Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay
SF, 6’8, 230lbs, 30 years old, 11 years of experience

Probably the right time for he and the team to part as friends. Gay’s game has never been and will never be that of a first or second option, despite his best efforts to be one, and although the defence has improved in his career, it too does not stand out. With the Achilles injury, the team needs to begin planning the future without him in it, for it is very unclear as to what kind of player he will be upon his return.

Player Plan: Has opted out, and will probably walk. There is not much value in bringing him back; he will likely want to find a winner, anyway.

[...] Furthermore, despite the good play from the Kings' other two primary scorers, Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay (whose career in Sacramento is off to a surprisingly fantastic start), neither is known for their consistent creation of open looks for others. Thomas can do it, but would rather not, preferring to be a score first player. The two guard combination of Marcus Thornton and Ben McLemore most certainly are not playmakers for others. And Thompson, as the fifth starter, is the one who loses out.

The Toronto Raptors and Bryan Colangelo brought in Rudy Gay in February as a last-ditch effort to save several years of maneuvering that hadn't been going so well. Gay was available for cheap and was supposed to be a significant upgrade over any of the players sent out to acquire him.

In theory, Gay would supersede DeMar DeRozan as the primary wing scorer, providing the isolation scoring from the wing that the team needed. He would be the infusion of pure talent that they lacked. And even though he didn't fit on paper alongside Derozan and Andrea Bargnani, the defense and rebounding of Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson and Landry Fields would offset it, as would the shooting of Terrence Ross. The sheer infusion of talent he represented would make it worthwhile.

In reality, it didn't work. Bargnani regressed to the point he became toxic, Lowry struggled, the team failed to find cohesiveness and defense. Meanwhile, DeRozan and Gay did not mesh at all. DeRozan in fact looks noticeably improved thus far this season and has ultimately ended up being the one who surpassed Gay. Arguably always surplus to requirements, Gay subsequently became extremely surplus to requirements, and at an enormous price tag. Even in spite of how recently he had arrived, it was clear that he had to go. But it looked impossible.

[...] In short: Gay is famously inefficient offensively and mediocre defensively, neither of which addresses a need for the Kings.

Getting a quality player for spare parts and no future assets is rarely a bad idea. But when that player is hugely expensive, it needs to make perfect sense. It doesn't here. Sacramento is perhaps guilty of the same thinking that got Toronto in trouble, that a pure talent infusion will offset the poor fit of said talent.

Moreover, they've been suckered into the myth of Gay's talent. Rudy Gay is one of the most tantalizing players in the NBA. He looks incredible, a general manager's dream. In a workout situation, he has everything a team wants. Tall and athletic with body control, a handle, and a jump shot, he looks as though he should be an all-world player. But it has never been this way. It most likely never will be this way. Gay gives off the appearance that he can be the next Carmelo Anthony or Kevin Durant, but never has he come especially close to doing so.

Gay isn't as skilled as it looks like he should be, or as perception would have you believe. Memphis knew this when they re-signed him, Toronto should have known this when they traded for him, and Sacramento definitely should know it now. The Kings aren't trading for Gay in the misguided belief that he will become a superstar, but they are trading for him -- and paying a hefty price in pure salary, as well as the basketball assets they gave up -- in the belief that he will be a significant help to their team. We don't have much evidence of that being true, though. The teams he has been on to date have been unnervingly similar without him than when with him. Being an upgrade to Travis Outlaw and John Salmons isn't that hard. Being worth $19.3 million is.

Gay has a player option for next season, and there is a chance he opts out of it. If he does, he does so only to re-sign long term. If Gay opts out of $19 million next season, he won't get $19 million again in 2014/15, but he might re-sign for four years and upwards of $50 million. Sacramento, then, has a few scenarios that might play out. They could watch him walk at the end of the season, they could keep him around for next year at the exorbitant price of $19,317,326, or they could pay the price to re-sign him. Considering the price to re-sign him will be excessive, this option means being stuck to an overpaid player with no remaining upside in full knowledge that he doesn't help your team as much as someone at his price band should do.

The only way this is not the case is if Gay proves to be a considerable help to the Kings on the court. And this is something that is tough to imagine occurring.

The Kings didn't pay a big cost to acquire Gay in terms of basketball assets. They traded three deep bench backups and their second-best point guard for their new best small forward, and everyone else is irrelevant. But that just isn't the point.

In this current economic climate, NBA franchises are imploring to us that they're losing too much money and need to redraft the entire collective bargaining agreement, while also continuing to throw the gross national product of Micronesia at a whole host of players that don't deserve it. (Memphis are as guilty of this as anyone, with their wildly excessive max contract to Rudy Gay.) While complaining with one arse that their expenditure outweighs their income, owners are using their second arse to wildly overpay the underdeserving, greatly increasing that expenditure level while under pressure from nothing but their own aspirations. We're looking at an impending lockout a mere 11 months after learning that Johan Petro got an 8 figure contract. Joe Johnson got the fifth highest contract in the history of the sport. Rudy Gay got the max. Chewbacca lives on Endor. It does not make sense.

The first really really really really ridiculously big contract of the offseason so far belongs not to LeBron James or Steve Novak, but to Memphis forward Rudy Gay. Reportedly, the team intend to re-sign him to a four year maximum salary contract, with a fifth player option/ETO year at the end.

Gay is a restricted free agent, who was no serious threat to accept his qualifying offer. This is partly because it was small ($4,422,784), partly because of the very real threat of a far less player-friendly CBA coming into force next summer, and partly because this is the summer where everyone is willing and able to spend. Memphis could have played the long game, waited it out, maade a fair offer to Rudy (i.e. about $11 million a year) and let the market dictate his ultimate value. Matching rights were their friend. However, they've not done that, jumping out early and wildly overpaying a second stringer to a maximum salary contract. Has that ever worked well, ever? It has not.

Memphis's supposed logic behind the move is to avoid having a team sign Gay to a frontloaded contract which they will not be able to afford next season (20% of the money of any non-minimum salary contract can be paid up front, which is what Portland tried to do to Utah with the Paul Millsap deal. Yet their way to offset that risk seems to have been to pay him a deal that they can't afford in any year. That logic is entirely counter-intuitive, and will sting the team for a while. It was a never a case of max-him-or-lose-him, yet the Grizzlies seem to have treated it as such.

At times like this, you wish you had that 2011 first rounder you traded for Ronnie Brewer, whom you are now letting walk as an unrestricted free agent. But sadly not.

(Note: Seemingly involved in everything, Minnesota were said to have targeted Gay this summer, apparently unaware that they just drafted three small forwards, traded for Martell Webster and already have Corey Brewer. Despite the bad fit, I was all for the move, as it would have meant a trio of Gay-Love-Sessions in Minnesota. Alas, it is not to be.)

Stu Scott openly speculates "guess Rudy Gay's not going back", but I'd rather believe that he is, and that Henry will slide in next to him at two guard. If it does not happen, however, Henry and Sam Young will be a reasonably effective small forward combination. But if it does not happen, Memphis will soon be back in the high lottery.