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Remember Milk
I hated the appointment of Steve Kerr as the Phoenix Suns General Manager. Hated it. I freaking loved Steve Kerr as a player even if I did miss his best years, but I didn't like his writing much, thought he was a poor announcer, and he ruined my entire NBA Live 2006 experience with his insistence that Kirk Hinrich was in some way like Steve Nash. (They're both white and keep their dribble alive when circling the baseline! IDENTICAL!!!) Why would a man whose take on the NBA was limited to the games he was commentating on suddenly be qualified to run an NBA franchise, short as he seemed on experience, the CBA know-how, and the depth of knowledge base that was surely required for such a position? How much can you learn about the prognosis of thousands of potential NBA basketball players worldwide when sitting alongside Marv Albert? I hated the entire idea. Similarly, I hated the Shaquille O'Neal trade when it happened. Hated it hated it hated it. The Phoenix Suns' style of play under Mike D'Antoni wasn't really getting anywhere, but was the answer really to trade for a player who commits your team to a life of halfcourt play, yet who isn't effective enough any more to build an offense around? And why would a team that had recently gifted away Rajon Rondo and Rudy Fernandez for immediate financial savings now be so willing to take on the huge contract of a declining player, commiting them for the foreseeable future to the salary tax that they had been so desperately trying to avoid? It was all the eggs in one basket, and the basket wasn't worth it. However, as I am wont to do, I have since backtracked on both opinions. Acquiring Shaq has not affected the Suns's ability to acquire talent, as I feared it might. No longer are they selling first round picks, and they have made good free agency pickups, such as Matt Barnes and Grant Hill, even though they seem to be getting highly favourable discounts to do so. Despite the Jason Richardson trade seeing the Suns take on slightly less money than they gave out, and their dogged insistence on running with the NBA's bare minimum number of players at all times, the Suns haven't made drastic roster changes just to get under the luxury tax, like other teams have. They have found their payroll limit (just above the tax threshold) and kept it there. Phoenix may have about $4 million of their MLE unspent, but at least they aren't foolishly dumping Leandro Barbosa just to save a few million. In purely relative terms, this is progress. To this end, Kerr has made some decent roster moves. Signing Hill for the Bi Annual Exception and Barnes for the minimum salary are absolute steals at their price, and Kerr did well to pick up the strangely overlooked Louis Amundson (who's always been able to do exactly what he's doing now, yet who Sacramento and Philadelphia let slip through their fingers). Kerr was also smart enough to insist upon Jared Dudley, a decent young role player who doesn't understand beards, in the Richardson trade with Charlotte. It bears repeating that the trade worked financially even with Sean Singletary in and Jared Dudley out of it, a variant which would have seen the Suns save a significant chunk of money in the process, an added bonus for a franchise always looking to save money. Yet Dudley was included anyway, seemingly at Kerr's insistence, and the trade as a whole saw one of the league's weakest starting shooting guards upgraded dramatically for little more of a cost than an expensive, replacable backup ( Boris Diaw). Kerr also made what I still believe a solid draft pick with Robin Lopez at number 15, who has been some kind of shit thus far, but whom I still blindly feel will turn out all right. (Stick with Lopez, Suns fans. He can play. He just sort of.....hasn't.) Admittedly, I have absolutely no bloody idea quite what the Suns see in Goran Dragic, whose only redeemable skill so far seems to be his rebounding, something that isn't exactly vital from your point guard. But even that might pay off in time. You never know. Dragic won't shoot 29% and foul this much forever. You just have to stay ignorantly confident in the face of his special-kind-of-bad performances so far. This doesn't mean, though, that the moves have worked. They haven't. After being roundly shat on by Boston last night, Phoenix sit with a 23-16 record, and in that same place that they had so wanted to avoid - good enough to be good, but not good enough to be good enough. Futher still, the Suns' future prospects are not good. The younger players of Lopez, Amundson, Dudley and Alando Tucker are all decent, but there's not a starter amongst them, and there may never be. Phoenix's financial situation still shows no hope of providing flexibility any time soon, yet the team's competitive nature means they'll never get a high first round pick. Most disturbingly of all, their supposed young superstar, 26 year old Amare Stoudemire, seems to be regressing, unwilling or unable to overcome his problems with defense, rebounding, fouls or petulance. We're seven years in now, and despite all the physical tools, Amare has never learnt - or never tried - to be the defender that he could be. Without this, the Suns are treading water. Perhaps trading Amare is the answer. Getting a highly talented defensive player for the power forward position (someone in the role of Emeka Okafor) completely redefines the Suns interior defense, their biggest weakness, and even though it leaves the team with a starting frontcourt featuring two players with absolutely no offense to respect outside of the lane (thereby making it even harder than it's already become for Steve Nash to get to the rim), the Suns have the makings of a potentially good defensive system. But maybe the scapegoat shoudn't be placed on the shoulders of one of the league's best offensive big men, or onto the General Manager who put together one of the stronger 8 man rotations in the league today. Perhaps it should go on the man who can't get much out of them. The current Suns are a slower and less efficient version of their former selves, on both ends. The 2008 Phoenix Suns were 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency, transformed now into a team with the 4th best offense and the 26th best defense. And it's not all due to the loss of Raja Bell. Terry Porter, a supposedly defensive minded coach, can't seem to coach defense. As Brent Barry once said, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Two of the best defensive teams in the league - Cleveland and Boston - boast former Defensive Player Of The Years in Ben Wallace and Kevin Garnett, respectively. The two also host between them a variety of other decent defensive players, such as Anderson Varejao, Kendrick Perkins, LeBron James and Rajon Rondo, all of whom combine to create a system that can both mask and enhance the defensive (li-)abilities of some of their team mates. Phoenix don't have this. They don't have any of it, really. Steve Nash takes a ton of charges, but can't keep anyone in front of him. Jason Richardson often has a distinct strength advantage, but he struggles with the quicker guards. Grant Hill can't run backwards as well as he used to. Amare Stoudemire doesn't try as hard on that end of the floor, and watches the ball almost as much as he does on offense. Shaquille O'Neal is still a reasonably feared interior defensive player, but only if he doesn't have to move. You can't make much out of these ingredients. These aren't the makings of a decent defensive unit. There's no lockdown perimeter defender, no anchor in the middle, or enough disruption of the passing lanes. There's not even enough rebounding, as the Suns have only the league's 12th best rebounding differential. Distinctly average. As was their defense. Maybe Barry is right. The Suns are in no way chicken shit, but they haven't the personel with either the players or the coaches to put together the defensive unit needed to get the team over the hump, one that they still can't see the top of. Trading for Shaquille O'Neal helped, as have many of the recent pickups, but it hasn't been enough. And what certainly hasn't helped the defense is changing coaches. Perhaps they should change up the personel again. Perhaps the Nash era is reaching a logical conclusion. Perhaps trading Amare really is the answer. Perhaps they could put together a package for Andrei Kirilenko, or someone of that nature, giving them someone who can vastly improve their defense, while also not preventing a return to their running game. Perhaps they could replace Terry Porter, or all of the coaching staff, and find a team of coaches committed yet able to create a defensive scheme that will compliment and support the roster's natural offensive talent. Perhaps they'll just stop playing Goran Tragic. In the mean time, they could start pushing the ball again and play to their strengths. Labels: Alando Tucker, Amare Stoudemire, Goran Dragic, Grant Hill, Jared Dudley, Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Louis Amundson, Matt Barnes, Mike D'Antoni, Robin Lopez, Shaquille O'Neal, Steve Nash, Suns
Offseason Preview: Charlotte Bobcats
The second in a new series of posts detailing teams financial outlooks for the upcoming free agency period, what cap room they have, what exceptions, what draft slots, etc. Should be fascinatingly fascinating, if you're easily pleased. No information is 100% guaranteed accurate, but unless you're privy to hitherto unknown information, or just better at this than I am (highly possible), then it's probably more accurate than you. To be completed in an order best described as "Random".
Charlotte BobcatsCurrently Committed Salary, 2008/09:Jason Richardson - $12,222,221 Gerald Wallace - $9,500,000 Nazr Mohammed - $6,049,400 Matt Carroll - $5,050,000 Adam Morrison - $4,159,200 Raymond Felton - $4,148,715 Sean May - $2,661,026 Jared Dudley - $1,222,320 Total: $45,012,882Team options:Othella Harrington - $2,552,000 (no chance) Jermareo Davidson - $711,517 (probable) Total including options: $48,276,399Unrestricted Free Agents:Derek Anderson (cap hold - $1,001,793) Earl Boykins (cap hold - $924,732) Restricted Free Agents:Emeka Okafor (qualifying offer - $7,082,635, cap hold - $13,568,268) Ryan Hollins (qualifying offer - $972,581, cap hold - $893,693) Draft picks:First round: 8th pick, subject to lottery results. (Cap hold - $2,002,600) Second round: 38th pick (no cap hold) Cap room/exceptions:None, unless they renounce Okafor....which they won't. MLE and BAE, no trade exceptions. Depth chart if you take all the free agents away:PG - Felton SG - Richardson, Carroll SF - Dudley, Morrison PF - Wallace, May C - Mohammed Sensible things to do:Change coach. Re-sign Okafor, but don't overpay - let him find out how weak the market is the hard way. Get backup guards that don't suck, and whose presence the coach won't hold against Felton. Keep Hollins or Davidson, but not really both because there's not much point. Pray for a rainout. Labels: Bobcats, Derek Anderson, Emeka Okafor, Jared Dudley, Jason Richardson, Jermareo Davidson, Matt Carroll, Nazr Mohammed, Offseason Information, Othella Harrington, Raymond Felton, Sean May
30 teams in 524 or so days: Charlotte
Players acquired via free agency or trade:
Jason Richardson (acquired from Golden State)
Players acquired via draft:
First round: Jared Dudley (22nd overall)
Second round: Jermareo Davidson (36th overall)
Players retained:
Derek Anderson (re-signed, one year minimum)
Jeff McInnis (re-signed, one year minimum)
Matt Carroll (re-signed, six years, $26,900,000)
Gerald Wallace (re-signed, six years, $57,000,000)
Ryan Hollins (exercised team option)
Walter Herrmann (exercised team option)
Primoz Brezec (opted in)
Players departed:
Alan Anderson (signed in Italy)
Jake Voskuhl (opted out, signed with Milwaukee)
Brevin Knight (waived, signed with L.A. Clippers)
Bobbins:
In a recent debate with someone about who the eight playoff teams in the East are going to be this season, debate raged as to who would be the 8th team. We discussed the possibility of the eighth seed being Orlando, Washington, Milwaukee, and even Atlanta, before finally settling on one which I won't mention (because it will spoil a later post).
Neither of us debated the possibility of Charlotte being the eighth seed. This is because we had both already pencilled them as the seventh, with absolutely no contention from each other.
There's two possible conclusions that you can draw here. The first would be that the two of us basically don't know what the hell we are talking about, which is a good point well made that I am unable to counter. The second would be to assume that, yes, Charlotte is a playoff calibre team. And that point, I can defend.
The franchise got off to a slow start after expansion, as you would expect, but slowly the Bobcats picked up pieces along the way. Starting around Emeka Okafor and building outwards, nothing much has gone right for the Bobcats before this summer. Mired deep in the lottery, and bound by the salary cam limitations that the NBA seems to strangely enjoy putting onto new franchises, the Bobcats achieved little on-the-court success, struggling through the growing pains that expansion teams are somewhat mandated to go through. All the losing didn't really pay off either, given the shockingly unsuccessful selection of Adam Morrison at number 3 in last year's draft.
Along the way, though, the Bobcats have slowly been assembling pieces. Despite only Gerald Wallace and Primoz Brezec remaining on the roster from their initial expansion draft (someone's going to have to explain to me one day quite what the point was of selecting so many free agents that they then didn't sign), Charlotte have picked some players up along the way for cheap, players that have helped their on-court product. Brevin Knight (recently waived, but we'll come to that) added veteranness and that, and also played fairly well. Pickups on the cheap such as Matt Carroll and Walter Herrmann have paid dividends, and the Bobcats have added good young players through the draft such as Okafor and Raymond Felton (notice that I didn't list Morrison).
This summer, they added the scoring punch that they sorely lacked, in obtaining Jason Richardson from Golden State for next to nothing. The move has its downsides - with contract extensions for Felton and Okafor coming up in the not-too-distant future, and with Gerald Wallace and Matt Carroll re-signing this summer to 6 year contracts, adding the big salary of Richardson takes away the financial flexibility that Charlotte previously enjoyed. It commits them to this current core for at least the short term, whether it is good enough or not. And it also means that the awesome unredoubtable Matt Carroll gets less court time, which is disappointing for all concerned. But it plugs the slightly important 20 point a game scorer that Charlotte has always lacked. Draw your own Jason Richardson/Michael Jordan comparisons, they're all stupid.
In addition to this, the Bobcats spend well in retaining most of their players from last year, and obtained two possible rotation players in Jared Dudley and Jermareo Davidson via the draft. I don't really know any more about them than that, so I'll leave that there.
Next year:
As I said above, Charlotte seemed like a strange choice for automatic inclusion into my predicted playoff seedings. They haven't, to coin a phrase, done shit yet. But despite being only a 33 win team a year ago, they have three big factor working for them:
a) They had a big infusion of talent this offseason, more so than most teams.
b) They have continued interal growth from their young core players.
c) They're relatively healthy. Well, except Sean May.
To elaborate on point C, the Bobcats do have an injury prone roster. Star big man Emeka Okafor has played in only 166 of the 246 games of his career, which is a poor ratio, and star forward Gerald Wallace set a career high in games played last year with a rather uninspiring 72.
Everyone is healthy at the moment, apart from Sean May, who is to miss the season with more surgery on his cartilege-free knees, and who I'm willing to bet never plays more than 40 NBA games for the rest of his life. Despite the fact that injuries to the Bobcats are about as inevitable as a Jonny Gomes swing and a miss on a down and away curveball, they have the sort of depth right now thay they have never had before, which will help them to overcome it. Last year's starter Matt Carroll is now a key bench player, joinining a deep wing rotation including Wallace, Richardson, Dudley, Morrison, and last's year breakout player and Lord of the Sex, Walter Herrmann. Herrmann shined late last season filling in as an emergency power forward as the injuries piled up yet again, but he's now faced with lengthy stays on the bench as Charlotte stocked up the wing positions this summer. It also appears that head coach Sam Vincent thinks it's best to start Emeka Okafor at power forward alongside Richardson, Walace and either Primoz Brezec or Ryan Hollins at center, and we can only hope that it won't take long for him to realise that it would be best to play Okafor at center with Wallace and Herrmann as the forwards. Walter needs his court time, dammit, if us neutrals are to have any interest in watching Charlotte this year.
The Bobcats are weak at the center position though, in spite of their improved depth, and Jeff McInnis is the full time backup point guard. But it's not really that important: the backup point guard spot has never been important enough to be able to sabotage an entire season, even if it is Jeff McInnis. After all, the San Antonio Spurs just won a title without a backup point guard worth a damn. By the way, someone (namely me) ought to point out the irony of waiving Brevin Knight for reported chemistry issues and locker room diviseness, then re-signing Mr Chemistry 2007 McInnis to take his place. A strange one, that.
Nonetheless, the Bobcats plugged other gaps, andTo make the playoffs, the Bobcats only realistically need about 8 more wins. Is adding a 20 point scorer for no real cost good enough to do that, especially when youf actor in all the other shit that I outlined above?
Probably. Labels: Alan Anderson, Bad Predictions, Bobcats, Derek Anderson, Jake Voskuhl, Jared Dudley, Jason Richardson, Jeff McInnis, Jermareo Davidson, Matt Carroll, Primoz Brezec, Ryan Hollins, Walter Herrmann
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