Insert Intricate Wordplay

In the unlikely event that you hadn't noticed, defense wins championships.

In the 6 games of this NBA Finals series, the Celtics ran about 2 perimeter isolation plays, not including ones at the end of quarters. They didn't need to run any. The offense took care of itself from running only the simplest stuff. All they had to do was push the ball off of Laker misses and turnovers, occasionally post up Kevin Garnett, have the shooters run to the wings on the break, and keep setting screens. As well as let Ray Allen shoot open threes.

The defense is what won it. (By the way, I feel like I'm telling you what you already know with this post, but oh well. I feel obliged to write something amateur. I'd speculate about why Jackson left Lamar Odom in, but I can't be bothered.) L.A.'s offense was contained with relative ease. The only times the Lakers could get the ball in the paint in the last three games were on entry passes to Pau Gasol, and Pau's options from there were limited to the extra-pass, the re-feed, or staggering to the rim like a drunk pre-teen girl looking for some balls to fumble. They became nothing more than a turnover, a shot clock waster, and a back rimmer respectively (giggidy) as Boston routinely denied the Lakers every option possible from their multi option playbook.

Kobe Bryant could not get to the rim. The best player on the planet at contorting his body and knifing his way through holes that the defense did not know they that had left, suddenly found a defense that hadn't left any. All but a handful of Bryant's points came from contested jumpshots, a resource which dries up eventually, no matter how good you are at plundering it. Whenever the Lakers attempted to make the skip, extra or entry passes that Boston made so routinely, a turnover ensued, as a Celtic defender always managed to get a hand in the way. Not a single thing came easy. And that's how it should be. The Lakers defense had no such boast. Instead, they had Vladimir Radmanovic.

Boston wins the NBA title while starting a point guard who passes up layups, a centre whose shooting range is as long as his right forearm, and a primary backup big who can't get his layups above rim height. Three of their top seven players can be doubled off of. And they won anyway.

This is the mock-up with which to style your team, even if Danny Ainge's methodology in doing so was decidedly fucked up. Get yourselves some athletes, who know the meaning of defensive rotation. Then teach them how to make jumpshots like Ray Allen.

Congratulations to the Celtics on the most bipolar 24 months in NBA history. It's nice to see you finally get rewarded after being such a historically barren franchise. I will now ooze maximum resentment towards a team that I don't especially like, but one that I respect highly, and whom thoroughly deserve the crown of the best team in the NBA. Contrived celebrations all around.



Alternative post: 39 POINTS??? 39 POINTS?????

39 POINTS?????

You shitting me?

Now someone quickly Youtube Garnett's "interview" with Michelle Tafoya. God invented the internet for this reason.

NBA Finals Anal

By unpopular demand, I won't talk about baseball. Instead, I'll talk about basketball. I shall retread the observations of the hundreds of other writers who are covering the subject, while adding no unique spin. It's how we roll around here.

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1) There's no reason why Lamar Odom shouldn't be able to defend Kevin Garnett better than he does. None whatsoever. He has the length to bother his jumpshots as well as anyone can bother them, the athleticism to prevent any easy drives to the basket, and the reasonable man to man post defense to cope with the rare times that Garnett plays back to the basket. But he doesn't do it that well. And not only does he struggle at it, but he doesn't do it much at all, as Pau Gasol seems to end up with the assignment a lot of the time. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Also, this is somewhere where Andrew Bynum would come in handy.

2) Something that also doesn't make a lot of sense is Vlad Rad starting and playing as much as he is. I understand the Lakers need for shooting and spacing. I do. But Radmanovic is spectacularly bad in all other aspects of the game. (His rebounding numbers in this series have been quite good, but try and think of a single Radmanovic rebound. You can't - they were all gimmies that his replacement could have gotten, too.) And when you're matched up agaisnt a team that starts Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett at the 2-3-4 spots, you're left with the unattractive prospect of having Radmanovic guarding one of those three, particularly when Kobe Bryant spends so much time on Rajon Rondo. And Radmanovic just can't bloody do that. Leave him in as a token starter if you must, but don't actually PLAY him. Trevor Ariza can't shoot, but he still needs these minutes. Note - this is also a situation where Andrew Bynum would come in handy, as Radmanovic wouldn't be a starter.

3) This is more of a general point than a Finals specific point, given his performance thus far, but people should probably stop calling the "Celtics Big Three" by that name. Ray Allen never was as good as his two peers, and unlike those two, Ray Allen has also lost something. He's a fine third option to have, but the label "Big Three" implies some kind of parallel between all parties, that everything isequal, and that each is as important as the others. And that's wrong. Maybe they should switch it to Rondo instead.

4) In the fourth quarter of game three, Kevin Garnett hit a long jumpshot, one that boosted his shooting percentage to about 84%. The camera cut to Garnett running back on defense, and showed him puffing his cheeks with gusto, like a man who had just narrowly avoided driving into his own mother. Perhaps there's something in this "Garnett not clutch" thing. (Still, at least it wasn't a fallaway.)

5) Kobe picked up a technical in the first half of game three. At some point in the fourth quarter, when Kobe protested a rather obvious foul call made against him, he complained for a minute, and then walked away. Mark Wunderlich (great name by the way) walked after Kobe, yelling aggressively, almost as if he was goading Kobe into his secodn technical. Am I the only one who saw this? Is this really kosher? It seems unlikely that Wunderlich wanted to T him up given the Donaghy accusations out this week, but still.

6) Last year, Sasha Vujacic couldn't dribble and run at the same time. He couldn't shoot, pass, play defense, or generally avoid fucking up. Now he's the second best player in the NBA Finals. How the hell did that happen? I will now go grow my hair out long, hone my jumpshot, and give myself an Eastern European girls name. Hi, I'm Martha.

7) Sam Cassell's play in this series is startling, weird, and amusing if you don't like the Celtics. Every time he touches the ball, he winds up shooting it, and whether he hits the shot or not, it wasn't a good one to take. Essentially, Sam Cassell is out there playing like Eddie House.....on a team that also has Eddie House. Strange times. (Insert Anchorman quote beginning "Take it easy, Champ".) Doc Rivers finally figured this out in game three, gave Cassell the quick hook, and let Eddie House himself play the Eddie House role, but not before Cassell had managed to get up 4 shots in 7 minutes. Hooray for heady veteran play!

8) Speaking of heady veteran play, congratulations to P.J. Brown for needlessly starting on Jordan Farmar, travelling, setting moving screens, being unable to get his layups above rim height (that old quandry!) and geenrally doing absolutely nothing worthwhile apart from one frozen rope jumpshot. It was certainly the signing that put the Celtics over the top. And I heartily endorse having P.J. stay out there for 18 minutes in game three doing absolutely nothing worthwhile as Leon Powe watches on the sidelines, wondering quite what the hell he did wrong in game two where he had more points scored than minutes played. I heartily endorse this because I want the Celtics to lose.

9) If James Posey wasn't a malicous dirty drink driving prick, I could totally respect his game. But, as it is, fuck him.

10) At some point in this series, there's going to be a game where the Celtics score 21 in the fourth quarter, and Kobe scores 23 by himself. It may be tomorrow. You need to remember this.

11) You know that thing where a player runs into a cameraman while chasing a loose ball, there's a few seconds of silence as the director whispers into the announcer's ear, and then the announcer (now aware of the man's name) goes on to congratulate the cameraman's professionalism while generally acting all buddy buddy towards a man whose name he didn't know until ten seconds previously? Yeah. We could probably do without this.

12) The announcing crew for these games has been awesome. Mike Breen is the new industry standard, Jeff Van Gundy is FAR better than I ever would have thought possible, and Mark Jackson is a lot more comfortable and less painful when you give him a third guy to work alongside. They have been intelligent, humorous, and fair. The presentation has been good in general, although bear in mind that I don't get to see the ESPN studio lineup with Jon Barry and friends. (Readers note: I'm not unhappy with this, per se, but our replacement English equivalent over here is absolutely God awful. Just trust me on that.) We even managed to get through game three without a single unnecessary Michael Jordan comparison. Good times.

If they could stop the courtside celebrity shots, particularly those of Jack Nicholson, then we're onto a winner.

That is all. Go Lakers.

Qualifying Offers = Lies

If your team didn't agree to an extension with its starlet young player this past offseason - such as is the case with the Atlanta duo of Josh Childress and Josh Smith, the Chicago duo of Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, amongst others - then you've probably experienced a modicum of conversation as to whether that player will take the one year qualifying offer this offseason rather than the security of a long term deal, leaving the distinct possibility that your team will lose a key player and important asset, for jack shit in return. Talk of this possiblity happening is particularly widespread in the case of Gordon, who hasn't done much to deny it.

Let me half-arsedly set your mind at rest - it's really not that likely.

Or rather, it should be really unlikely. It might happen, but history suggests that it shouldn't. This is a list of all the rookie scale players to have accepted the fifth year qualifying offer in recent times, accompanied by a headshot for no reason other than cosmetics.



Melvin Ely

Season before free agency: 9.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 51% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 3.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 36% shooting
Season after that: 3.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 47% shooting


Melvin Ely is crap. He has had one year of non-crapness in 7 attempts. That one season was, conveniently, the final one of his rookie contract. Never justifying his draft position, this one year gave Ely the chance to make a bit of money, especially given that this was probably his only other chance at a multi-year contract. (Ely was 28 at the time, after joining the league at age 24. No one seems to remember this.) Ely took Charlotte's one year QO of $3,308,615 (which may or may not have been the only contract that they offered) in preference to taking Phoenix's multi year offer, or one from the Warriors.

Ely then played like his usual wank, and is now on a minimum salary contract with the Hornets.





Vladimir Radmanovic

Season before free agency: 11.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season after that: 6.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 42% shooting


Seattle dodged one hell of a bullet here, when Radmanovic turned down their exceedingly generous offer of a 6 year, $42 million. Why he did this, I don't know. Maybe he thought he was worth more. Or maybe he just hated Seattle. Either way, Seattle reacted, dealing him to the L.A. Clippers for Chris Wilcox, a far better player whom they managed to re-sign for half of what Radmanovic turned down.

Radmanovic did manage to somehow coerce a full MLE contract from the L.A. Lakers, a contract which totalled 5 years and $30.427 million. But, when combined with his qualifying offer of roughly $3.1 millionish, Radmanovic managed to lose almost $10 million on the deal, as well as save Rick Sund from himself.





Mickael Pietrus

Season before free agency: 11.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 49% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 7.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 44% shooting
Season after that: N/A


Pietrus has always been a very flawed player, but with the onset of the new Warriors system under Don Nelson, many of these were able to be reasonably well covered up. In the fourth season of his rookie deal, Pietrus turned in comfortably the best season of his four year career, and was courted heavily by Miami. His agent claims to have had four teams offer their full MLE to Pietrus, which makes it odd that he didn't take any of them.

In the end, Pietrus was stuck with the one year, $3,470,771 qualifying offer from Golden State. From there, the inevitable has happened - he has regressed. His stats are backwards, his weaknesses are no better than they were, and his team just missed the playoffs. Suddenly, Pietrus's package seems less attractive. (Giggidy.)





Stromile Swift

Season before free agency: 9.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 45% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season after that: 8.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 49% shooting, 0.8 blocks


Two key things to remember with Stromile's choice to sign the QO:

1) It was for $6.2 million, more than he would have gotten on the open market for the first season of any contract.
2) Memphis made it clear that they would match anything, and wouldn't entertain many sign and trade offers.
3) He really, really didn't want to be there.

(That's three things, but you get the idea.)

Financially, Stromile either breaks about even by turning down the QO and signing a four year MLE deal (which was the deal he signed with Houston after the QO year expired), or he's maybe even slightly ahead on the deal. Unlike most players, his play didn't decline under the QO, and while his numbers have suffered slightly in the last three years, his play remains pretty good.

He did not get his wish for getting out of Memphis, though, as he was traded back there after only one season in Houston. Tough break.






Aaaaaand........that's everyone this decade. I would go back further and include players such as Michael Olowokandi (a pretty resounding example of why not to turn down extensions), but it becomes too difficult to find the right numbers, so I won't. Those 4 are the only rookie scale players to have taken the qualifying offer since the year 2000.

They're 1-4, with only Swift making the right move. (This is unless Pietrus is ridiculously, insanely fortunate.)



First off, it's pretty obvious that 4 people in 4 drafts is not a huge amount of people to accept the qualifying offer. That goes without saying, given that 124 people were drafted in the first round of those 4 drafts. But I said it anyway.

Secondly, note that the one to have made a decent decision to take the qualifying offer was a second overall pick, which had a huge impact on the size of the offer in question. For reference's sake, here is a list of all the qualifying offers for those fourth year rookie scale players from the 2004 draft who did not get extensions:


Emeka Okafor: $7,082,635
Ben Gordon: $6,404,749
Shaun Livingston: $5,809,705
Josh Childress: $4,844,355
Luol Deng: $4,452,574
Andre Iguodala: $3,800,625
Andres Biedrins: $3,609,636
Robert Swift: $3,579,131
Sebastian Telfair: $3,543,834
Kirk Snyder: $3,313,598
Josh Smith: $3,167,882
J.R. Smith: $3,028,241
Dorell Wright: $2,910,104
Delonte West: $2,762,828
Tony Allen: $2,744,299
Sasha Vujacic: $2,605,559
David Harrison: $2,601,474

(Everyone else either got an extension, or have already been waived.)


Not all of these players will get a qualifying offer, because the team does not want them for that price, or indeed any price. In two cases (Swift and Livingston), the qualifying offer might actually be an advisable route, given the serious injuries from which both are struggling to recover. But only in a few cases is the qualifying offer of a significant threat to be a viable option: Emeka Okafor (who turned down a 5 year, $60 million eztension), Ben Gordon (who turned down a 5 year, $50 million extension), and maybe some of the lower players (Allen, Telfair).

Bizarrely, Okafor and Gordon have both had worse years since turning those extensions, which could mean anything. It could make them more likely to take the security while they can still get it, or it could make them more liable to have a third attempt at a successful contract year push.

The other factor here is the deep free agent class, that affects everybody in this list. Pessimists theorise that this may mean more players take the one year QO and make themselves available for the 2009 free agent market instead. Optimists might say that instead, because of the lack of money out there, those offers from their current teams suddenly look alot more lucrative and sensible. You can probably guess which of those two schools of thought I subscribe to.

Either way, it's extremely difficult to imagine those two (plus others, such as Deng and Iguodala) turning down $50+ million, twice. Especially since they haven't done anything to justify turning it down once.




HALF BAKED CONCLUSION FROM HALF-ARSED ANALYSIS:

There is not a lot of recent history on which to deduce whether taking the qualifying offer is a wise/probable decision or not. This, in itself, is indicative of the fact that it's a highly unlikely scenario. And when what little precedent there is shows the move to be a generally unwise one, that only reaffirms the idea that the likelhood of a player choosing to accept the qualifying really is nothing to fear.

Well, except for the two UConn boys.