June 29, 2018

Zach LaVine
SG - 6’5, 185lbs - 23 years old - 4 years of experience

Missing the majority of the season – at the start, at least – was expected. It was known when trading for him that LaVine that he had suffered a torn ACL and would be out indefinitely, so to penalise him for that would be unjust.

What wasn’t known was quite how well he would play and fit upon his return. This part, unfortunately, is not favourable.

It is true to say that LaVine was not at his best when he came back, but to simply say that sells it short. LaVine missed a lot of shots, to be sure, but many if not most of them were bad shots. So badly did he want to assert his credentials as a half-court scorer that he played as though he was Kobe, repeatedly pulling up off the dribble from mid-range (25.5% from 16-23 feet) and outside (34.1% on a high volume of unnecessarily difficult attempts). This offensive aggression would be one thing if LaVine was a proven scorer seeking to re-establish his rhythm. But he isn’t.

Moreover, it was all he did. Not moving the ball much and playing little defence, LaVine seeks only to score, as if to prove his health. He would catch and attack, and while some aggression is good, ball stopping is not. Especially ball stopping that comes with particularly poor defensive effort.

It is all redeemable. A good summer, better health, better rhythm, better discipline, better second efforts, and a better team around him, will all yield better results, as will no longer trying to always bring the ball up. But the results thus far for LaVine in Chicago are not good. And right as free agency rolls around, too.

Player Plan: Entering restricted free agency. If a big offer comes in, then, much as it would not be good PR to have to do it, the Bulls might have to let him go. He has not proven himself as worthy of a contract as his name recognition and perceived potential might get. A Mirotic-style contract would be a good way to go here if possible, but that remains to be seen. If someone rocks up with a $16 mil per annum offer, then, welp. That said, as cap space dries up, this is a good year for him to be a FA. So it might all be fine.

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June 29, 2017

Zach LaVine
PG/SG, 6’5, 189lbs, 22 years old, 3 years of experience

Finally being moved off the ball in the half-court offence - a move to correct something that should never happened - has seen LaVine more than halve his turnover rate. It has also reduced his assist rate and re-bounding rate, casting him in the role of scorer. And before getting hurt, LaVine made good strides at proving he was one. Although his free throw rate has declined year on year, the three-point rate has gone up, as does the efficiency. LaVine is doing this while creating many of those looks and shooting off the dribble. But he also does it alongside little defence, and while not using his athleticism to slash to the rim much except in transition. For all the important scoring developments, there is a lot of work to do. And this, combined with the injury, ought to mean that LaVine goes unextended. In Chicago, LaVine should be the offensive focal point, or will be when the Wade situation is resolved. He will have plenty of opportunity to prove himself. But he still has a fair amount to prove, especially his health.

Player Plan: One years of rookie scale salary remaining. Going to get the opportunity very soon to be a go-guy in what should be a system that befits his talents and gives him plenty of freedom. He will be given a lot. He will have to earn the right to keep it.

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June 17, 2014

Jumps like a young Mark Deeks in his prime.

Zach LaVine, UCLA, Freshman, 6'5 180lbs

2013/14 stats: 24.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.2 bpg, 2.0 fpg, 1.1 TOpg, 44.1% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 69.1% FT


LaVine is the best athlete on this list, and the best athlete on most lists. He is dynamic and spectacular, drizzled with potential. The production isn't there yet, but the upside is real.

While his skills aren't at the level of his athleticism, they are there. Notwithstanding a mediocre free throw percentage in his only collegiate season, LaVine is a decent shooter already, from both mid-range and long. He jab steps, shoots a pull-up and already has NBA range, showcasing plenty of shot making talent with more than a dollop of flair. He jumps high to shoot and also drives a bit in the half court, often using (perhaps overusing) a spin move and able to make tough, acrobatic finishes of all kinds. LaVine is right side dominant and needs to pass more rather than force the action, especially on the break, where he often goes for the hero play rather than the percentage one, but the scoring profile is a good one.

Some project LaVine as a point guard, but this is ambitious, and perhaps born out of his lack of true shooting guard size. LaVine has never demonstrated much in the way of time and score management in the time he has had at point, nor a good floor game. He does not make plays out of the pick-and-roll much, still drives mostly to score, and makes too many errors, both in passing and handling. There is scope there in the sense that LaVine could be a top point guard defender, an unstoppable ball handler in transition and a solid-enough handler in the half court, but it's not optimum. LaVine should be let loose as a scorer, and while any point guard can be a scorer, it doesn't fit all to be so.

At his best, LaVine is running the lane all day, cutting off the ball, spotting up and committing himself to a pesky defensive game. That is all more befitting of a two guard. Defensively, LaVine's athleticism makes him projectable - his fundamentals, stance, footwork and effort all need work and consistency, but there is again something to work with. If he can defend the quickest opposing point guards, that's an ancillary benefit.

Ultimately, LaVine needs some work in all facets of the game. He needs to be much more effective off of the ball as he does not currently do much without it, and if he is to play with it, he has a lot to work on. There are instincts there, but they are those of a two guard.

LaVine is not raw, just unfinished, and moreso than most. His career can go many different ways, and that is mostly a good thing. Whoever picks him will have something to develop, to sculpt, to hone. And even if he doesn't develop as much as he might, he will have an impact on the court for as long as he has those physical gifts. It's not a can't-miss pick, but with the increased pace and space at the highest level, LaVine will be more NBA ready than he was college ready.

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