August 31, 2018

[...] Per the above, the core of the team is the quartet of Westbrook, George, Adams and Roberson. That foursome is a fearsome defensive group - Westbrook can do it, even if he so often chooses not to, while the other three are among the league's best at their positions. Roberson in particular provides invaluable help all over that half of the court, as seen in the team's second-half struggles last season without him before Corey Brewer provided a patch-up job to close things out.

That quartet, however, is also terribly spaced. George is a plus outside shooter as long as he is not in a three-point competition, but the rest are not at all. Adams leaves the paint on offence only to screen, Westbrook has never been a good outside shooter (perhaps because he jumps so high and does not hold onto his follow-through), and Roberson is infamously a non-shooter. [...]

[...] As a one-year aberration, this is navigable, albeit not ideal. The concern though is how it shapes the core going forward.

Of the core four, Westbrook is the flagship of the team, the designated Supermax recipient, the one posting historic numbers, the flawed genius who will never give up. Adams is almost as invaluable at centre, and George, while the most movable of the three, is also in theory the perfect counterbalance to those two.

That, then, leaves Roberson. The defensive specialist, the rebounder, the man most noticeable by his absence, yet maybe the one whose salary may prevent the team from making the required upgrades that it needs, through no fault of his own.

Until Brewer plugged the gap, the Thunder struggled horribly without Roberson last year. Much as we may cite their good defensive units and personnel, Roberson is the hub of it just as much as Adams is. as evidenced by the team's defensive ratings last year. Prior to his injury, with him on the court, the Thunder had a 96.4 defensive rating that climbed to 108.3 when he was off of it.

That said, the struggles without him were only partly due to Roberson's own impact. In large part, they were also due to the lacklustre options that replaced him. Abrines was a timid shooter who had too many nothing games, Terrence Ferguson took even fewer dribbles than he, and although he was the best defender of the bench, Josh Huestis was somehow even less of an offensive threat that Roberson, while not being the tour de force on defence. Singler wasn't trusted at all, and ultimately, two point guard line-ups featuring Felton became a turned-to option, such was the plight at the position sans Roberson. Brewer shined in relative terms by virtue of being able to play both ends of the court capably, not because he was especially good.

It is to the Thunder's credit that they have been able to upgrade their team despite the cap crunch this summer, even if it relies upon a favourable projection of the remainder of Dennis Schroeder's career to do so. The Thunder are a good team, finishing last season with a 48-34 record and the fourth overall seed in the Western Conference despite a slow start adjusting to their new personnel, one they quickly remedied. But the path from there to a title is a long one that relies upon the right balance of players, both core and role, which they are unlikely to have given their significant outside shooting dearth. They surely cannot achieve great success when they are so likely to be either league-worst or second-worst in such a vital efficiency category.

Internal growth projections for the Thunder's shooting disparity are not favourable. Westbrook would have to make a significant post-30 improvement, and in five years, Schroeder has somehow gone back under the 30% mark again. Felton has managed only a 32.9% career mark in 13 seasons. Abrines has the best looking stroke, but his physical profile makes a high volume of shots hard to foresee, while Patterson's knee problems have seen him really regress as a player. Ferguson could be a good one, but needs to prove himself capable of a sizeable role for that to be of true value. The same is true of rookie Hamadou Diallo, whose form thus far has been better than his results. Adams and Noel have shown no signs and should be on the offensive glass anyway. And although Grant is now likely getting the starting stretch four role, he has never been a good one anyway. [...]

[...] As constructed, the Thunder are looking at significant expenditures both immediate and longer terms. The remedies for the two are different; as above, sacrificing either or both of Abrines and Patterson can save more money this year, if so required. Abrines however expires after this season, yet the Thunder already have a near-$150 million committed payroll for next season. Short of something shocking regarding Westbrook, George or Adams, if savings to the core are required, Roberson thus defaults to being in the firing line. Grant is also far from immune, earning much the same amount as Roberson, yet it is hereby assumed that Roberson has the better trade value, thus moving him better aids the competitive window. He has been treated as a core player hitherto for a reason, after all.

It will be hoped, then, that remedies are not required.

Shooting isn't everything, but to be a title winner, a team cannot have such a glaring weakness. If the Thunder feel they are able to keep the core four together and work the margins sufficiently well to get into legitimate contention without the need for cost-cutting, that would be grand. If they feel they need to change the core talents without having to cut salary, and can compile trade scenarios to remake yet improve the team without a focus on saving money, that would also be fine. The check book has been wide open of late, and were it to stay as much, this may be a non-issue.

But if they cannot keep this spending up, perhaps Roberson will have to be on the chopping block. May I suggest Dallas?

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June 29, 2017

Andre Roberson
SF, 6’7, 210lbs, 25 years old, 4 years of experience

The .566% true shooting percentage of 2015-16, with both Durant and Westbrook to flank him, dropped back down to .510% this past season, and the three-point shooting dropped back to 24.5%. Roberson’s indi-vidual offensive skills seems not to have developed any (as evidenced by a free throw stroke that has dropped from 70.0% as a rookie to 42.3% last year), and as the team has weakened around him, it has become harder to mask this. Roberson can’t cut on a floor with no spacing, nor can he shoot over it. The defence really is that good on the perimeter. But if Kanter’s incredible one-on-one offence is not considered important enough to offset his poor team defence, then swap two of those words around and have the same opinion towards Roberson.

Player Plan: Entering restricted free agency. A good baseline comparison would be Al-Farouq Aminu, who received four years and $30 million just before the cap spiked (though knowing it would). That would be a good result here too.

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December 23, 2013

Oklahoma City -­ Andre Roberson: In his three games on assignment, Roberson averaged 17.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 3.3 steals. His physical tools, energy and athleticism make things happen, as his D-­League stint demonstrate. However, foul prone on defense and without a consistent offensive weapon to call his own, Roberson will no doubt be back to further these aspects of his game.

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October 18, 2013

[...] But despite this more conservative spending, the rookie scale, maximum salary and minimum salary amounts continue to increase year-by-year, as do the salary cap itself and the value of the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Players still worthy of the max still get it -- there just happened to not be too many candidates this season -- and countless others still get the minimum. The rookie scale is still mostly an automatic 120 percent affair, with only Dennis Schroeder and Andre Roberson receiving less than that this season, and roughly the same proportion of available exception money is being used now as it was there.

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