agency, but also by a flat overall market for 'big men'. [...]
[...] Whiteside in particular is a good point of comparison here for Capela. The two are reasonably similar players; long, wiry-strong five men with good rebounding rates, some natural shot blocking ability, no shooting range and limited offensive skill. Capela is considerably more efficient than Whiteside overall; offensively, he does not insist on getting half-court paint touches (and has both Chris Paul and James Harden to set him up), while defensively, he is more positionally aware, does not overly chase blocks, and steps up to the perimeter more effectively. He is the better player of the two. And yet despite that, he is now on the lesser deal, earning $17.5 million a year versus $24.7 million a year. You could get a whole Dewayne Dedmon in that gap.[...]
Capela could in theory have taken his qualifying offer and re-entered the free agency market in 2019, the one that stands to be a 2016-esque boon for players. It is however easier to take that gamble when you have already made big money once before like Evans, or when your one-year gap-bridging deal is of some significant size like Jordan. Precedent for this is not strong; both Nerlens Noel and Alex Len took their qualifying offers last year, for various reasons, yet both now earn a relative pittance (especially Noel, who went from wanting the maximum to getting the minimum in twelve short months). Having never yet been paid adequately for his services on his rookie contract, Capela will understandably have wanted to start drawing in the big bucks when he could. Houston wanted him to do that, too. But on their terms. [...]
[...] The money for good quality centres, then, is down. But the money to the second and third tier players at all positions has gone down too. And in putting the two together, reconciling the league-wide eye on 2019 with the cap stagflation and incumbent dead post player money, Houston took advantage with their third tier centre. Some teams needed Clint Capela, but only some, and almost no one could afford him. And thus the one team that needed him the most got him back at a discount. Fortune favours the patient.
