"Every night, when you lay your head on your pillow, you say, 'Wow, I'm one of 300.' Of course, 50 of us are real bad." - Scott Hastings


 
 

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Wednesday, 28 January 2009

Apologies To The Denver Nuggets

I hated the Marcus Camby trade. I hated it. I think everyone did, even Clippers fans. But I really hated it.

I think about trades a lot. I should really have better things to do, but I don't. So I spend a lot of time thinking about trades that have happened, moves that have been made, who would fit on which team, players that certain teams needed, who'll sign where and for what, etc. This is because I don't have many friends. But at not point did I think, "a current DPOY candidate and former winner, on an extremely fair value contract, is going to be moved for nowt more than a trade exception." You just don't consider these as possibilities, do you?

But it happened. And it annoyed the hell out of me.

It annoyed me for one simple reason - the move was financially motivated, and I hate all financial motivated moves. I wrote about as much here, and, in the interests of saving time, I'll quote myself:

When teams make bad personal [sic] moves to save money, purely as collateral damage from their own previous stupid move, then the fans become the victims to the folly that is the NBA and its old boys network.

I hate any move that involves a team giving away an asset just to save money, with them deeming the financial saving as "necessary" due to their own cap mismanagement. That's exactly what happened here - the Nuggets, perennial tax payers, were forced to start saving money by their ownership, and the best way for them to do this was to dump Camby's salary for no return. The moved saved them $20 million this season, plus about the same next season, yet it saw an NBA team literally gifting away one of the best players at a position persistently devoid of much quality. Anyone's outrage at that was justifiable.

However, there was an underlying justification to the move that I, like most people, didn't acknowledge.

Marcus Camby is a very good player. Always was, still is. But the Nuggets had someone who would have been one of the best backups centres in the game last season, were it not for an unfortunate bout of cancer - Nene. In Nene's only three seasons of full health (or, in the case of the 2006/07 season, near to full health), he has proven to be a starting calibre centre in this league, combining power and athleticism with good defensive skill, and some rudimentary offense. He had averaged double figures whenever healthy, an acceptable if mediocre rebounding rate, and some good defense. You don't get many backup centres like that.

The Nuggets gave Nene a very big contract back in the summer of 2006, despite Nene playing only three minutes the previous season. They were denounced for this move; we knew that a healthy Nene was a good player, but a healthy Nene hadn't produced enough to justify a contract that size. The Nuggets had therefore paid Nene based on their expectations of what he would go on to become, but they did so after a 3 minute season and a severe knee injury. It was an unnecessary risk, but they took it anyway. Yet, like the Camby trade, it's worked out.

Nene averages 15.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.4 blocks on the season, averaging career highs in field goal percentage (61%) and free throw percentage (73%). Points per shot fans (such as me, and perhaps only me) will be delighted to know that Nene is averaging 1.64 points per shot this year, which is the high echelon territory of a prime Shaquille O'Neal, or Yotam Halperin. He leads his team in plus/minus by a long way, and this is a team that features both Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony. (In fact, you can add Billups and Anthony's plus/minus statistics together, and Nene's is still higher.) Nene's PER is a very healthy 21.6, good for second on the team, and his opponent PER is a decent 15.5. While Nene might not be exactly the most creative or skilled offensive player, relying largely on opprtunity and rhythm to score his points - he is also one hell of a powerful finisher, with some touch and grace to go with it. He can also get out and run better than almost all of his peers at the centre position, creating easy offense just through trying hard. And you can never have too much of that.

Put simply, on both ends of the court, the artist formerly known as Maybyner Hilario can play.

This wasn't sufficiently considered, though, by critics of the Marcus Camby trade. We knew Camby could play, but we forgot that Nene could, too. Kenyon Martin's long overdue return to full health has further helped to cope with Camby's absence, and Chris Andersen's hugely effective play off of the bench has Camby almost completely redundant. The financial aspects of the trade still effing stink, and the trade was still financially motivated (if it wasn't, the Nuggets could have found a better value trade for Camby that involved at least one decent player coming back, or even a first rounder, but this didn't happen because they wanted the absolute and complete salary dump), yet even the books are now balanced. The TPE created by the Camby trade facilitated the Allen Iverson trade with Detroit, allowing them to take back Antonio McDyess; his subsequent buyout, along with the Chucky Atkins/Johan Petro swap, sees the Nuggets finally under the luxury tax threshold. And because of those same moves, they're an even better team now than when they were above it.

(Note: OK, yes Mr Anal, they could have done the McDyess trade without the TPE. But they didn't. As a result, they were able to create a new TPE for $9.7 million - the difference between Iverson and Billups's salaries - which expires next November. Financial flexibility such as that is extremely powerful. And they wouldn't have had it otherwise.)

The last point before the small font bracketed bit is key. Denver were shamed and villified for the Camby deal, as it was seen as a triumph of ownership over fandom, of the big man over the little people, of corporations over hippies. But subsequent high quality moves, both in free agency and via trade, have seen the Nuggets build a more conventional team than they had before, and a higher calibre team than they had before, while also saving the money that they so needed to do. The Camby trade was a big part of this, as is Nene's continued breakout. I did not see this coming.

And for this, I am sorry.

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Thursday, 24 July 2008

Summer signings, round 8

- The Knicks signed Anthony Roberson, which is the sort of move that I'm usually sceptical of, but which in this instance I'm rather pleased with. The Knicks guards, basically, are all terrible. Only a Knicks fan, or someone who likes contradicting my sweeping generalisations, could really disagree with that. But within that, they all share a common drawback - they don't shoot too well. Chris Duhon passes up more threes than he hits. Quentin Richardson may have once held the all time record for three pointers attempted in a season, but that doesn't mean he's a good three point shooter. Mardy Collins is worse at it than both. Stephon Marbury has never had good range, and he probably won't be there to open the season anyway. Jamal Crawford is a good shooter, but inefficient due to his own misguided idea of quite how good at it he is. (86% of Crawford's field goal attempts are jumpshots, which is a freakin' huge number.) This leaves only Nate Robinson, who shot a meagre 33% on three pointers last season. Roberson, if nothing else, provides them with a second decent shooter from the guard spots (or third if you count Nate, which you might want to, if you hate me and everything that I represent). So at the very least, Donnie Walsh appears to have spotted a flaw in his current roster, and found a small remedy for it. That's a start.

- Herbert Hill, renounced by the Sixers as a part of their devious cap room plan, signed with Le Mans in France. Earlier this month, Hill was arrested for DUI, and when you combine that with the fact that he didn't play a single minute in the NBA last season due to knee surgeries, you can see why he might have not seen a return to the NBA as being immedate.

- J.R. Reynolds also signed in France, with Asvel Basket. Fun fact - we bought our house from a man called J.R. Reynolds. He didn't go by "J.R.", sadly, but if I'd mentioned that before the fact, then it would have made it less spectacularly fascinating. And no one wants that.

- The Denver Nuggets are the kind of team that trades away their better players in salary dumps, carry only 13 players on the roster, and pay as many people the minimum as possible. So, true to form, they've filled out their bench with two more minimum salary players in Chris Andersen and Dahntay Jones. Having said that, a minimum salary bench foursome of Anderson, Dahntay Jones, Bobby Jones and Anthony Carter is actually quite good, so I'll shut up now. (By the way, they'd better not start Carter this year. Chucky Atkins is hardly a better alternative, but....Anthony Carter?? Seriously? Trade for a point guard or something. Jesus. Or, alternatively, keep your first round picks and draft one. I'm theorising wildly now.)

- Bobby Brown signed with Sacramento, and not Golden State as I mentioned in an earlier post. The lesson, as always - visit this website every day, but don't come here for news. Just for, you know, scathing views and pictures of Sam Cassell touching himself and salaries and stuff. Also, I'm never trusting anyone again.

- Speaking of the Warriors, they've been the busiest team in the NBA this offseason, but in one fell swoop, they pretty much finished up their business. After Kelenna Azubuike signed an offer sheet with the L.A. Clippers last week, the Warriors began negotiating with Orlando free agent guard, Maurice Evans, with whom they agreed a three year contract. However, Evans then changed his mind, and held out for more money. Golden State, rightly not willing to play silly buggers with an inconsequential player, countered by matching Azubuike's offer sheet, something which they weren't originally going to do. They then tidied up A.O.B. by trading for Marcus Williams to fill the back-up point guard spot (this actually happened beforehand, but play along), re-signed Monta Ellis to a big money long-term deal, and signed second round draft pick Richard Hendrix. A good couple of days for the Warriors then. Their only remaining drama on an otherwise completed roster is the re-signing of Andris Biedrins, which hasn't happened yet. True to form, rumours abound that a European team is about to offer Biedrins a highly competitive if not superior rate of pay. That comes to you from the incorrigable Fannation.com


- Speaking of the Clippers, a few hours before losing out on Azubuike, they made the sort of the trade that I absolutely love when they dealt Brevin Knight to Utah for their own former starlet, Jason Hart. I LOVE trades like this. Love them. How can you not? It's fantastic. It's a trade so wonderfully, awesomely pointless, that the right adjective simply does not exist. Great stuff. I've always wondered who initiates trades like this. Who picks up the phone first? Did they ring each other at the same time? What roster holes do the teams think they are filling? Did Utah, recognising their need for improved perimeter shooting, mistakenly identify Brevin Knight as the solution, inadvertently obtaining one of the only point guards in the league that shoots worse than Jason Hart? Or were both teams just in "anyone but him" mode? Good stuff. Plus, if you're a Bobcats fan, there's the added bonus of the two players involved once forming a two headed Bobcat point guard monster, and now they're being irrelevantly traded for each other. Good times all around. Stupid, but fun.


Also, speaking of the Clippers being stupid......well, the Clippers are stupid. If you take my salary figures as being entirely correct - a dangerous proposition at any time - then this is how the current Clippers salary situation looks:

Baron Davis: $11,200,000, ish.
Marcus Camby: $10,000,000
Chris Kaman: $9,500,000
Cuttino Mobley: $8,925,000
Tim Thomas: $6,049,400
Eric Gordon: $2,623,200
Jason Hart: $2,484,000
Al Thornton: $1,776,240
Nick Fazekas: $886,517 (qualifying offer/caphold, restricted free agent)
Josh Powell: $854,957
Mike Taylor: $442,114
DeAndre Jordan: $442,114

Total: $55,183,542


That, against a salary cap of $58,680,000, leaves the Clippers with just under $3.5 million to finish up their roster. It's not an exact figure, because Baron Davis's salary is not guaranteed accurate (it's within $100,000 of that, at least.) It is, however, near enough to make my point.

The reason I mention this is that, if it were for slightly better cap management, they could have even more cap space. I shall explain.

As you probably know, the salaries for first round draft picks are set by the rookie salary scale, a scale of pre-determined numbers that dictate the salary for each first round draft slot, for every year of the current CBA. There does remain a bit of room for negotiation, though - players can sign for up to 120% of the amount outlined by the scale, or for as little as 80%. It is standard for all teams to sign their players to the full 120% of the scale: it is very rare for anyone to take anything differently. (The only two players in recent years to do otherwise were Sergio Rodriguez, who took 100%, and Ian Mahinmi, who took 80% in the first year of his rookie deal to help the Spurs avoid the luxury tax. Whether he did this magnanimously, or because the Spurs wouldn't offer differently, is unclear.) Eric Gordon, as is the custom, signed for the full 120%.

However, in the window between drafting a first rounder and signing them, the draftees have a cap hold for 100% of the rookie scale only. Thus, by signing him to the 120% of the scale while still under the cap, the Clippers just lost $437,200 in cap room. ($437,200 is the difference between 120% and 100% of the rookie salary scale for the 2008 7th pick.)

This may seem inconsequential, but it might not be. If you take that $437,200, add it to the $484,000 difference between the salaries of Jason Hart and Brevin Knight, add that to the $854,957 cap hold of the completely unguaranteed salary of the completely inconsequential Josh Powell that could easily be done without, add that to the $884,228 that could have been saved by not signing Mike Taylor and DeAndre Jordan already (unsigned second round picks do not have a cap hold), add that to the $886,517 that would have been opened up had Nick Fazekas been renounced, add the $3,496,458 of cap room from the maths outlined above, and subtract $1,768,456 for the four roster charges that would be charged for only having 8 players under contract.....

.....and you get $5,274,904. That's the cap room that the Clippers COULD have right now.

As mentioned above, it's not an exact figure, but the point it demonstrates remains valid. Right now, the Clippers have just a fraction less than $3.5 million in cap room remaining, but if they'd thought about it a bit more, they could have nearly $5.3 million. It wouldn't have cost them a significant player, either: Gordon, Jordan and Taylor would still have been signed, but just a bit later. And the idea that Fazekas and Powell would have been snapped up in the mean time - or the idea that it would have mattered in any way if that had happened - is extremely far-fetched.

The Clippers could have one and a half times their current cap space.
The difference between $3.5 million and $5.3 million in cap space over the span of a 5 year contract is $10.44 million dollars. A contract starting at $3 million over 5 years with maximum raises totals $20.3 million, and a contract starting at $5.2 million with maximum raises totals $30.74 million.

To put it another way, it is potentially the difference between Hedo Turkoglu and Eduardo Najera.

But, alas, it's too late. They can still renounce Fazekas and waive Powell, but it won't be optimum. The Clippers could have traded for Marcus Camby, signed Baron Davis, and still have had as-near-as-is an MLE left over. But they won't now.

The lesson, as always - screw Danny Ainge. (No, wait, sorry - I'm just stuck on loop saying that. I mean, screw Elgin Baylor. Yeah, that one.)





- And finally, speaking of Sam Cassell touching himself, here is Sam Cassell touching himself.



That will never stop being disturbing.

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Thursday, 17 July 2008

Summer signings, round 4

- Andreas Glyniadakis, former Pistons draft pick and one-time Sonic, has extended his contract with Costa Coffee in Greece. I hope that the sponsoring of team names never catches hold in the NBA, even when it leads to beautiful times.

- Ersan Ilyasova, whose NBA rights are still owned by the Milwaukee Bucks, has seen his contract with Barcelona extended. It seems odd that, in this instance, the NBA franchise has been the feeder club for the European team. 10 years ago, that just doesn't happen.

- Gabe Muoneke, a man on the fringes of the NBA for about 6 years now before finally getting a sniff with the Charlotte Bobcats last October, has signed with Asvel in France. Last season, Muoneke played in Iran, and he's probably made the right decision to get out.

- English supestar Pops Mensah-Bonsu has signed with Joventut Badalona in Spain, and, if I've ever called them Joventut Barcelona in the past, then I apologise. Pops will play alongside Ricky Rubio, and if you've heard that name but don't know much about him.......he's brilliant. He really is.

- Qyntel Woods has signed with Fortitudo Bologna. I want to make a joke about dogs, but I like dogs, so I won't. By the way, I sponsored a dog recently, and let me tell you - it's a damn scam. I take my time choosing which dog I want to sponsor, pay for a full year, but then they send me a letter saying "we're sorry, but that dog is no longer available to sponsor". And then they kept the money anyway. Bastards. So learn from my mistakes - if you're feeling philanthropic, sponsor a panda or a child or a leper or something. There's no value in the dog thing.

- Rodney White - possibly the worst player in modern history to have a triple double in an NBA game, depending on your view of Chris Duhon - has signed for Maccabi Tel Aviv, which is in Tel Aviv, Israel.

- Troy Bell has signed for Soresina in Italy's lower divisions. The drafting of Bell was quite possibly the worst roster move that Jerry West has ever made in the NBA, depending on how shit hot your NBA history knowledge is. (Mine's awful.) Players drafted after Troy Bell in 2003 include David West, Leandro Barbosa, Josh Howard, Kendrick Perkins, Boris Diaw, Jason Kapono, Carlos Delfino, Maurice Williams, Luke Walton, Zaza Pachulia, James Jones, Kyle Korver, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw........et cetera. Whoops.

- Former Denver Nuggets guard Vincent Yarborough has hit the big time, signing for Bonn in Germany. The mere mention of Vincent Yarborough has reminded me of how bad that 2002/03 Denver Nuggets team was, and so, for the hell of it, here is a run down of the whereabouts of everyone they gave an airing to that season.

1: Juwan Howard - unsigned, spent last season with the Dallas Mavericks.
2: James Posey - agreed today to sign with the New Orleans Hornets for 4 years.
3: Maybyner Hilario - the only one still with Denver, although he hasn't played much for a variety of reasons, including cancer.
4: Chris Whitney - long since out of the game. And the headlines.
5: Shammond Williams - now a Georgian citizen, somehow. Playing for Pamesa Valencia in Spain.
6: Rodney White - see above.
7: Donnell Harvey - recently joined the Charlotte Bobcats summer league team, but left early due to a family emergency. Unsigned. (By the way, speaking of the Bobcats summer league, Jackie Butler was supposed to be on it, but he never turned up. If we haven't done so already, can we officially scrub Jackie Butler from our minds? Thanks.)
8: Marcus Camby - yes, well, let's not talk about that.
9: Devin Brown - unsigned, last season played for the Cavaliers.
10: Jeff Trepagnier - unsigned, spent last season with Pau Orthez in France.
11: Kenny Satterfield - Scoop Jackson assures us he's fine.
12: Mark Blount - currently the Miami Heat's starting centre, which probably enthuses them no end.
13: Chris Andersen - unsigned, but that won't last. Played all of 34 minutes last year with the Hornets.
14: Lorinza Harrington - playing for the Philadelphia 76ers summer league team.
15: Nikoloz Tskitishvili - unsigned. Quick! Before someone snaps him up!
16: Ryan Bowen - unsigned, played last for the Hornets, Says he's "hopeful" of being re-signed, something which I agree with.
17: John Crotty - very very done, but I don't know what he does now.
18: Adam Harrington - unsigned, played last year in the D-League.
19: Predrag Savovic - has one year left of a five year contract that he signed with Bilboa in Spain back in 2004. Still sucks, but he has Luke Recker, Drago Pasalic, Mile Ilic, Quincy Lewis and Fran Vazquez for company.
20: Vincent Yarborough - see above.
21: Mark Bryant - didn't play again after leaving this very same Nuggets team. Now an Oklahoma City assistant coach.

Jesus. What a shite team that was.

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