J.J. Redick

[Matt] Janning went to summer league with both the Suns and Celtics, and impressed. He averaged 12.6 points and 5.4 rebounds for Phoenix, alongside 11.5 points and 5.0 rebounds, and when both teams tried to sign him afterwards, he took the one offering the most guaranteed money ($25,000). Craft and guile more than size and speed were the reasons behind Janning's surprising success; versatility, sense, and decent jumpshot/ballhandling are skills that translate, even if 6'4 and 195lbs don't. He probably can't defend his position, but then again, J.J. Redick never used to be able to do that either. Yet he can now.

The teams projected to be over the $70,307,000 luxury tax threshold in 2010 include Boston ($77.8 million, assuming Sheed got nothing), Dallas ($84.5 million), Denver $83.8 million), Houston ($73.6 million after the Trevor Ariza/Courtney Lee trade), the L.A. Lakers ($91.9 million before Shannon Brown), Orlando ($92.6 million), Portland ($72.8 million) and Utah ($75.3 million). Some of those teams will never get under the tax threshold, and some of them won't try. But some will, and even those that don't make it will probably pawn off excess salary onto the teams with cap space they're otherwise struggling to use. Here are some such dumps that I'm officially predicting, apart from the ones that I'm not.

8) Something from Orlando

- Orlando has a $92 million payroll because the father of creative financing, Otis Smith, can't creative finance to save his life. The Magic's ownership just keep cutting him bigger and bigger checks, letting him sign and retain whoever he wants and whatever the cost is. It's kind of ludicrous, yet such generosity has allowed the Magic to assemble a competitive team, more with financial muscle than craft. (If you're a Magic fan who doesn't thank ownership every day for this, there's something wrong with you. Organisations win championships.) However, is there a limit to this spending? By matching Chicago's offer sheet to J.J. Redick, Orlando will be CTCing for $15 million this year just on Redick, after the luxury tax and signing bonus are taken into account; all that for a backup shooting guard. Was that the final straw?

[...] That leaves a market with few shooters on it. And those that are good shooters are either unsuitable or unavailable. Mike Miller's days of being able to defend opposing guards are pretty much over. Kyle Korver can't really do it either. I wouldn't want Quentin Richardson to attempt it. Anthony Morrow is desirable, but is not easy to get. J.J. Redick is also desirable, but he's restricted, and owned by a team who has spent extremely generously in the last two years. Roger Mason is OK, but he's no starter. And then there's Ray Allen, who, while an absolutely perfect fit for Chicago's roster, is setting records for Boston in the NBA Finals. He should be considered unavailable until further notice.