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Tuesday, 15 September 2009

The Best Of What's Left

Almost all of this year's NBA free agents crop has now been signed. Of the few that remain, most have already finalised which training camp they're going to, and training camp contracts have already begun to be signed. However, these are far from being the only players in the world. A shedload of remaining NBA calibre players remain unsigned, as rosters across the whole of FIBA are being trimmed and cheapened due to the current economic thing that you may have heard about.

At the moment, including qualifying offers that are as-yet pending, there are 421 players in the NBA, out of a potential maximum of 450. That total does not include people who have committed to sign but that haven't done it yet (Garrett Temple, Rodney Carney, Curtis Jerrells, Russell Robinson, etc). Assuming (wrongly) that all of those 421 are here to stay, there are a maximum of 29 places left in the NBA; however, considering that many teams will run with 13 or 14 man rosters this year, and we're already averaging 14 players per team, the real amount is even less than that. As such, there's nothing but a scant few places available in the world's strongest basketball league, and several jillion candidates fighting for them. But this shouldn't stop them from fighting, and nor will it stop me from listing.

There now follows a list of the best of what's left of this year's free agency market. Listed in no particular order. Also note: there's lots of NBA calibre players that aren't in the NBA. But if they're not in this free agents list, then they're signed elsewhere. Check the other countries rosters to find them.



Point Guards

- Raymond Felton: The only guards who shot a worse percentage on inside shots than Raymond Felton last year were Derek Fisher, Luke Ridnour and Sebastian Telfair. The fact that Felton shot only 29% from three point range doesn't help, either. But despite Felton's perpetually inefficient scoring and his career PER of 13.7, the market for Felton shouldn't have been as slow as it has been. It's been non-existent, in fact. The only suitor, it appears, is the Bobcats. A report came out the other day, presumably based out of whispers from Felton's camp, that said a deal in the $7 million a year range would get it done. It probably would. But it's also too much. Felton looks like an inevitable candidate to re-sign for his one year qualifying offer, being as it is for a sizeable (and apt) $5.5 million.

- Nate Robinson: Robinson, too, looks like he's inevitably re-signing to a one year deal. For those unsure of quite how annoying the Knicks 2010 plan is, let me tell you that it's really, really annoying. And if it works out, it will be even more annoying. Not because of jealousy (although that will factor), but because this is no way to manage an NBA team. If you want to make salary cutting moves such as Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington, then feel free to do so. Good move, that one. And if you want to attach an asset to a bad contract just to shift it for more cap space, then that's fine too. But don't do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL. That's not good for the game. And it's also really boring.

- Jamaal Tinsley: Tinsley sat out all of last year (without wanting to) and played only 39 games the season before. He is now 31 years old, and hardly viewed upon in favour by an NBA world that hasn't seen him for God knows how long. But despite all that, despite his startling inconsistency, despite his tendency to be around while crimes are being committed, despite his penchant for cheeseburgers and despite his jarring scoring ineffiency, Jamaal Tinsley is very talented. Not many people can pass and handle like he can, and not many point guards can rebound like him. He can defend pretty well, too. Of course, it doesn't help that Tinsley himself only plays like Jamaal Tinsley can once a week, but there's really a lot of talent there. This is a man who posted a 23 assist game in his rookie year. 23 assists. That's a lot of freaking assists. That one outing may have been 8 years ago, but it was also only 18 months ago that Tinsley was averaging 8.4 assists per game. That, too, is a lot of freaking assists. Miami were said to be interested, but other teams should be too. Unless he's gotten really fat or something.

- Tyronn Lue: Reports came out that said that Tyronn Lue had signed in Greece. Then reports came out that said that Lue had turned down the offer from Greece. Now, a new wave of reports have come out saying that Lue has signed in Greece. I don't know where we stand on that right now. Either way, the team that's trying to sign him (PAOK) only just staved off bankruptcy two months ago, so this doesn't seem like a long term solution. Boston were said to have been chasing Lue at one point, but that broke down, which is a shame because they could use him.

(EDIT: It's now been said, again, that the PAOK transfer fell through because Lue asked for too much money. PAOK have now signed William Avery instead. Slight difference.)

- Carlos Arroyo: Arroyo has been the compelling protagonist in a lot of made-up rumours about him this summer. From Chicago to Milwaukee, via the Clippers and the Sixers, lots of teams were said to have been interested in his services, sometimes with absolutely no truth to it whatsoever. So, always keen to get in on trends, I'll play along; according to an unnamed Western Conference executive, Arroyo is set to sign a three year deal with the expansion North Texas Fresh of the ABA. You heard it here first. You heard it here only. Because it's not true.

- Chucky Atkins: Atkins is not a free agent, yet. But he will be. Currently, Minnesota holds his unguaranteed contract, which has only $760,000 of $3,480,000 guaranteed. They'll probably hold onto it for a while - they essentially have a free player until December - trying to use him as a trade asset. There's lots of teams that need to save money this year more than Minnesota does. But wherever he ends up, Atkins will be a free agent at some point in the next three months, adding another veteran point guard to a market quite heavy in them. The difference is that this one can shoot.

- Earl Boykins: Boykins' year in Italy didn't go too well. At all. He was almost released at Christmas time for going home without permission. Nevertheless, he saw out the season with La Fortezza Bologna, but I don't think they're friends enough for a retrial. This puts Boykins back on the market for an NBA team, should they so choose. If you need a midrange jumpshot-shooting offense-first player with no three point shot and permanent defensive disadvantages, then this is the guy for you.

- Dan Dickau: The Celtics have apparently invited Dickau to training camp, which ones again craps on my stupid theory that no one ever goes to the German league and comes back to the NBA. I don't know why I say these things sometimes.

- Brevin Knight: Knight had a good bounceback season last year, after a few years of steady decline. Oh wait, no he didn't; he boasted a career low PER of 9.3. Never mind then.

- Mike Wilks: Perhaps against my better judgement, I have long advocated the virtues of Mike Wilks. He's only 5'10, which is reason enough to (in fact, as far as I can remember, the only guaranteed contract he ever had was when he was signed and traded to the Bulls; he was waived before playing a game). But he's not that bad. He's been in the NBA for bit parts of 6 years because he's all right. The question now is whether his knee - which he badly tore last October, causing him to miss all of last season - is good to go yet. If it is, then I advocate him as a signing. But only for the inactive list.

- Eddie Gill: Eddie Gill was in the NBA last year. You might have missed this, because it was quiet and pointless. But it happened. Gill was first in the NBA way back in 2000, and he's still going, because there's still Scott Skiles' out there who lobby for veteran point guards. Fun Eddie Gill fact: Eddie Gill scored the 6 millionth point in NBA history. So he'll always have a legacy.

- Jacque Vaughn: Vaughn is now 34, and hasn't been good since he was 26. Last year was particularly bad. It doesn't look as though there's anything left; your front office may disagree, however. You can't put a price on old point guards, apparently.

- Stephon Marbury: No.

- Sean Singletary: True to their policy of not spending a single dollar this offseason, the Bobcats declined Single Terry's team option and left him unrestricted. He has since remained unsigned. Terry played in summer league with the Pistons team, started every game, and did all right, but the Pistons have decided to sign Curtis Jerrells of Baylor to audition for the third point guard spot instead. This can't be good for Singletary's chances.

- Jason Hart: Memphis worked him out at one point; indeed, Memphis worked out every free agent guard at one point. They didn't sign him, though, instead deciding upon the infinitely more talented duo of Allen Iverson and Marcus Williams. The Nuggets ended last season with both Hart and Anthony Carter on the roster (presumably making Hart the shooter of the two), but they've decided they don't need both now, which is probably best. Hart was genuinely decent for the Bobcats back in 2004/05, but that was a while ago now. Since then, it's been mostly nothing.





Shooting Guards

- Ronald Murray: Murray has gone from overrated to underrated. He became overrated after his scoring explosion as a Sonic back in 2003/04; now, he's underrated after a fine season of 6th man scoring for the Hawks. The Hawks had signed Murray to only a one year, $1.5 million contract in the first place, and got great returns for their money, yet now they'd rather pay Jamal Crawford $20 million to do exactly what Murray did last year. It makes no sense, and what makes less sense is how few other suitors Murray has had. Memphis gave him a workout, but that's about it. And this isn't right. You mean to tell me that the Sixers can't crank off $2 million for one year of their untouched MLE to obtain a decent and sorely needed backcourt scorer? He's not the best shooter in the world, but he's better than Willie Green. At everything. He doesn't even have to affect your pretty desperate 2010 situation. This doesn't seem right. If someone signs Ronald Murray for the minimum this year, they'll be stoked with their returns.

- Rashad McCants: McCants has been for workouts with the Nuggets and Cavaliers, and has a camp invite for unguaranteed money from the Heat that he hasn't accepted yet. It's quite the fall for a man who was the second leading scorer on the Timberwolves two years ago on not-terrible efficiency. Last year, though, was a complete brainfart: McCants, always a chucker, chucked more than ever, and his efficiency tumbled off the charts. His defense still consists solely of fouling, and he's less and less interested in offensive continuity. If he calmed down and embraced a role similar to J.R. Smith's on the Nuggets, he might be all right. But it hasn't happened yet.

- Luther Head: A personal favourite of mine, Head would be ideally suited to a team with a superstar swing man, a team that needs a complimentary shooter and defender at the point guard spot, someone who doesn't have to do much dribbling ro playmaking. Think of him as kind of a crap Derek Fisher, with far less ball handling. Someone's got to need this, surely? Boston? Cleveland? No? Damn.

- Thomas Gardner: Gardner has a career PER of 2.4. However, he averages only 7.2 minutes per game for his career, so per 36 minutes that's a PER of 12.0. Which is better. [That was a joke.]

- Salim Stoudamire: The Bucks mercifully waived Salim aabout six weeks ago, and he hasn't been heard from since. Salim is another personal favourite of mine, but the thing with undersized shooting guards is that there's loads of them, and so even the good ones usually only have an NBA shelf life of about 3 years. Salim's had three years and then some, so I don't know where this puts him.

- DerMarr Johnson: DerMarr barely played last season, spending 8 games in the D-League in March and 11 games in Puerto Rico in May. That was it. He's now 29 years old, hasn't corrected the flaws he came into the league with, and is unsigned.

- Coby Karl: I'm telling you. Nuggets. This isn't a scoop; it's just an inevitability. Has your dad ever tried to get you a job at his company? Mine has. He even wanted me to take over his company for a while. It's the done thing. George Karl will do the same. Watch and learn.

- Greg Buckner: Like Chucky Atkins, Buckner is not a free agent. Yet. The Mavericks currently have a 17 player roster, and Buckner's contract is less than 25% guaranteed. This makes him an obvious cut should it come to that; however, there's no doubt that the Mavericks are whoring out this unguaranteed contract as a trade chip, along with those of Drew Gooden and Shawne Williams. If they can't get a deal done (meaning, if they can't get Philly to accept Matt Carroll in a deal for Sam Dalembert), then Buckner will be cut, at which point he is free to join pastures new. If he can find them.

- Kirk Snyder: Snyder was on this list last year. That's the only reason why he's on this one. Latest Kirk Snyder news: after months of being force fed his food and medication, Snyder has been found competent to stand trial. His bond was reduced from $500,000 to $25,000, and his lawyer said they could pay it, so presumably Snyder is now out of jail/hospital. If he is, he is to be fitted with a monitoring device and ordered to stay out of Warren County. No trial date yet.

- Morris Almond: Almond was with the Knicks for summer league, and scored quite highly. Then again, scoring was never his problem. It was expected that the Knicks would bring him in for summer league, but they've already started their summer league signings, and Almond wasn't one of them. So this remains up in the air.

- Juan Dixon: Dixon's days of masquerading as a scoring specialist look pretty much numbered. Last year he did his usual thing, and totalled 261 points on 259 shots. He's all right, but if your team is looking for a shooting specialist at guard, wouldn't they be better off with a player with a true three point shot?

- Bobby Jackson: Jackson's been slowing down for a few years, but he's not done yet. He can't get up and down like he once could (giggidy), but he can still score the ball off the bench. He sounds like a good fit for Boston, even if they don't really know it yet.

- Kareem Rush: For years, Kareem Rush has been signed to be a shooter. But this year, it hasn't happened. Has the league finally cottoned on?

- Mario West: West is supposed to be going back to the Hawks for training camp. Clearly Atlanta thinks he's going to show something that that he's kept craftily hidden for the last two seasons. I know he's really a decent defensive player and all, but West does extremely little on offense. At what point does that cancel out the defense?

- Keith Bogans: Bogans was traded from the Magic to the Bucks partway through last season, but they haven't re-signed him. However, since the Bucks currently only have three backup two guards (Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell and Jodie Meeks) and three backup small forward options (Delfino, Walter Sharpe, Joe Alexander, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute), they surely could use one more.

- Damon Jones: Jones has always been a good shooter, despite all the huge gaping flaws in his game and his excessive swag. The league always needs catch and shoot players, and Jones is one of the best ones left. So why is no one signing him? Well, because they have no reason to. Just know that he's there if you want him.

- Anthony Roberson: The Bulls did the inevitable and waived Roberson in mid-July, after Gar Forman had spent summer league cussing him out for how bad he was. Good times. Roberson is unsigned and unheard of, although Jack McClinton called him "A-Robe" in a Tweet the other day, which was strangely fun. He's still a manslut.




Small Forwards

- Sasha Pavlovic: Any day now, Pavlovic will be waived. And when that happens, he'll probably get a new contract fairly quickly. This is because he has a good reputation, and not because he has a huge degree of skill. I don't want this piece to be too PER-centric - and it kind of gets like that near the bottom - but Pavlovic's career PER is 9.0, and his highest in any season is 12.1. That's crap. The man may have wanted a 6 year, $35 million contract back in the day, but he's worth roughly the minimum. Let's hope no one outbids themself for him.

- Desmond Mason: Mason was one of those "if only he can develop" a jumpshot players for a long time, but those days are long gone. Mason never did develop a jumpshot, and has lost whatever fledgling one he had. He's now a bit part player, a defensive specialist with occasional post offense, whether he wants to be or not. Larry Harris' decision two years ago to give him a 2 year, $10.3 million contract after back to back seasons of 10 PER was pretty stupid at the time, yet now that the contract has expired, Desmond can't even get the minimum. The Thunder have ruled out re-signing him. Tough times.

- Wally Szczerbiak: The days of Wally Szczerbiak being able to play as a big guard are probably over; he was always slow for the position, and he's not gotten any faster. But Wally is still good at the only thing he was ever good at - shooting - and that's not going to change either. He should catch on somewhere, even if Denver decide against him.

- Gerald Green: Green didn't do anything last year to change his reputation. He jumped a lot, scored a bit, and gave back even more at the other end. That said, as flawed as he still is, he's also still good enough to be in the NBA, and he's still only 23. It's surprising that someone hasn't taken a chance on him yet. As reclamation projects go, you could do worse.

- Ime Udoka: There's a rumour that Udoka is to return to the Blazers as a training camp invitee. If he does, then things are looking pretty bleak for him, because the Blazers already have Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum at the small forward position. Udoka is 32, so he's old, but not THAT old, and while he didn't have a very good season last year, his comparatively short NBA career might be good news for his longevity. I'm reaching here, but you can see my point. Probably because I'm not wearing any trousers.

- Ronald Dupree: Dupree is going to go to camp with the Utah Jazz, rightly deserving of his place in the NBA once again. It might not last long, though, because the Jazz are on for their biggest ever payroll by miles. And they won't want to spend on a 15th man unless they have to.

- Rob Kurz: Who was it who wrote that article about Rob Kurz potentially being the Cavaliers missing piece? Yeah. No. He might not even join them, reputedly now favouring the Nuggets instead.

- Bonzi Wells: Wells wants to join the Heat, but no one has said if the Heat want Wells to join them. Every year, Miami seems to obtain a small forward, someone to further guarantee that Dorell Wright never sees the court. This year, they've already gotten Quentin Richardson, and so they don't really need another. They didn't even need Quentin. But must that stop them? (Also, how bad has the Heat's offseason been? If you want to convince Dwyane Wade to stay, don't just rest all your Stan Laurels in the 2010 basket. Do something. Spend some tax. Get some players. Richardson doesn't count. Do what Toronto did. Try and do it better than they did, obviously, but follow their lead. Be proactive, not reactive. You're not holding the cards right now.)

- Linton Johnson: Johnson is to go to camp with Orlando, who have built themselves a nice veteran bench. However, there's not much in it for Lint; Orlando doesn't really need him, because they already have Matt Barnes. And they don't even really need Matt Barnes. So before the ink is dry, someone could still swoop in and give Linton a better option. Probably.

- Patrick Ewing Jr: The Knicks still haven't signed him, and they're carrying a very full roster now. Can't be good news for Pat.

- Sun Yue: The Knicks are reportedly going to be signing Sun Yue. Don't worry, though. You didn't miss out. He'll be a free agent again six weeks time. He's all yours then.

- Joey Graham: After 4 years of up-and-down medicrity, Graham is now out of a job. Speaking of....

- Stephen Graham: He's unsigned as well.

- Ryan Bowen: Look at it this way. Bowen never had any skill. So he can't have lost any, can he?





Power Forward

- David Lee: Lee is either seconds away from re-signing to a one year deal, or he isn't. It depends on who you read. Either way, in a different market, this guy's rocking a five year contract from someone right now. If this was last year, he might have gotten $65 million. It's been a bad year.

- Stromile Swift: Stromile Swift is a far better player, on both ends, than many people seem to give him credit for being. He may not be the most adept at learning the playbook, and he's not able to bast the world's most svelte back-to-the-basket game. But he makes good things happen. He has a career PER of 16.1, for God's sake, and even though last year was a nothing year for him, he's not even 30 yet. It's not like he's lost it all. It was as recently as the 2007/08 season that Swift was a useful scorer and shot blocker off the bench. And it was 18 short months ago that he had one of the more underrated dunks of the decade:



Someone should sign him. Unless Swift really did fall off that much at age 29, they'll be grateful that they did.

(Tyrus still bites on all fakes, by the way.)


- Darius Miles: On the power forward list for the simple reason that he's not the athlete that he was, Darius remains unsigned, which seems both fitting and awkward considering the furore that surrounded his signings last year. Memphis achieved their goal and stiffed Portland, and Darius achieved his goal and got paid. Everyone's a winner, except Portland. And except Darius, who got done for DUI.

- Mike Sweetney: After summer league, we know he's still alive, and we know he had a bag of skills back in the day. Do we really need any more than that? (Note: don't say yes. Even though the answer's yes, don't say yes. I don't want to hear it.)

- Donyell Marshall: Charlie Villanueva told me that he'd keep me posted on Donyell Marshall's situation. True story. I'm not sure I believe him, but he said it anyway. Marshall is apparently considering multiple offers, but the fact that he remains unsigned so late in the day would suggest that none of the offers are particularly brilliant.

- Andre Brown: Isn't it about that time that Andre Brown appeared on someone's training camp roster? I've never been entirely sure of what he's done to deserve it, but it's become an annual thing, so let's not be disappointed here. Someone make it happen. In four out of the last five years, Brown has at least a training camp roster, and dammit I want more. No man should have to fight so hard for a meagre 599 NBA minutes.

- Ruben Patterson: The last full year that Ruben Patterson played in the NBA was his best. As a member of the 2006/07 Bucks, Patterson set career highs in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and field goal percentage, scoring 14.7 points a night on 55% shooting and putting up a PER of 18.5. Since then, though, his NBA career has seen only 20 more games and one unguaranteed minimum salary contract. This isn't befitting of a man of his talent and playing resumé. But then again, he is a 34 year old convicted rapist. So it's swings and roundabouts.

- Paul Davis: Davis claimed on Millionaire Matchmaker that his next contract would be for 5 years and $35 million. If by that, he really meant "I'll be getting a workout with the Heat next offseason," then he was right. But that's all he's gotten.

- Shavlik Randolph: Randolph has worked out for the Heat, as they continue to search for the piece that will keep Wade there in 2010. That sounds like his best bet right now, if not his only bet. Even though Portland unrenounced him after Paul Millsap's QO was signed, there's no room for him there after Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham were brought in.

- Othello Hunter: Hunter played on the Warriors summer league team, but only because the Hawks didn't have one. He is expected to return to the team, even though they don't really need any more. Hunter has a long way to go before he lives up to any Brandon Bass comparisons, but he's all right.

- Malik Rose: Rose's PER has gone downwards or 7 consecutive seasons, as his salary increased for seven straight seasons. The Spurs got this one a bit wrong back in 2002.

- Melvin Ely: It's about time that people realised Melvin Ely was crap. After his one good year in Charlotte, he got an unfounded reputation as a good young post player, and.....no. He doesn't rebound, is a highly inefficient scorer, and is already 31 years of age. He's unsigned for a reason, and the reason is because he's not very good. Even the Hornets, who have struggled for frontcourt depth all season long, realise this now.

- Michael Ruffin: Like Rybo, Ruffin never had anything to give, so he can't exactly have lost it. After sitting needlessly on the Bulls cap for most of last season, he was traded to Portland as necessary filler in the highly worthwhile John Salmons deal, where he actually played a bit for no real reason. Portland then decided to draft and sign two power forwards, which kind of pissed on Muffin's chips. Ruffin is unsigned, and Ruffin is going to stay unsigned, because not even the Bulls need him any more.

- Maceo Baston: Baston will reportedly go to camp with the Pistons. But he shouldn't. Because if he does, he'll lose. The Pistons don't need him, and he doesn't need the Pistons. It's not a good fit at all. Baston's 3 year NBA redux has been quiet; he's appeared in only 89 games over those three seasons, for a total of 725 minutes. But even at age 34, he's still got some talent left. And going to the Pistons just to be waived in deference to Jonas Jerebko doesn't seem like the best use of it. Could Charlotte not ask?



Centres

- Courtney Sims: Sims is one of the better American centres not currently in the NBA, if not the best. I haven't heard about him signing anywhere for training camp, but he has done these last two years, and he really ought to. If your team signs him, he may well make your regular season roster.

- Chris Mihm: The centre crop can't be very strong when Chris Mihm is the second available free agent centre that I could think of. Mihm used to be good, but he has spent several years recovering from a severly injured ankle. He's still suffering from it, too; Mihm featured in scrub minutes of 16 games for the Lakers last season, after missing all of the 2006/07 season and playing only 23 times in 2007/08, but after being salary dumped to the Grizzlies he underwent yet another ankle surgery. Mihm is done until further notice, and seems like an inevitable candidate for a training camp spot and accompanying fluff pieces in October 2012.

- Jermareo Davidson: The Warriors waived Davidson, and later signed Mikki Moore. I have no idea why they did this. Then again, I have no idea why they do most things. Davidson is about to turn 25 and has made no obvious improvements, but he's on the fringes of the NBA nonetheless, so a return to the D-League looks inevitable.

- Brian Skinner: Brian Skinner is an overlooked player. He has the worst hands in showbusiness and all the polish of a dart player's scrotum, but he gets things done on the defensive end. Last year was no different; he averaged 4.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in only 16 minutes per game. His offense has always been poor, and always will be, but he'll block shots and rebound. Teams need this. Teams need Brian Skinner. But no team has Brian Skinner. And Brian Skinner is probably regretting opting out of a guaranteed $1.2 million right now.

- Aaron Gray: Gray looks like a certainty to re-sign with the Bulls for their guaranteed $1,000,497 qualifying offer, but he and his agent continue to search for a two year deal. Good luck with that.

- Calvin Booth: Calvin Booth played 1206 minutes in 2003/04, and has played a total of 1,341 minutes since. He sported a PER of 39.8 with the Timberwolves last year, but that's what 1 minute sample sizes can do to a man. Booth is now 33, and has not done anything since that 17 minute, 2 point, 0 rebound, 10 block outing back in January 2004.

- Jarron Collins: Jarron Collins is no worse than Jason Collins. In fact, I'd even say he was slightly better. Both suck, of course, but Jarron hasn't got the reputation that Jason has, back from when Jason was good. And that's why Jarron is looking for work. Jarron recently worked out for the Cavaliers, but they're already three deep at centre, and they're supposed to be bringing in Darryl Watkins for training camp. So there might not be room there.

- Dwayne Jones: Jones is in and out of the NBA, appearing in 6 games for the Bobcats last year. Teams always need defensive centres, and Jones will probably get picked up again at some point. But maybe not for very long.

- Jackie Butler: Remember this guy? He hasn't played for two years; not just in the NBA, but anywhere at all. After being waived by the Rockets in 2007 training camp, despite having a $2.3 million guaranteed contract, Butler has not signed anywhere in the world. His last game played was two and a half years ago. It's weird in a way, because Butler is only 24, and proved he could score the ball at the NBA level in his short time here. But he hasn't made it back. Not sure why.

- Mouhamed Sene: The Knicks have brought in a load of draft busts this summer, including Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Yaroslav Korolev. But they couldn't bring it upon themselves to keep Sene, who they waived. That's not a glowing endorsement of the man, and nor was his summer league output, where he once again demonstrated that all he can do on an NBA court is block shots.

- Robert Swift: Swift used to be a reasonable athlete, believe it or not. He was far from fast, and far from what his surname would have you believe, but he didn't move too badly. That was three years ago, though. And the three years hence have been full of injuries and rehabbing. Swift is now as mobile as a back-alley Spanish Peugeot, and where his career goes from here, I wouldn't like to guess. Not even Danny Ainge wants him right now.

- Raef LaFrentz: Nah, not really.

- Jake Voskuhl: The Raptors were so desperate for size last year that they signed Voskuhl, who promptly demonstrated he has nothing left and put up a PER of 0.4. So that didn't really work out. Voskuhl will probably now join the long line of aging 7 footers who remain unsigned while waiting for the Batphone to ring once again; these players usually slowly dribble out of our hearts and minds, and into the world of real estate, without so much as a press release. Shame.

- Mark Madsen: Mark Madsen's Twitter says he doesn't know whether to play, coach, or go into media. Considering his PER's these last two years have been 0.2 and -0.1, I'd probably rule out the playing. It's not coming back to you.

- Lorenzen Wright: Wright's PERs the last three years have almost been as Madsen's; 6.6, 2.5, 4.0. It was a slightly staggering -11.7 in his time with the Kings. I don't want to know how much lower it can get.


There are others that could make this list, including some who have had NBA workouts this summer. John Lucas III, for example, or the long awaited return of Greg Ostertag. If you really want to push it, there's luminaries like Mountain Man Steven Hill and Austin Croshere still out there. Even J.R. Rider is supposed to be lining up a Dickerson-style return for some bizarre reason. And players such as Keith Brumbaugh (Nuggets) and David Monds (Lakers) are said to have been offered training camp spots already. But considering how few available spots we're talking about here, this list seems long enough already.

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Wednesday, 16 April 2008

Qualifying Offers = Lies

If your team didn't agree to an extension with its starlet young player this past offseason - such as is the case with the Atlanta duo of Josh Childress and Josh Smith, the Chicago duo of Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, amongst others - then you've probably experienced a modicum of conversation as to whether that player will take the one year qualifying offer this offseason rather than the security of a long term deal, leaving the distinct possibility that your team will lose a key player and important asset, for jack shit in return. Talk of this possiblity happening is particularly widespread in the case of Gordon, who hasn't done much to deny it.

Let me half-arsedly set your mind at rest - it's really not that likely.

Or rather, it should be really unlikely. It might happen, but history suggests that it shouldn't. This is a list of all the rookie scale players to have accepted the fifth year qualifying offer in recent times, accompanied by a headshot for no reason other than cosmetics.



Melvin Ely

Season before free agency: 9.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 51% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 3.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 36% shooting
Season after that: 3.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 47% shooting


Melvin Ely is crap. He has had one year of non-crapness in 7 attempts. That one season was, conveniently, the final one of his rookie contract. Never justifying his draft position, this one year gave Ely the chance to make a bit of money, especially given that this was probably his only other chance at a multi-year contract. (Ely was 28 at the time, after joining the league at age 24. No one seems to remember this.) Ely took Charlotte's one year QO of $3,308,615 (which may or may not have been the only contract that they offered) in preference to taking Phoenix's multi year offer, or one from the Warriors.

Ely then played like his usual wank, and is now on a minimum salary contract with the Hornets.





Vladimir Radmanovic

Season before free agency: 11.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season after that: 6.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 42% shooting


Seattle dodged one hell of a bullet here, when Radmanovic turned down their exceedingly generous offer of a 6 year, $42 million. Why he did this, I don't know. Maybe he thought he was worth more. Or maybe he just hated Seattle. Either way, Seattle reacted, dealing him to the L.A. Clippers for Chris Wilcox, a far better player whom they managed to re-sign for half of what Radmanovic turned down.

Radmanovic did manage to somehow coerce a full MLE contract from the L.A. Lakers, a contract which totalled 5 years and $30.427 million. But, when combined with his qualifying offer of roughly $3.1 millionish, Radmanovic managed to lose almost $10 million on the deal, as well as save Rick Sund from himself.





Mickael Pietrus

Season before free agency: 11.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 49% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 7.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 44% shooting
Season after that: N/A


Pietrus has always been a very flawed player, but with the onset of the new Warriors system under Don Nelson, many of these were able to be reasonably well covered up. In the fourth season of his rookie deal, Pietrus turned in comfortably the best season of his four year career, and was courted heavily by Miami. His agent claims to have had four teams offer their full MLE to Pietrus, which makes it odd that he didn't take any of them.

In the end, Pietrus was stuck with the one year, $3,470,771 qualifying offer from Golden State. From there, the inevitable has happened - he has regressed. His stats are backwards, his weaknesses are no better than they were, and his team just missed the playoffs. Suddenly, Pietrus's package seems less attractive. (Giggidy.)





Stromile Swift

Season before free agency: 9.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 45% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season after that: 8.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 49% shooting, 0.8 blocks


Two key things to remember with Stromile's choice to sign the QO:

1) It was for $6.2 million, more than he would have gotten on the open market for the first season of any contract.
2) Memphis made it clear that they would match anything, and wouldn't entertain many sign and trade offers.
3) He really, really didn't want to be there.

(That's three things, but you get the idea.)

Financially, Stromile either breaks about even by turning down the QO and signing a four year MLE deal (which was the deal he signed with Houston after the QO year expired), or he's maybe even slightly ahead on the deal. Unlike most players, his play didn't decline under the QO, and while his numbers have suffered slightly in the last three years, his play remains pretty good.

He did not get his wish for getting out of Memphis, though, as he was traded back there after only one season in Houston. Tough break.






Aaaaaand........that's everyone this decade. I would go back further and include players such as Michael Olowokandi (a pretty resounding example of why not to turn down extensions), but it becomes too difficult to find the right numbers, so I won't. Those 4 are the only rookie scale players to have taken the qualifying offer since the year 2000.

They're 1-4, with only Swift making the right move. (This is unless Pietrus is ridiculously, insanely fortunate.)



First off, it's pretty obvious that 4 people in 4 drafts is not a huge amount of people to accept the qualifying offer. That goes without saying, given that 124 people were drafted in the first round of those 4 drafts. But I said it anyway.

Secondly, note that the one to have made a decent decision to take the qualifying offer was a second overall pick, which had a huge impact on the size of the offer in question. For reference's sake, here is a list of all the qualifying offers for those fourth year rookie scale players from the 2004 draft who did not get extensions:


Emeka Okafor: $7,082,635
Ben Gordon: $6,404,749
Shaun Livingston: $5,809,705
Josh Childress: $4,844,355
Luol Deng: $4,452,574
Andre Iguodala: $3,800,625
Andres Biedrins: $3,609,636
Robert Swift: $3,579,131
Sebastian Telfair: $3,543,834
Kirk Snyder: $3,313,598
Josh Smith: $3,167,882
J.R. Smith: $3,028,241
Dorell Wright: $2,910,104
Delonte West: $2,762,828
Tony Allen: $2,744,299
Sasha Vujacic: $2,605,559
David Harrison: $2,601,474

(Everyone else either got an extension, or have already been waived.)


Not all of these players will get a qualifying offer, because the team does not want them for that price, or indeed any price. In two cases (Swift and Livingston), the qualifying offer might actually be an advisable route, given the serious injuries from which both are struggling to recover. But only in a few cases is the qualifying offer of a significant threat to be a viable option: Emeka Okafor (who turned down a 5 year, $60 million eztension), Ben Gordon (who turned down a 5 year, $50 million extension), and maybe some of the lower players (Allen, Telfair).

Bizarrely, Okafor and Gordon have both had worse years since turning those extensions, which could mean anything. It could make them more likely to take the security while they can still get it, or it could make them more liable to have a third attempt at a successful contract year push.

The other factor here is the deep free agent class, that affects everybody in this list. Pessimists theorise that this may mean more players take the one year QO and make themselves available for the 2009 free agent market instead. Optimists might say that instead, because of the lack of money out there, those offers from their current teams suddenly look alot more lucrative and sensible. You can probably guess which of those two schools of thought I subscribe to.

Either way, it's extremely difficult to imagine those two (plus others, such as Deng and Iguodala) turning down $50+ million, twice. Especially since they haven't done anything to justify turning it down once.




HALF BAKED CONCLUSION FROM HALF-ARSED ANALYSIS:

There is not a lot of recent history on which to deduce whether taking the qualifying offer is a wise/probable decision or not. This, in itself, is indicative of the fact that it's a highly unlikely scenario. And when what little precedent there is shows the move to be a generally unwise one, that only reaffirms the idea that the likelhood of a player choosing to accept the qualifying really is nothing to fear.

Well, except for the two UConn boys.

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Saturday, 23 February 2008

Why John Freakin' Stockton Was So Freakin' Fantastic

A conversation with a friend about the awesomeness/awfulness of DeSagana Diop - and you can probably guess which side of the fence I am on regarding that - led to me to write about how great John Stockton is.

Come re-live that fun journey with me.



I try and keep an open mind on certain basketball philosophies. There are some players out there whose worth on the court is so mysterious that you really have to question their very presence on it, and yet, for whatever reason, they remain out there. A lot of them get regular rotation minutes. Some of them get regular rotation minutes on decent or good teams. And I always endeavour to understand why.

As an example, for many years, Jason Collins started on the New Jersey Nets. Not only did he start, but he would also play over twenty minutes a game (up to the tune of 31.8 in 2004/05). A quick glance at his statistics, though, makes you wonder why the hell this was. Collins has never shot over 43% in a season, which must be pretty dumbfoundingly difficult to do as a 7 footer, especially an athletic 7 footer with Jason Kidd as your point guard. (Even Michael Ruffin managed this once, and he did it armed with Bryce Drew leading the breaks. Bryce effing Drew.) Collins also has a rebounding average worse than Eddy Curry's, with a career average of a tumultuous 8.8 boards per 48 minutes. And worst of all was his PER, which last year was a can't-even-think-of-an-adjective-shit-enough-for-it 3.3. (Only this year, when it hit 3.1, did the Nets think "hmmm, maybe we could find a player with a more positive impact on the game if we try". Impressively, they did.)

I listened to arguments as to why Collins merited the court time that he got. On a good team, he would play more than half the game, despite seemingly not doing a single thing well. I watched closely and tried to figure out what it was that he was good at, and I listened to people paid to be flattering about him (i.e. Iain Eagle) try and polish this turd as shiny as it could get. I could see that Collins was a versatile defensive player, big and strong enough to defend the tough post players, but also fleet footed and agile enough to stay in front of the quicker tall forwards as they made their way to the basket. I also understood that he was Jesus Collins, Lord Of The Handoff (giggidy), and that while he couldn't grab any rebounds of his own, he cleared out the lane well enough while boxing out for guards to come in and sweep rebounds off of the floor. (See?!? Kidd owes all those rebounds to Collins! And his rebounding during tenures on previous teams were just lucky.) I also accepted the argument that maybe Nets head coach Lawrence Frank had a raging man-boner for him and just couldn't let it subside, for this argument is often applicable to NBA coaches. (See also: Chris Duhon with Jim Boylan, Lindsey Hunter with Flip Saunders, and Orien Greene with anybody to have ever coached him.)

I considered it all. And then I disregarded it all. This was because - and let's be honest here - Jason Collins was (is) a massive huge great big fat negative of a basketball player. There's no point in being a little things player if you can't do any of the big things well. And anyway, shouldn't "little things" players be able to shoot above 50% from the free throw line?

(Oh and by the way, how in the hell did Collins go from a near-80% shooter to below the Wallace Line in 4 short years? What changed? How do certain players - usually big men - manage to get so bad from the line so easily as they approach their prime years? See also: Magloire, Jamaal)

A similar situation occurs with DeSagana Diop. For whatever reason - and this has become much more prevalent since he was traded away - columnists and idiots alike would eulogise The Diop as if he were some kind of integral piece to the Mavericks championship puzzle, ignoring for a moment the fact that the Mavericks didn't actually have a championship puzzle (but that's a rant for another day). Indeed, Karate Diop is better than Jason Collins, which makes the situation slightly less deplorable. And Lasagna did give the Mavericks a skill with his rudimentary shot blocking that they otherwised lacked outside of the misshapen marvel that is Rick Dampier.

[Please feel free to look elsewhere while I burn through my own supply of extremely bad self devised DeSagana Diop nicknames. I'll get over it soon.]

But overall, DeSagana Diop was not, is not, and will probably never be a good basketball player. He used to be abhorrent, so his status as a reasonable to crappy backup centre is an improvement, yet this alone does not make him good.

This was the hard line stance that I took in our conversation, and prepared to back up my claim by using a piece of trivia that I last used in March 2006, about how Diop was on course to spend the most full seasons in the NBA of any player to average less than 2 points per game for his career (and "full seasons" is a key distinction there). However, to use this piece of trivia, I had to check that it was still true.

Sadly, it wasn't. A recent offensive explosion and the subsequent giddying heights of three points per game with the Mavericks this season have boosted Garnerchop to a career average of 2.1 points per game (or that's it was at the time of writing - if he's been on a scoring rampage since then, adjust accordingly), which undermined my premise and made me feel rather empty inside. How could I talk about Daisy Gardener being one of the worst offensive players of all time when he averages quite such a tremendous amount of points? I felt like such a twat.

Still, not one to be outdone, I rebounded (unlike Jason Collins), and offered up something new in my constant quest to win petty arguments with uninteresting trivia. While looking up Jop's career points average, I also happened to notice that his career high in points in a single game is a fantastic 10 points, achieved 4 times, 2 of which came this season. (Michael Ruffin has a career high of 14, for those keeping score at home, and you've probably noticed by now that I like to use The Muffin as my barometer when it comes to mentioning historically bad offensive players. His profile explains this in more depth.)

Those 4 explosive outings came in 409 career games. How can a man not score more than 10 points in 409 games? How is that possible? Wouldn't you do it by accident one day? At one point, wouldn't your teammates decide that enough is enough and conspire to give you enough touches to crack that elusive 11 point barrier? (And these things do happen, if your team is bad enough. See Mark Madsen's seven three point attempts in a single game in the most disgustingly shameless piece of tanking in NBA history.)

Seemingly, his teammates haven't ever thought of this. So if the Nets fall out of the playoff race this season, on purpose or otherwise, then we need to push this agenda forward. Let's get Diop to 20. In fact, 15 will do. Someone start a t-shirt campaign.



Anyway, this piece of fascinating Senegalese trivia led me on to another related one.

In 1504 career games, John Stockton never once grabbed at least 10 rebounds in a regular season game. Stockton also never had ten steals in a game either, meaning that ne never achieved a triple double, which is pretty astonishing for a man who averaged a double double over 19 seasons and 1504 games. (Note - he did once have a triple double in a playoff game, but it pisses on my chips a little to mention that, so pretend that it didn't happen.)

This discovery, which is surely a harder feat to not-achieve than Diop's points total, led me into an exploration of the man and the legend that was John Freakin' Stockton, and led me to compile this concise but considerable list of reasons quite why he was brilliant.


REASON NUMBER 1: John Freakin' Stockton played 1504 games in 19 NBA seasons, and for those doing the maths at home, this means that he only missed 22 games in his entire career. He had perfect attendance records in 17 of his 19 seasons, playing all 82 games in 16, all 50 games in the strike shortened 1998-99 season, a mere 78 in 1989-1990, and a pathetically dismal 64 games in 1997-1998. For the sake of reference, Marcus Camby has cracked the 64 game barrier only three times in 12 years, and has never played more than 72.

REASON NUMBER 2: John Freakin' Stockton played 1504 games and never grabbed 10 rebounds in a game. (The lesson here, as should be obvious - if you aggressively pursue rebounds, you'll shorten your career. So things are looking up for Jason Collins already.)

REASON NUMBER 3: John Freakin' Stockton just let it go.



Stockton played until he was 41 years old, and inevitably towards the end of his career he had a few years in which his performance slowly trailed off. But right up to and including his final season, Stockton continued to perform at a high level, starting for a Utah Jazz team that he led to a 47-35 record and the playoffs, all while averaging as-near-as-is 11 points, 8 assists and 2 steals a game. He also shot .483 that season, which is absolutely remarkable when you consider that this was 2003 that we are talking about, a season that did not favour shooting percentages.

But when faced with the decline of both his own skills and the Jazz's short term future, Stockton chose to walk away while he was still near the top of his game. This may seem like a normal or sensible thing to do, but recent precedent shows it to not be so normal after all.



So far in this 2007 season (including preseason and offseason), assorted stars of varying pedigree have either expressed an interest in returning to play one more season, or have actually done so. Allan Houston re-signed briefly with the New York Knicks before being waived in preseason in favour of Fred Jones. Chris Webber couldn't keep away and signed with the Golden State Warriors. Reggie Miller and the Boston Celtics had a brief two way flirtation before Reggie decided against un-retiring to play for only the second team of his NBA career. And Gary Payton's agent also contacted the Celtics, asking if they would return his love and affection and signing him for one more half season. (They didn't.)


Now forgive me for being a bit cynical here, as it's all I know. But why oh why might Payton want to do this?

Possible reasons:

a) He thinks he's still got it.
b) He's run out of money.
c) He wants to win an NBA title, and thinks he can get one with only the token gesture of suiting up every now and then.


If it's point A, then he's very, very wrong.

If it's point B, then he's going to have to make lifestyle changes to make the prorated veteran's minimum into an amount he can live comfortably off until his NBA pension is due.

And if it's point C, then he's pathetic.


Unfortunately, it's probably point C. And, in Gary Payton's case, it's an even more pathetic gesture than usual. For you see, Gary Payton has now achieved the almost-unachievable: he's now done this coattail riding act with three different teams. I can't think of any other instance in which that has happened, and frankly nor would I want to.

To make matters worse, Payton already has a ring from doing this, when he won with Miami back in 2005/06. So why's he hanging out desperately trying to win a ring, when he's already got one? Where's the pride in coattailing two of them, or does he feel ashamed by his first one and needs a second to restore pride? I can't see either scenario being all that profitable to his soul. And you know Gary Payton's got soul.


I don't have a problem with players that latch on with contending teams for less money than they could have gotten elsewhere, just to try and win a championship. That's not a problem with me. As any NBA "pundit" or "expert" will tell you - and I use that term very loosely - it's "all about" the rings. That is certainly the argument used to demean most players without them (or even those with them, if you're Kobe Bryant), and the alternative is to do what Reggie Miller did and stick around with a team that has no chance of winning the title just because you'll get more money that way. This is hardly a more dignified way to see out the end your career, even if it does lead to people praising you for your "loyalty", even if they misinterpret your loyalty to the chequebook as being your loyalty to a franchise.

Karl Malone, for example, played it just about right - he turned down the huge amounts of money and pleas of loyalty offered by Utah to go and spend two years for far less money trying to win a title with the L.A. Lakers. But once this bid failed, he took off. He did not go to another team elsewhere. Not again. Malone took his shot, missed, realised that his skills and health were on the way out, and threw in the towel once and for all. This was an impressive feat, especially given that he was within touching distance of one of the NBA's untouchable records - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all time points scored record.

But this isn't really about the rings. Instead, it is about the good or great players just going away and not bothering us any more, in general.



When he retired as a player, Reggie Miller went on to become a TV personality. An annoying one. So did Jon Barry. So did Magic Johnson. So did Kendall Gill, Steve Smith, Greg Anthony, Mark Jackson, Scott Williams, and a good many other players. And almost universally, they are bad at it. There must be a reason why this is. Maybe it's stubbornness and the interference of their long-term memory on their cognitive capacity. But they just are bad at it, for whatever reason. Only a few shine in this broadcasters role, and most of those shine more for their entertainment value more than their actual ability to analyse.

Some former players go into coaching, irrespective of their abilities in this area. They can't live their lives as young up-and-coming basketball players any more, so they make sure that they are around to watch those of others develop. (It's either coaching, or a cameo in a Spike Lee movie.) Almost universally they are bad at this, too. For the most part, the better the player, the worse the coach or general manager they make. (There are some exceptions, such as Joe Dumars. But for every Joe Dumars, there's three or four Kevin McHale's.)

Worse still, some of the game's true all time greats hang around awkwardly at events such as All Star weekend, demonstrating their complete lack of touch with the modern NBA game, and occasionally making matters even worse by taking the court and proving that they aren't in any way the player that they used to be. It's deflating to watch, and should be made illegal. (There's potential for a second t-shirt campaign here.)



But John Stockton doesn't do any of this.

John Stockton just played until he shouldn't, and then took off. He didn't swan out, interfere with things that weren't his business to interfere with, or humiliate himself at All-Star weekends. He followed his career's path until he reached the end, and then he left.

And that's why he'll always be John Freakin' Stockton.

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