Where Are They Now, 2010; Part 20

Chris Ellis, featured in the last update, has moved from the Ukraine to Romania. Here's a couple of updates on people already covered;

1) Keon Clark has continued his weekly reviews in front of a drug court....or rather, he hasn't. At his January 27th hearing, Clark turned up but received a "bad report", and while I don't know what that entails, I do know that it meant serving two weeks in PSB (which I believe to mean "prison," as in "public safety building.") Clark then didn't turn up to his February 3rd hearing, and nor did he turn up to prison. I don't know how a man doesn't turn up to prison, but Keon didn't. He is now MIA and an arrest warrant has been issued. (He also managed to get done for both speeding and driving with a suspended license, AGAIN, since the last update was issued. STOP DRIVING, KEON.)

2) The reason Vin Baker is not playing is that he is now an assistant coach at Texas Southern University. So is Nick Van Exel. Texas Southern are playing live on British TV next week. We've come a long way.

(There are about 4 times more NCAA games than NBA games shown over here now, presumably because they're cheaper. It's good, though. And it would be better if the Lakers weren't in 80% of the NBA games shown. That figure is only slightly exaggerated.)


- Chinemelu Elonu

Lakers draft pick Elonu is in Spain, playing for Zaragoza. He is averaging 6.5 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in only 19 minutes per game, shooting 60% from the field. That's the good news.

But why's he only playing 19 minutes per game? It's not because there's a more talented player in front of him, for Zaragoza are in the Spanish second division. Instead, it's because he's fouling 3.6 times per game, in a league where only 5 fouls are allowed in 40 minute games. Elonu has fouled out 6 times in 21 games, and has played more more than 27 minutes in any game (which, not coincidentally, is also the only game he had less than 3 fouls in). Elonu declared for the draft after his junior season, despite still not being ready; given that he turns 23 in 6 weeks and can't play half of Spanish second division games, he's got a ways to go yet.



- Melvin Ely

Ely joined the Kings for training camp, but did not make the team. Despite a shortage of size, the Kings felt that the rarely active Sean May, Kenny Thomas' expiring contract and the 5'11 Jon Brockman would suffice as backup big man options, and felt they didn't need Ely. Ely then went to China for some tryouts, at least one of which was with the Beijing Ducks. Ely may even have played a game with the team, and if he did, he totalled 14 points and 9 rebounds. It's almost impossible to tell, however, because Chinese information (in English) is almost impossible to come across, and running Chinese websites through Google Translate tends to translate the player names as well, which isn't helping anybody.

What we know for sure is this; Beijing started the year with Cedric Bozeman and James Mays as imports. Bozeman is still there and beasting, but Mays has left after posting roughly 30/11 for a couple of months. Mays was replaced by former Heat big man Ernest Brown, but an anonymous import played in a game a couple of weeks before Mays' departure. Was that man Ernest Brown, or was that man Melvin Ely, since Melvin was on trial there at the time? I do not know. And that's all the Melvin Ely news I have for you.

Here's one thing we do know for sure about the Beijing Ducks, though; 7'9 Sun Ming Ming is playing for them. He has 12 points, 18 rebounds, 2 blocks and 12 fouls in 83 minutes on the season. And he's still living rpoof that you can be too big for basketball.

Melvin Ely fact: Melvin Ely has more rings than Karl Malone.




- Andre Emmett

Emmett is also in China, but there's no ambivalence in his season so far. Playing for Shandong, he is leading the league with a 32.6 points per game average, alongside 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.7 steals. Emmett scored 151 points in his first three games, and never looked back, not even after a new year slump that saw him average a terrible 23ppg in five early January games.

In the last two years, Emmett has averaged 33ppg in China, 24ppg in France, 26ppg in Venezuela and 24ppg in Belgium. He's carefully avoided Italy and Spain, and didn't work out in his couple of NBA seasons, but he's putting up the numbers. And presumably, he's stacking paper.



- Carl English

English, who is Canadian, is spending his third season in Spain. In the summer he moved from Gran Canaria to Caja Laboral Vitoria, where he had the unenviable task of trying to replace Igor Rakocevic. After a bad start, English has perked up a bit, but he has struggled a bit against the elite competition. English averages 11.6 points and 3.6 rebounds per game in ACB competition, alongside 8.7 points and 2.4 rebounds per game in the Euroleague, playing 23mpg in each. He is also shooting a combined 44% from three point range between the two. However, English has 8 single figure performances in 12 Euroleague games, compared to just 6 in 21 ACB games. The ACB is good, but the Euroleague is better, and while Carl English's three point shot is working well for him in both competitions, he gets more one dimensional the further up the ladder you go.



- Zoran Erceg

Olympiakos retooled a large proportion of their roster this offseason, as they are wont to do, and this meant they no longer had room for Zoran Erceg. It tok a while, and included an abortive move to Maroussi (when the two teams agreed to terms before Erceg refused to go), but they eventually found a place to loan him to. Erceg is with Panionios and is averaging 17.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, leading the league in scoring and ranking 6th in rebounds.

When Olympiakos played Panathinaikos back in December, Zoran totalled 16 points in Panionios' 96-94 overtime victory, one of Olympiakos's only two Greek league defeats this season. (The other was to Maroussi, yesterday.) Given that the Greek league is a complete two horse race between Olympiakos and Panathinaikos - which is why their matchups mean so much - that loss was extremely painful. And so, needless to say, Zoran Erceg had the last laugh.



- Semih Erden

Celtics draft pick Erden is into his fifth season with Fenerbahce, and he's rebounding better this year. He's averaging 6.6 points and 5.1 rebounds in 19 minutes per game in the Euroleague, alongside 21/9.4/6.2 in the Turkish league. Since I have no trivia about Semih Erden, interesting or otherwise, let's move on to Ebi Ere.



- Ebi Ere

Ere is a Tulsa native and former Oklahoma graduate who has had a good professional career after a bad senior season. He's a good all around scorer who lacks that little something to be an NBA player, and by "that little something" I mean "above average size, above average athleticism, and/or above average jumpshot." One of the three would help, a combination even moreso, but it's not to be. This doesn't stop Ere from beasting all around the world, though, and after beasting in Australia this last two seasons (as well as in Puerto Rico last summer), Ere now finds himself in Italy. Playing for Pepsi JuveCaserta, who currently rank third in the league, Ere averages 15.9 points (6th in SerieA), 4.5 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game.



- Evan Eschmeyer

Eschmeyer retired almost five and a half years ago due to chronic knee problems, and last played almost seven years ago. He briefly went back to Northwestern to complete a law/business double degree, founded an online recruiting agency, and now works in the renewable energy business. Don't really understand his job, though.



- Daniel Ewing

Ewing - who played in 127 NBA games, only 26 less than Eschmeyer, despite having a career three years shorter - is signed with Prokom Gdynia in Poland. Gydnia are a Euroleague team, and Ewing is averaging 11.8 points and 2.8 assists per game in that competition, alongside 10.0/4.6 in the Polish league. His team mates include Qyntel Woods, Junior Harrington, Ratko Varda, Jan Jagla and David Logan, so we'll revisit Gydnia a few more times yet.




- Patrick Ewing Jr

Patrick Ewing Jr has not played in a game since last March due to injury. Last year he averaged 16.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.4 steals per game for the Reno Bighorns, but was waived with an MCL "sprain" that also kept him out of playing in the Knicks' summer league campaign. One year on, and that injury is keeping him out of action. I'm guessing it was a tear instead of a sprain.



- Christian Eyenga

Cavaliers draft pick Eyenga has moved from DKV Joventut's feeder team in the Spanish third division, all the way to the giddying heights of the first team. His first taste of ACB basketball has been fairly successful; in 11.4 minutes of 16 games, Eyenga is averaging 3.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.8 blocks and 0.6 steals per game, shooting 54% from the field and 40$% from three point range. For a very raw 20 year old in a league where kids generally don't play much, that's pretty good.

Still waiting for his name to appear on the draft board, though.



Finally....

- Olu Famutimi

For a few years there, Nigerian-Canadian cut and shut job Famutimi was on the cusp of the NBA. He signed back to back training camp contracts, with the Sixers in 2005 and the Spurs in 2006, and was once touted as being the first player to go straight from a Canadian high school to the first round of the NBA draft. (This didn't happen, though. Obviously.) Now well into a European career, Famutimi is signed in Turkey and averaging 16.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game for Oyak Renault Bursa. That's easily the best offensive season of his career, and shooting 41% from three point range is a large part of that (and a big improvement from a man who went 6-29 from there in 92 D-League games.)

Qualifying Offers = Lies

If your team didn't agree to an extension with its starlet young player this past offseason - such as is the case with the Atlanta duo of Josh Childress and Josh Smith, the Chicago duo of Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, amongst others - then you've probably experienced a modicum of conversation as to whether that player will take the one year qualifying offer this offseason rather than the security of a long term deal, leaving the distinct possibility that your team will lose a key player and important asset, for jack shit in return. Talk of this possiblity happening is particularly widespread in the case of Gordon, who hasn't done much to deny it.

Let me half-arsedly set your mind at rest - it's really not that likely.

Or rather, it should be really unlikely. It might happen, but history suggests that it shouldn't. This is a list of all the rookie scale players to have accepted the fifth year qualifying offer in recent times, accompanied by a headshot for no reason other than cosmetics.



Melvin Ely

Season before free agency: 9.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 51% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 3.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 36% shooting
Season after that: 3.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 47% shooting


Melvin Ely is crap. He has had one year of non-crapness in 7 attempts. That one season was, conveniently, the final one of his rookie contract. Never justifying his draft position, this one year gave Ely the chance to make a bit of money, especially given that this was probably his only other chance at a multi-year contract. (Ely was 28 at the time, after joining the league at age 24. No one seems to remember this.) Ely took Charlotte's one year QO of $3,308,615 (which may or may not have been the only contract that they offered) in preference to taking Phoenix's multi year offer, or one from the Warriors.

Ely then played like his usual wank, and is now on a minimum salary contract with the Hornets.





Vladimir Radmanovic

Season before free agency: 11.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 41% shooting
Season after that: 6.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 42% shooting


Seattle dodged one hell of a bullet here, when Radmanovic turned down their exceedingly generous offer of a 6 year, $42 million. Why he did this, I don't know. Maybe he thought he was worth more. Or maybe he just hated Seattle. Either way, Seattle reacted, dealing him to the L.A. Clippers for Chris Wilcox, a far better player whom they managed to re-sign for half of what Radmanovic turned down.

Radmanovic did manage to somehow coerce a full MLE contract from the L.A. Lakers, a contract which totalled 5 years and $30.427 million. But, when combined with his qualifying offer of roughly $3.1 millionish, Radmanovic managed to lose almost $10 million on the deal, as well as save Rick Sund from himself.





Mickael Pietrus

Season before free agency: 11.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 49% shooting
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 7.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 44% shooting
Season after that: N/A


Pietrus has always been a very flawed player, but with the onset of the new Warriors system under Don Nelson, many of these were able to be reasonably well covered up. In the fourth season of his rookie deal, Pietrus turned in comfortably the best season of his four year career, and was courted heavily by Miami. His agent claims to have had four teams offer their full MLE to Pietrus, which makes it odd that he didn't take any of them.

In the end, Pietrus was stuck with the one year, $3,470,771 qualifying offer from Golden State. From there, the inevitable has happened - he has regressed. His stats are backwards, his weaknesses are no better than they were, and his team just missed the playoffs. Suddenly, Pietrus's package seems less attractive. (Giggidy.)





Stromile Swift

Season before free agency: 9.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season spent on Qualifying Offer: 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 45% shooting, 1.5 blocks
Season after that: 8.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 49% shooting, 0.8 blocks


Two key things to remember with Stromile's choice to sign the QO:

1) It was for $6.2 million, more than he would have gotten on the open market for the first season of any contract.
2) Memphis made it clear that they would match anything, and wouldn't entertain many sign and trade offers.
3) He really, really didn't want to be there.

(That's three things, but you get the idea.)

Financially, Stromile either breaks about even by turning down the QO and signing a four year MLE deal (which was the deal he signed with Houston after the QO year expired), or he's maybe even slightly ahead on the deal. Unlike most players, his play didn't decline under the QO, and while his numbers have suffered slightly in the last three years, his play remains pretty good.

He did not get his wish for getting out of Memphis, though, as he was traded back there after only one season in Houston. Tough break.






Aaaaaand........that's everyone this decade. I would go back further and include players such as Michael Olowokandi (a pretty resounding example of why not to turn down extensions), but it becomes too difficult to find the right numbers, so I won't. Those 4 are the only rookie scale players to have taken the qualifying offer since the year 2000.

They're 1-4, with only Swift making the right move. (This is unless Pietrus is ridiculously, insanely fortunate.)



First off, it's pretty obvious that 4 people in 4 drafts is not a huge amount of people to accept the qualifying offer. That goes without saying, given that 124 people were drafted in the first round of those 4 drafts. But I said it anyway.

Secondly, note that the one to have made a decent decision to take the qualifying offer was a second overall pick, which had a huge impact on the size of the offer in question. For reference's sake, here is a list of all the qualifying offers for those fourth year rookie scale players from the 2004 draft who did not get extensions:


Emeka Okafor: $7,082,635
Ben Gordon: $6,404,749
Shaun Livingston: $5,809,705
Josh Childress: $4,844,355
Luol Deng: $4,452,574
Andre Iguodala: $3,800,625
Andres Biedrins: $3,609,636
Robert Swift: $3,579,131
Sebastian Telfair: $3,543,834
Kirk Snyder: $3,313,598
Josh Smith: $3,167,882
J.R. Smith: $3,028,241
Dorell Wright: $2,910,104
Delonte West: $2,762,828
Tony Allen: $2,744,299
Sasha Vujacic: $2,605,559
David Harrison: $2,601,474

(Everyone else either got an extension, or have already been waived.)


Not all of these players will get a qualifying offer, because the team does not want them for that price, or indeed any price. In two cases (Swift and Livingston), the qualifying offer might actually be an advisable route, given the serious injuries from which both are struggling to recover. But only in a few cases is the qualifying offer of a significant threat to be a viable option: Emeka Okafor (who turned down a 5 year, $60 million eztension), Ben Gordon (who turned down a 5 year, $50 million extension), and maybe some of the lower players (Allen, Telfair).

Bizarrely, Okafor and Gordon have both had worse years since turning those extensions, which could mean anything. It could make them more likely to take the security while they can still get it, or it could make them more liable to have a third attempt at a successful contract year push.

The other factor here is the deep free agent class, that affects everybody in this list. Pessimists theorise that this may mean more players take the one year QO and make themselves available for the 2009 free agent market instead. Optimists might say that instead, because of the lack of money out there, those offers from their current teams suddenly look alot more lucrative and sensible. You can probably guess which of those two schools of thought I subscribe to.

Either way, it's extremely difficult to imagine those two (plus others, such as Deng and Iguodala) turning down $50+ million, twice. Especially since they haven't done anything to justify turning it down once.




HALF BAKED CONCLUSION FROM HALF-ARSED ANALYSIS:

There is not a lot of recent history on which to deduce whether taking the qualifying offer is a wise/probable decision or not. This, in itself, is indicative of the fact that it's a highly unlikely scenario. And when what little precedent there is shows the move to be a generally unwise one, that only reaffirms the idea that the likelhood of a player choosing to accept the qualifying really is nothing to fear.

Well, except for the two UConn boys.

30 teams in 88 or so days: New Orleans

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Morris Peterson (4 years, $22.4 million)
Melvin Ely (two year minimum)
David Wesley (acquired from Cleveland, to be waived)
Ryan Bowen (one year minimum)
Trey Johnson (two year minimum)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Julian Wright (13th overall)
Second round: Adam Haluska (43rd overall)



Players retained:

Jannero Pargo (re-signed, two years, $3,806,400)



Players departed:

Brandon Bass (signed with Dallas)
Devin Brown (signed with Cleveland)
Marc Jackson (signed in Greece)
Linton Johnson (signed in Spain)
Desmond Mason (signed with Milwaukee)
Cedric Simmons (traded to Cleveland)



Bobbins:

It's hard to see quite what New Orleans planned to do going into this offseason. If their intention was to surround Chris Paul with shooters, as it probably was and definitely should have been, then it's a job well done. In retaining Jannero Pargo while bringing in Morris Peterson and Adam Haluska to replace Devin Brown and Desmond Mason, the Hornets outside shooting takes another step forward. And when combined with the returning Rasual Butler and Bobby Jackson, as well as the return from injury of Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets outside shooting will be a strength this upcoming season. The backcourt depth in general is pretty strong.

The frontcourt depth, however, is another matter.

New Orleans seems content to roll with only four recognised big men, two of whom are Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely. Ely's pretty bad despite one season of decency (and a contract season at that. How coincidental), whereas Armstrong is coming off of an incredibly raw rookie year. This seems to me as though it should be more of a pressing concern to Hornets management, given that the two players they're backing up (Tyson Chandler and David West) haven't exactly been the poster boys for healthy living at any point in their NBA careers.

Should injuries affect their frontcourt (and it will, because they're the Hornets), New Orleans is left with the salivating prospect of having to play one of their six small forwards in a small ball lineup. This might not be too bad if Julian Wright proves himself able to defend most power forwards in this league, but if he can't, Stojakovic may wind up having to do it. Which would be.....um....carnage.

Why you would bring in Morris Peterson for such an amount of money when you already had Rasual Butler, all the while letting Devin Brown walk for £1.2 million and letting Linton Johnson fall out of the NBA, seems a bit dumbfouding. Peterson is better than all of those players, but it seems silly to spend your mid level exception on a medium upgrade from Peterson to Butler of what is basically the same player. Especially when you could clearly use a big man that doesn't suck, just drafted a small forward, and also have the hugely overpaid former All Star Peja Stojakovic for the role.

And why they then effectively sell their 5th big man who they drafted not 18 months before (Cedric Simmons), trading him for an unguaranteed contract and nothing else, was flat out weird. There must be something seriously wrong with Cedric. Or Jeff Bower.

Nonetheless, despite my compulsory criticism, the Hornets did not lose a lot in these upgrades. Players such as Marc Jackson, Johnson and Brown made for some nice depth, but they weren't rotation players in an ideal world anyway. And the Hornets rotation as it stands is quite good. It's improved upon where it was, and this team would have been a playoff team last year with some better health.

But there's still flaws here. The injuries are going to happen again, even if it's to a lesser degree. You can't assemble and injury prone roster and then complain that injuries affect your season. You should know that in advance. The Hornets had it particularly rough last year with only Jannero Pargo playing more than 75 games, and he was supposed to be a third stringer. But numerous injuries is a situation that is almost certainly going to happen again. That's what happens when you spend big money on Bobby Jackson, Stojakovic and David West.

Also, there's quite a bit of irony to be found in wanting to assemble a roster of shooters and then signing Ryan Bowen. But never mind.



Next year:

So much - perhaps too much - of the season relies on the starting frontcourt trio of Stojakovic, West and Chandler. While Chris Paul is the star player around whom the team is rightly built around, he needs plenty of help to do so. Assembling a team of shooters around Paul helps, and the starting frontcourt pairing of Chandler and West is young and somewhat dynamic. But those two are also the only plus rebounders on the team, and only Chandler and Armstrong provide much interior defense. To rely on such fragile players and minimal depth is open to question, and so that's what I'm doing.

Having spent huge amounts of money on this trio last year, the Hornets didn't get too great of a return. Chandler enjoyed a wonderful bounceback season, but West and Stojakovic played only 65 games combined, leaving the Hornets short of offense for much of the season. That won't cut it if the Hornets are to crack .500 and make the playoffs, something which they have the talent to do.

Chandler, especially, needs to have an epic (or at least comparable) season. His career to date has gone:

1st year - Poor
2nd year - Decent
3rd year - Poor (injury permitting)
4th year - Really good
5th year - Utter shite
6th year - Really good

Last year he emerged as a an elite rebounder, and rediscovered some of his lost offensive skill. His offensive skill always peaked at mediocre, based largely around the unattractive but effective flail towards the rim, and an extremely mediocre jump/free throw shot. After taking the 2005 offseason off, though, Chandler lost these skills, and his subsequent confidence in his abilities. They look to be on the way back, which bodes well for the Hornets, but he needs to end this cycle for the Hornets to succeed this year.

And they can do that. They're not in the West's elite, and they're not all that young any more (West is now 27, and their wing players are all veterans). Nonetheless, it's a playoff calibre team, which isn't finished, but one which has an identity and is fairly well rounded.

They just need to stay somewhat healthy.