June 16, 2014

A vexed Chad Posthumus.

As is obvious from the numbers, Posthumus is a rebounding specialist. As if to reinforce this, here's a quote from his coach, Sean Woods:

"Nothing comes natural to him from a scoring standpoint. The only thing that comes natural is he can go get the basketball."

This is not really what you want to hear about a 23 year old senior, and yet that quote is from a mere few months ago. It speaks to an honest truth - outside of his size and rebounding, everything else about Posthumus's play is underdeveloped.

Nevertheless, Posthumus's size and rebounding are legitimate. Standing at a well built as-near-as-is 7 foot tall, with a 7'3 wingspan, Posthumus looks every bit the part of the NBA centre. His 10.7 rebounds per game tied for seventh in the country with Ryan Watkins of Boise State (see below), and his 4.1 offensive rebounds per game were third behind only Watkins and Jarnell Stokes. Posthumus put up this totals in only 25.5 minutes per contest - his 16.6 rebounds per 40 minutes was second in the country behind only Ryan Canty of Fordham (who averaged 3.0 points and 6.2 rebounds in 15 minutes a game), and was third behind only Canty and Hofstra's Stephen Nwaukoni in rebounds per 40 minutes when pace adjusted. You can quite comfortably say, then, that Posthumus was the best rebounder in the country. And with his size and frame that stacks up to any league in the world, this will likely stay true where he goes as a pro.

Posthumus plays hard and is a tireless worker on the glass. With a big wide frame, Posthumus is always fighting for rebounding positioning, and boxing out persistently if not always legally. This of course leads to high foul rates and a jarring numbers of turnovers for one so unskilled offensively (recording 43 of them in the first 16 games of this season) - Posthumus is always active, which means he is always fouling, committing over the back fouls, shoving, reaching in where he shouldn't be and hitting all shooters and drivers (not always particularly impactfully either). Nevertheless, the activity, size and strength are what make him the rebounder he is. It is a mostly effective means of play, if not for very long. Fouling is a virtue, up to a point.

However, everything outside of the rebounding and fouling is to be questioned. Recording 7 assists alongside 66 turnovers all season is a pretty lamentable start to this list of concerns, but it goes much further than that. Much as he calls for the ball in the post, Posthumus is a very limited offensive player, finishing in the paint when he is uncontested or has a significant size advantage but a creator of very little offense in the post, and absolutely none outside of it. Posthumus is an efficient finisher, but it is not on difficult shots. There is no jumpshot, a poor free throw stroke (the form isn't actually that bad, save for a little snatching motion, yet it just does not go in), and he leaves the paint only to screen. Posthumus has his uses on offensively as a screener, as a target, as a collector of fouls on the defense and (mostly) as an offensive rebounder, but his individual scoring ability is very limited, and his passing game even more so. He also struggles badly with a double team, although leaving the Ohio Valley Conference is probably putting an end to his double teaming days anyway.

Defensively, Posthumus's size, strength and competitiveness are once again a virtue. He picks up some blocks, both on his man and on help defense (although he can sometimes be found forgoing challenging a shot in favour of getting rebounding position earlier), and as ever he wins possessions for his team. Here, though, his lack of speed is a bigger concern. Slow to rotate, Posthumus picks up fouls by putting his paws on players rather than beating them to the spot, does not like to come out to defend the perimeter, and is not effective when he does. The work rate is there, but the foot speed is not, and the instincts are not much more advanced than the offensive ones.

On the few occasions he played against better quality opposition, Posthumus has had mixed results. Against the aforementioned Stokes, Posthumus fouled out in 26 minutes with only 4 points and 5 rebounds, and despite a 21 point 18 rebound performance against a UCLA team with good size and a steady 12/12 against Matt Stainbrook and Xavier, three sub-par outings in a year against a small but disciplined Belmont team that should have had no matchup for him attest to how Posthumus's size is his only major asset right now. He dominated smaller competition, putting up 20 points in 20 rebounds against NAIA school Asbury, yet dropped off notably in conference play.

Posthumus, then, remains highly untested and unproven, and will have to work his way up through the professional ranks, adding to his game as he goes. He looks like Aaron Gray with the eye test, and plays like Franko Kastropil, but he might have to settle for less than both unless his skill level makes noteworthy improvements. The size, the rebounding, the recognition of his limitations and the tireless work ethic are nice. Now he needs more.

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