August 31, 2018

[...] It does not help that the team's best shooting options outside of George are Abrines and Patterson, the two movable expiring mid-range salaries per the above who could otherwise theoretically be moved to provide short term financial relief. It further does not help that Grant is a limited shooter from the outside, and Schroeder is a sub-par one for a lead guard as well. It only makes it worse that both Noel and third string point guard Raymond Felton are also not plus shooters, and that while Terrence Ferguson projects to be a decent shooter in his future, he is not one yet. Luwawu-Cabarrot has a similar projection yet has not done enough in two years to show himself as being worthy of a spot in the rotation; the rotation, then, features one good shooter (George), two decent ones who do little else, don't do anything significant to get open and who would ideally be salary dumped (Abrines and Patterson), and a bunch of mediocre to bad shooters. [...]

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June 29, 2018

Nerlens Noel
PF/C - 6’11, 220lbs – 24 years old - 5 years of experience

Right. So.

This was a disappointing year for Noel. It started out with him wanting a maximum salary contract in free agency, and it ended with him being benched behind Maxi Kleber and Salah Mejri and getting suspended. A thumb surgery played a part, certainly, but ultimately, Noel just got straight-up benched a lot of the time.

This supposedly is a player with NBA star potential, who could be Marcus Camby-like, a player who combines athleticism, activity and energy with genuine timing and length. A disruptive interior presence who makes plays on the ball defensively, runs and rolls hard offensively, and has enough ball skills to capitalise on all that which his physical profile offers him.

Instead, as a player, he is….fine.

To be sure, Noel does have most of those traits. He has very quick hands, shows some passing vision at times, and has the foot speed to in theory be an excellent perimeter defending big. Yet he oscillates between being too aggressive and too passive, and seems not to have improved in five NBA seasons. Indeed, while his skill level seems to have stagnated, his minutes, impact and reputation all seem to have declined.

So why can he never make it work? When does it stop being other people’s fault?

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June 29, 2017

Nerlens Noel
PF/C, 6’11, 228lbs, 23 years old, 4 years of experience

Worth the risk (for both contract and attitude reasons) on a team that sorely lacked for athleticism and even more sorely lacked for rebounding, both of which he can very much call strengths. Noel represents the athletic potential-laden big they have sought after for so many years, With the trade market for him having been so poor prior, it is unlikely that the free agent market will be all that amazing a few months later; never-theless, Noel will cost money to keep. And this is what years of trying to spend a lot of money was designed for.

Player Plan: Entering restricted free agency. Match any offer, and hope to get him for nearer $80 million than $100 million.

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July 5, 2014

Nerlens Noel - Noel will be the best player from the 2013 draft, barring more significant injuries. There is no reason why this as-near-as-is 7 footer with wingspan, athleticism, instincts, anticipation, body control and hustle should not average 10 points and 3 blocks per game at his peak. The offensive end is less certain, as is the fit alongside Joel Embiid, but that's all stuff that can be worked out down the right. As of right now, the Sixers landed the two best talents in back-to-back drafts without a number one overall pick to do so. And the fact that both have been injured sufficiently to keep the tank open is even better.

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November 6, 2013

[...] The lure of first-round picks is in what they can yield, not what they always do. It is well established, of course, that many first-round picks are failures relative to expectation, and this is truer the lower they are. However, first-rounders can yield star talent, star talent that has no choice but to sign with you. It can yield quality role players for basement prices, and it can yield contributors in any form you choose. Most importantly, however, first-rounders are always young and cheap. Bad teams need this to get good, and good teams need this to stay good when the market forces and punitive luxury taxes designed to break them up necessitate they cut costs. Talent is talent, but cheap, young talent is the best type of talent.

Back at the start of the summer, Utah took on a whopping $25 million in salary that it didn't want in the forms of Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush, purely to acquire two first-round picks and three second-round picks from the Golden State Warriors. The Jazz did this because it was more beneficial to their long-term rebuilding goal to target first-round picks, and that amount of money is now the cost of acquiring them. Or at least, it should be. First-round picks should be a valued commodity, much more than they were. Now, it seems as though they finally are.

A cursory look at the market indicates this change in philosophy. The last few deals to have included first-round picks include:


- Washington trading a pick (top-12 protected in 2014, top-10 protected through 2019, thereafter unprotected) along with Emeka Okafor in exchange for Marcin Gortat.

- Indiana trading a pick (lottery protected through 2019, thereafter unprotected) along with Miles Plumlee and Gerald Green in exchange for Luis Scola

- Boston acquiring first-rounders in all of 2014, 2016 and 2018 as a part of the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett deal

- New Orleans acquiring Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson in exchange for the rights to Nerlens Noel and a 2014 first-round pick

- Toronto acquiring a 2016 first-round pick from New York -- along with two second-round picks, Steve Novak and Marcus Camby -- in exchange for Andrea Bargnani

In that list, we mostly see first-rounders traded for quality. Hall of Fame players like Pierce and Garnett, fringe All-Stars like Holiday or non-lottery picks for a legitimate starting center in Gortat. The ones where we don't see that -- the deals for Scola and Bargnani -- therefore stand out as bad deals for that reason. The inclusion of the first-round picks in each instance leaves the recipient team drastically overpaying for backup-caliber forwards. And if he's not re-signed or extended, the Gortat deal might join them.

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