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Friday, 18 January 2008

Game of the week 4: Bulls vs Magic

Eight weeks have passed since the last game-of-the-week which makes the title of the series something of an outright lie. Yeah. Sorry about that. I was busy and ill and stuff.

Still, to get us back into the series, I'm choosing to depict a game featuring the greatest basketball team in the world (as long as you don't include wins and losses in your criteria for what makes a team good), the insatiable Chicago Bulls, as they take on the Orlando Magic.

For those who haven't been following at home, the Chicago Bulls are less than mediocre this year. And for those of us who support them, it's a rather painful kick in the arse to witness. This team last year won 49 games and made the second round of the playoffs. They weren't half bed. They improved upon this on paper as they upgraded their personel, kept together their core, and assumed incremental improvement from all the young holders. Things were supposed to be beautiful.

They aren't.

For whatever reason, the Bulls suck. A premier defensive unit with mediocre but sufficient offense has suddenly turned into a mediocre defensive unit with the worst offense in the NBA. The "slow start" excuse played for a while, as the Bulls do have a recent history of slow starts. But for whatever reason, this season, they're still bad at the near half way point of the season.

The Magic, meanwhile, tore out to an epic start, and have now levelled off a bit. Just like last year. Except hopefully for them, unlike last year, they won't be distinctly middle of the road come the end of the season. But with future MVP Dwight Howard around, it seems unlikely.

After spending roughly an hour finding a way to watch the game online (obviously via totally legal methods), I gave up, and listened to the audio feed instead. I lay in bed to do this, because I'm lazy like that. It was there that I discovered that the game was being broadcast on a tape delay via English TV channel Five, whose NBA coverage has been nitpicked to death by me in the past (namely, here. So we'll see how they handle this.


- If you didn't know this already, Luol Deng has an English passport. Ben Gordon also will do in the foreseeable future. This makes Five rather intrested in the Bulls progress, and broadcast all Bulls games with simmering dollops of bias. And that's to be commended. Tonight, however, they've gone one step further, and added an in-studio guest - Luol Deng's brother Ajou Deng. Ajou Deng is 29, taller, considerably inferior, with exactly the same voice as Luol. He also looks sorta the same, except with the eyes of poker player Phil Ivey, and with a gap tooth that would have been considered sexy several centuries ago. Ajou speaks slowly, deeply and consistently, with no hint of punctuation or syllable inflection, and with absolutely nothing to say except to respond to the inane questions fired by the in-studio pairing of Mark Webster (not the world darts champion) and Andre Alleyne about how brilliant Luol is. This is going to work perfectly, I can see it.

- Ajou regales us with a story about how he won an MVP trophy during a basketball tournament he played in, the prize for which was a 27 inch television, which he then had to take home on the bus that he arrived on. Welcome to the world of British basketball. Additionally, Britain's first ever entry to the ULEB Cup (the second tier European club competition), the Guildford Heat, are 0-9 in the competition so far, with numerous enormous losses, including a recent 40 point loss to Joventut. Ajou Deng plays for the Heat. So you can see where this is going.

- None of the three studio presenters can tie a tie. Alleyne hasn't bothered, Deng shouldn't have done, and Webster offers up a remarkable ensemble for the evening. Unshaven, somewhat gaunt looking, with an abortive attempt on his very stripey tie and a seriously ill-fitting V-neck sweater, Webster looks as though he has just been pulled out of a crackhouse and thrust into whatever clothes they could find only minutes before the show began. Strangely, though, he's also wearing a purple wristband. Answers on a postcard.

- In back to back sentences, Webster describes the Bulls season so far as "patchy", and then says "let's hope that [another good run to close out the season] happens again!". Like I said, it's all swarmed in bias. And I'm totally cool with that.

- In pre-game build up, Alleyne mentions how Ben Wallace has "picked himself up", in reference to his recent play. Then a graphic shows up showing how the Bulls are the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA this season at 103 points per game, which Alleyne elaborates upon weirdly. Alleyne then closes his stanza with the immortal sentence "Chris Duhon will start in the, um, erm, excuse me, point guard spot vacated by Kendrick Hinrich." So not only are we biased as all hell, but we can't analyse for shit. Fantastic.

- Mark Webster then calls Joakim Noah "Wakeem", and suddenly I feel vindicated about being unable to kick the habit myself. Then again, as we discussed earlier, Webster is a crack addict, so......

(Legal disclaimer - Mark Webster is not a crack addict. Neither of the famous Mark Webster's are.)

The team then proceed to have a conversation about Wakeem, his skills, value to the team, and about his recent suspension for backchat. It's actually an intelligent discussion full of accurate observations, perspective and common sense. While it was taking place, the cameraman went for a wander, and panned to two Luol Deng jerseys sitting on a desk somewhere. Don't know why this happened.

- Finally, before the tip-off, Alleyne and Ajou agree that the Bulls are going to need a big defensive game from Ben Wallace. For those who haven't noticed, here is Ben Wallace's defensive PER this season. Feisty.

- Kendrick Hinrich is sitting out tonight due to a combination of back spasms and epic shitness, so Thabo "The Show" Sefolosha starts in his place. This means that the Bulls have now replaced the third worst jumpshooting guard in basketball (Hinrich) with the worst (Thabo), both of whom are starting alongside the second worst (Duhon). This on a team that also starts the 33% shooting centre Ben Wallace. This is really going to space the floor, I reckon.

- After Ben Wallace wins the opening tip, which he seems to do every night as fatigue ha snot yet set in, Jumpin' Joe Smith attempts the Bulls first 3 shots, and misses them. And you said we didn't have a post scorer!

- Ben Wallace exhibits Shaq-like pick and roll defense early, successfully managing to guard neither Orlando player. But in his defense, if you think paying Ben Wallace $15 million a year for only one dimesion (and you're wrong, for it's actually zero dimensions), then give Rashard Lewis three years and you'll have a black Pat Garrity for $20 million a year. Yes, I'm still harping on about this.

- Chris Duhon misses a wide open three point shot, and Thabo Sefolosha turns down an open 21 footer in favour of dribbling into screeners for 5 seconds. Still, only four minutes until Gordon comes in.

- After Ben Wallace picks up his second foul, Aaron Gray comes in for him. Colour commentator Matt Guokas mentions how this makes Dwight Howard's eyes "light up". Yeah, well, wait until Dwight sees what a powerhouse he has to defend. Aaron Gray is the shit.

- Sefolosha hits a jumper. Wow. Matt Guokas mentions about how that type of player - the thought of as insignificant type - are the type of player that typically burns the Magic. Well, we'll see about that.

- I feel I should mention at this moment that I'm rasping for a piss, and yet the show has had no advert breaks yet. Things are starting to get uncomfortable.

- Coming back from a timeout, the game feed cuts back in with the camera focused on Wakeem Noah on the bench. This causes Webster to lose his professionalism, as the soundman hangs him out to dry by leaving hsi microphone on for five seconds longer than Webster thought he had. After handing back to the American audio feed, Webster then booed Noah loudly, thinking that he was off air. That was fun.

- Joe Smith opens the game 1 for 5 from the free throw line, which is extremely unlike him. He scowls angrily at the basket after all the misses, which is extremely unusual for Smith. This Bulls team is personified by awful body language, and only the constant chirpiness offered by Aaron Gray, Smith and Noah shows any kind of interest in the players being there. And if we lose Joe to a bad temper, then the franchise has real problems.

- Ajou Deng's awkwardness to the camera is topped only by Luol's. If you've ever seen Luol Deng talk toa camera, you'll notice that he slows up his speech for some reason. And quite frankly, it makes him sound like a spanner. I thought I'd mention this.

- Brian Cook is fat and awkward.

- Stan Van Gundy is fat and awkward.

- The first quarter ends at 27-24 to Orlando. The TV show is now 50 minutes in, and not even the end of the quarter brings me the relief of an advert break. I'm really scratching for a slash here, but I can't seem to stop watching, in case I miss something I can roll my eyes about. Right on cue, Alleyne calls Thabo by the unusual name of "Seffer-LAR-shar". Obviously I can;t miss things like this.

- During the first quarter break, we are treated to a montage of every shot Luol Deng took and/or made. This could get tiresome, even for those of us out there who love Luol Deng dearly and would even be willing to overlook it if he bricked our parents to death. Meanwhile, Ajou Deng's head slowly disappears into his shoulders.

- Alleyne again references the stat they invented which claims that the Bulls are 6th in the NBA in points per game. So the analyst can't analyse, the in-studio guest can't entertain, and Mark Webster is high as a kite (allegedly). Brilliant.

(But, you know? It's still very entertaining for some reason. At least they're enthused. And that counts for a lot. Well, OK, Ajou Deng isn't enthused.)

- For three straight possessions to open the second quarter, Orlando takes and makes straight away 28 footers. Chicago responds by bringing the ball up unneessarily slowly, taking 10 seconds to even get to the play calling stage. The Bulls offense survived all its pitfalls last year by pushing the ball enough to be the 6th fastest offense in the entire NBA, which in a league featuring teams such as Phoenix and Golden State is no mean feat. Yet this year, aided by the slowness of Duhon and Hinrich, they've decided not to bother with that, unless their idea of pushing the ball involves in-rhythm 20 footers with no one in rebounding position. That, they do plenty of.

- Still no ad break. I can feel my bladder rupture.

- After Ben Wallace does his customary 10 dollar move with a 10 cent finish in the low post, Matt Guokas claims that "you might normally go three or four games without seeing Ben Wallace attempt a post move". Oh God, how I wish that was the case.

- As Joe Smith shoots a free throw, a girl with a mop runs behind the rebounders to back underneath the basket Joe is shooting at. Any closer, and she would have run down the paint itself. Strange times. Joe makes it anyway but still doesn't look happy.

- Ben Gordon is in at the point guard spot for Chicago. Fantastic! That'll facilitate the ball movement and stop the turnovers.

- After the outside shooting barrage, Chicago is now down 14. They look deflated already, although I'm not sure they ever looked inflated. They also strangely can't seem to rebound with Ben Wallace in the game. Surely not? It's not like Ben's man routinely goes off for big rebounding nights or anything. An Orlando timeout comes, but no advert break comes with it. Webster says "Wakeem" again.

- Thabo Sefolosha is given a whole calendar week to shoot a three point shot from the wing. He obliges, and makes it. He has now hit three jumpers in one game. One of them nearly hit a flying pig.

- If you are wondering at home, why do the Bulls continue to play Wallace when he is substandard at every facet of the game, and players such as Noah and Tyrus Thomas aren't getting nearly enough playing time, then look no further. They know of the illogical nature of what they are doing, and yet they deliberately do it. The reasoning is thus: if they flog this dead horse enough so that they can get his rebounding average above or near 10 a game, along with his 2 assists, steals and blocks a game, then someone might - just might - trade for the bastard if the Bulls set the bar low enough. And if you think that's silly, then bear in mind that John Paxson's record when it comes to trading players when their value is at their lowest ebb is rather unspectacular.

- Luol Deng shoots a technical foul shot, which must be a first. Meet the Chicago Bulls guards, everybody. For a "jumpshooting team", we sure as shit can't shoot. Deng misses it.

- Thabo penetrates the lane and drops the ball off to Wallace, who finishes with a dunk over that same flying pig. This is noteworthy for two reasons:

1) Thabo isn't awful tonight.
2) Ben Wallace dunked the ball.

Both rare but special things.

- Amazingly, the Bulls have cut it back to a two point game, as Orlando misses a few shots. With their final possession of the half, Chicago runs their insatiable Duhon/Wallace pick and roll. Amazingly, it doesn't work. A turnover and a three pointer later, the Bulls are down 5 at the half.

- The half time show brings us focus on, surprise surprise, Luol Deng. They have a feature in which he talks about a series of slide related to things in his life. These include Big Ben (the clock, not Wallace), his passport photo, Charlie Villanueva, Dikembe Mutombo, a Phoenix Suns cap and Manute Bol, whose legs dumbfound me with their length. This feature was not interesting, but I watched it all in case it was. In doing this, I had to once again sacrifice going for a piss. That's dedication, folks.

- Ajou Deng gets to talk a lot at half time, and cements his status as the least enticing TV personality ever. He does mention at one point, though, that he and Luol have another basketball playing brohter called Deng Deng. Maybe I misheard his dulcit tones, but I swear he said that. Meanwhile, Luol waxes lyrical about Wakeem, the team cancer. (Sarcasm).

- Orlando blows the game open again to start the second half, despite Jameer Nelson running two fast breaks so badly that he ought to be made an honorary Chicago Bull. Both times, he dribbled into the path of his wing man, and had to pull the ball back out. Still, Orlando hits their shots, and Chicago can't get theirs off.

- It's depressing to watch how little Ben Wallace gives a shit.

- Chicago has two point sint he first 4 minutes of the third quarter, including one beautfiful possession that featured a two man game between Wallace and Duhon, in which Wallace caught the ball in the low post with 15 seconds on the clock, and spun around looking for help for every last one of them. Good times.

Orlando trots down, and hits their open outside shots from a penetrate-and-kick game.

The game is blown open to a 73-54 affair from a 57-52 game at half time.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, that'll do it. I can't be bothered with the rest.





Ladies and gentleman, meet your Chicago Bulls. They're exactly the same outfit as last year, except they're more talented, and massively inferior.

Successful Chicago Bulls teams of the Scott Skiles era were personified by energy and defense. Both have vanished from the current Bulls. No one takes charges. Players don't fight for the rebound like they once did. Their simple playbook used to be reasonably effective when it was executed with a certain sharpness and crispness. But this crispness has disappeared. Players flit about, and the Bulls haven't the athletic talent to get away with that.

The problem does not necessarily lie with the Bulls player personel. They have a flawed roster, with not enough pure shotmaking talent and poor size. But they've always had this, and yet have proven that they can be successful anyway. The probkem stems from what these previously successful players have started not doing that has gotten them away from what they do best.

Instead of incremental improvements from the core, everyone except Tyrus Thomas has gone backwards. And even he hasn't done that much to get better except for adding a reasonable jumpshot. Ben Gordon's doing much better as of late after being benched, but his mind wasn't in it to begin the season, and he reverted to his stand-on-the-wing self of his first two seasons. Luol Deng, affected by nagging injuries, still fatigues too easily and goes for long stretches without touching the ball on offense. Chris Duhon is back to the standard of his sophomore season after a bad campaign last season, but he suffers from just not being that good. Ben Wallace's demise has gone from slow to debilitating. Andres Nocioni is chucking more than ever before, including even his rookie season, and his defense continues to get worse as he leaves several dozen open shooters a game. And Kirk Hinrich's offseason decision to bulk up seems to have resulted in a jarring loss of foot speed and the absence of any consistency in his jumpshot.

The Bulls guards never could finish around the rim. Their big men never could consistently do so either. The team was never tall, and never very athletic. But they used to win anyway. The defense would carry them. Even when they went through massive offensive droughts, they'd put you into one too, by taking many charges, deflecting the ball at all times, and just generally pissing you off. But the charge taking has gone. The deflections are way down. And the offense is worse, despite the too-massive-to-explain difference in offensive talent between the respective trios of Joe Smith, Aaron Gray and Joakim Noah over P.J. Brown, Michael Sweetney and Malik Allen.

So, what's wrong with the Bulls? Something. I don't know what to suggest.

But scapegoating the coach didn't work.

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Sunday, 6 January 2008

With apologies to Dwight Howard

In my season preview of the Orlando Magic, written back in October and located here, I wrote something that looks a bit stupid in hindsight. At this point, I'd quite like to try and weasel my way out most of it.

The following are some quotes that I stand by:

It would be very difficult if not impossible to provide a commentary on the Rashard Lewis sign-and-trade while also managing to take an interesting or unique viewpoint, or to say anything that hasn't already been said. So I won't. But I will recommend that you look at the figure that he signed for (listed above), and think long and hard about whether he is worth it. And if you come up with any answer other than "no", keep looking at it until you do. In 2013, a 33 year old Rashard Lewis is going to be being paid nearly $22.7 million. It's freakin' bizarre. Or freakin' stupid, pick your own adjective. Both work.



So now, ask yourselves whether the trio of Hill, Milicic and Diener (who should, without a doubt, have played over Carlos Arroyo all of last season, and who is now nicely lined up for a breakout season) is going to help any more than Rashard Lewis on his own. It's a tough answer, but either way, the Magic's player personel did not improve much. If at all.



Last season's mediocre performance suggests that the good run to end the 2005/06 season was nothing more than an aberration. With better coaching and better performance this season, the Magic have the opportunity to show that it was last season that was the anomaly instead. If Orlando gets breakout performances from one or perhaps a couple of young players (specifically looking in the directions of Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick), they could contend for the open Southeast Division title.


If you only read those three passages, then I wrote a damn fine piece. However, I ended it like this:

Perhaps a more realistic expectation, though, would be for a low playoff seed once again.



Um, well, that's proven to be wrong so far.

Currently, the Magic reside atop the Southeast Division, with a record of 22-13. Their nearest rivals in the division are the Washington Wizards at 16-15, who apparently just lost Gilbert Arenas for the rest of the season. And in third place are the Atlanta Hawks, who are trying to justify my playoff call with a 15-16 record and a damn tough schedule thus far.

The Magic are the third seed in the East thus far, which is no mean feat given how the top two teams (Boston and Detroit) are by far and away superior to the rest of the conference. Now obviously they're inevitably going to lose this third to the mighty and surging Chicago Bulls (you heard it here first), but even so, they should still come fourth in the East. And that's not a "low playoff seed".

So somewhere along the line, barring dramatic unpredictable implosion, I've made a boo-boo.

I stand by my views on the Rashard Lewis deal, as he quite frankly hasn't been even nearly worth it thus far. I also can't be expected to have predicted the Keith Bogans Jumpshot Spectacular that's bizarrely given unto us by the Lord this season, although I won't be entirely surprised if he regresses to somewhere near his career norm any day now. The point guard play still isn't very good, although I did overlook the fact that Carlos Arroyo's contract is expiring, which always leads to him giving forth a more concerted effort. And I strongly admire Orlando General Manager Otis Smith's efforts to sabotage his team's good play with another poor trade, needlessly shipping Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook, two players who offer nothing that Orlando couldn't have gotten from within. The chances are that Smith has at least one more of those left in the gun yet, too.

But mainly, the prediction is my own fault, and it's rather to simple to see why.

I forgot to account for the fact that Dwight Howard is, quite simply, the shit.

Whoops. Sorry, Dwight.

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Sunday, 16 September 2007

30 teams in 36 or so days: Orlando

Orlando

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Rashard Lewis (signed and traded from Seattle, 6 years, $112,753,504)
Adonal Foyle (two year minimum)
Marcin Gortat (two year minimum)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: None
Second round: Miroslav Rakovic (60th overall, unsigned)



Players retained:

Keyon Dooling (opted in), Pat Garrity (opted in)



Players departed:

Travis Diener (signed with Indiana), Grant Hill (signed with Phoenix), Darko Milicic (signed with Memphis), Bo Outlaw (unsigned, may yet return)





Bobbins:

In a seven day period in February 2006, first year GM Otis Smith made two trades. One saw the expiring contract of Kelvin Cato and a 2007 first rounder (later parlayed into Rodney Stuckey) dealt to Detroit for Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo, and one saw falling star Steve Francis dealt to New York - in a trade only Isiah Thomas could make - for Trevor Ariza and the huge expiring contract of Penny Hardaway.

Within a week, the floundering Magic had been re-invigorated. Since the McGrady/Hill era had failed several years prior, the John Weisbrod era had made the Magic's fortunes worsen further. Managing to do almost everything wrong, Weisbrod saw fit to end the McGrady in Orlando era by dealing him and Juwan Howard to Houston for Francis, Cato and Cuttino Mobley, a trade which vastly improved Houston but which didn't do much for Orlando. Daring and skilled enough to somehow make the situation worse, though, Weisbrod subsequently traded Mobley to Sacramento for Doug Christie, a man who played only 21 games with Orlando, scoring 119 points. And that's not to even mention the Varejao and Gooden for Battie deal with Cleveland that he also rustled up.

Weisbrod then resigned. Which seems fair.

Yet, with these two trades in early 2006, Otis Smith had managed to get some serious value for the two remaining pieces from the McGrady to Houston trade. Able to free himself of Francis's enormous contract and burdensome play (if ever there was such a thing as addition by subtraction, this was it), Smith was setting his team up for big cap space in the summer of '07 after Hill's contract also expired, while also picking up two decent youngsters in Milicic and Ariza. And he obtained all that for peripheral pieces that he didn't want or need.

The situation then got even better almost immediately after these deals. With a 19-34 record after losing on the night of the Francis deal, Orlando won only 1 of their next 7 games, before winning 16 of the following 20. The streak saw the Magic's younger players come into their own - Dwight Howard continued to be really good at stuff, and Jameer Nelson showed some terrific scoring efficiency. Darko Milicic's first halfway decent run of playing time in his NBA career gave him the opportunity to show off what skills he had, and he showed himself to be a gifted shotblocker and talented scorer, even if he couldn't rebound for shit. Carlos Arroyo's first half-season as a Magic player made him look like a useful piece for a young up-and-coming team to have, while Hedo Turkoglu and Tony Battie looked like being good veterans to have around for a more concerted playoff push in 2007. Were it not for a similarly strong finish by the Chicago Bulls, the Magic's terrific end of season run would have gotten them to the playoffs (maybe), quite a turnaround from a team that was as many as 20 games under .500. In 2007, Grant Hill was set to return, and Magic fans were happy.

It should have been so great. It wasn't.

The 2006/07 began brightly enough, with Orlando pushing out to a 13-4 lead. But the injury bug soon bit, as it so often does to the Magic. Battie, Hill, Ariza and Keyon Dooling all got injured, and the Magic were left thin. Carlos Arroyo's brief 2006 flirtation with decency ended quickly, as he regressed back to his ineffectual, what-the-hell-is-a-playbook-and-where-did-I-put-my-jumpshot self. Nelson and Milicic also regressed: Nelson chucked with considerably less efficiency than the previous season, and made no strides with his sub-par running of the offense, and Milicic scuttled about everywhere with a certain air of despondence. Grant Hill got injured, which you'd expect, and his namesake and sister - head coach Brian Hill - proved to be absolutely awful.

The Magic did make the playoffs, doing so with a sub .500 record, but it wasn't worth much - they were quickly swept by the Detroit Pistons.

Still, all was not lost. The Magic still had some young pieces that were still waiting to leave the nest, along with one of the best young superstars in the game in Howard. And with Grant Hill's contract finally expiring, the Magic also had near-max cap room if they chose to use it.

They did. Jesus, did they ever.

It would be very difficult if not impossible to provide a commentary on the Rashard Lewis sign-and-trade while also managing to take an interesting or unique viewpoint, or to say anything that hasn't already been said. So I won't. But I will recommend that you look at the figure that he signed for (listed above), and think long and hard about whether he is worth it. And if you come up with any answer other than "no", keep looking at it until you do. In 2013, a 33 year old Rashard Lewis is going to be being paid nearly $22.7 million. It's freakin' bizarre. Or freakin' stupid, pick your own adjective. Both work.

The move was made just that much more baffling when looked at in addition to quotes by Otis Smith before the start of the summer, on how he intended to obtain a much needed scorer for the Magic while also having the resources and cap management to be able to keep the younger talent (namely, Darko Milicic). Smith's response was that it would involve some "creative financing". And in a sense, he was true to his word - Roget's thesaurus shows that "creative" has a synonym of "original". And the Rashard Lewis deal was most certainly original, if nothing else.

In obtaining Lewis, the Magic have wildly overpaid, but also lost some talent. Restricted free agents Darko Milicic and Travis Diener were renounced in order to bring in Lewis, and despite the apparent efforts of Smith, Seattle could not be persuaded to take back any salary from Orlando, meaning that all their cap space went on one player.

So now, ask yourselves whether the trio of Hill, Milicic and Diener (who should, without a doubt, have played over Carlos Arroyo all of last season, and who is now nicely lined up for a breakout season) is going to help any more than Rashard Lewis on his own. It's a tough answer, but either way, the Magic's player personel did not improve much. If at all.

It was a situation that could well have been avoided had Tony Battie not been given an extremely presumptuous extension back in March 2006, and had the unnecessary signing of Keith Bogans not taken place. Those two players combined for a $7.64 million cap hit this summer, whereas Milicic and Diener signed for a combined $8 million. Which duo would you rather have?

(Oh, and there was also the Billy Donovan fiasco, but we'll say no more about that. Embarassing, but not debilitating.)

In the interests of fairness, I should mention the acquisitions of Adonal Foyle and Marcin Gortat.

There, I've mentioned them.




Next season:

Given that things didn't exactly pan out ideally in the free agent market, and without any players from the draft to speak of, a large part of the Magic's future success rests on the shoulders of new head coach, Stan Van Gundy. And I promise you that this next stanza will include no references to Ron Jeremy.

By not being Brian Hill, Van Gundy has already improved the Magic's coaching situation. But if he can find a way to improve on Hill's rotations (and it shouldn't be that hard. Here's a starting point - play Redick. He has his flaws, but he's not Keith Bogans. That's a big plus), and offensive sets (don't just force feed Dwight Howard. Get him touches, but don't go to him every time down. Mix up your plays, and let things flow somewhat. Especially when Jameer Nelson is your point guard), then things will be looking up. It would also be a big help if Van Gundy is somehow able to not completely alienate himself from the players and to preside over something other than an irrepairably sour locker room, things that Brian Hill reportedly could not achieve.

Additionally, a lot depends on the play of Jameer Nelson. After a down year last season, tragedy struck this offseason when his father died in an accidental drowning incident. How this affects Nelson remains to be seen, but will soon be known. There are traditionally two ways to go here: one would be to become demotivated, á lá Michael Sweetney. The other way to be to take that adversity and build upon it to make himself a better player.

The Magic need the second one.

Last season's mediocre performance suggests that the good run to end the 2005/06 season was nothing more than an aberration. With better coaching and better performance this season, the Magic have the opportunity to show that it was last season that was the anomaly instead. If Orlando gets breakout performances from one or perhaps a couple of young players (specifically looking in the directions of Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick), they could contend for the open Southeast Division title.

Perhaps a more realistic expectation, though, would be for a low playoff seed once again. The Magic's talent level is not yet comparable to that of the East's elite teams. Peripheral players Arroyo, Dooling and Garrity combine for roughly $11.4 million of expiring contracts this offseason. The Magic would do well to capitalise on that. For they could use a further big infusion of quality. They didn't get one this season, yet so badly need one to rejoin the top of the East.

A stopgap season then, if you will.

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