Preview Sort Of Thing: Portland Trail Blazers

I write this post while speaking from inside a pair of Portland Trail Blazers shorts. It's not the smartest choice of garb right now, given that it's essentially snowing outside. But I'm wearing them anyway, because I'm a maverick, who doesn't play by the rules, a Mad Max gone maniacal, a man whose killing expertise and suicidal recklessness make him a Lethal Weapon to anyone he works against. Or with.

I own these shorts for two reasons:

1. As a cutting edge fashionista, I firmly believe in the simplified yet magnetic beauty of novelty oversized black shorts.

2. When I bought them back 2002, I counted myself as a Portland fan.

Over time, this feeling has dissipated. As my NBA fandom has gone from "hardcore" to "oh Jesus just kill yourself already", my allegiance to the Bulls became firmer than a Kevin Lyde backscreen, before slowing dying away into more of a general NBA kinship. Through that timeline, any Blazers allegiance was left by the wayside.

However, I never retracted the right to be able to crank that support right back up when I wanted to. The time for that is now.

(Note: I'm not claiming to be a Portland fan, even if I do invoke The Shorts Clause as a defense of any such claim. Instead, I am an NBA fan. And right now, all NBA fans are Portland fans. Or at least, they should be.)

Everything is coming up Milhouse in Portland. (Giggidy.) The team has the best colelction of young talent in the league, and easily the best that I've ever seen. Not even the 2003 Denver Nuggets can rival these bad boys. Every position is three deep, with the only hole in their rotation being at starting small forward, and even there it's all relative, as the duo of Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster have plenty of talent between them.

(By the way, I'm calling it now. Channing Frye to sign with Memphis next summer. Evidence? I have no evidence. I need no evidence.)

Portland has flair, athleticism, passing, shooting, rebounding, shotblocking, creativity, fundamentals and Steve Blake. Forget being a team "for the future" - this is a team for both the present the future. Rather than sacrifice talent for excitement, Portland combines the two, particularly from the bench, which houses exciting little bunnies liek Sergio Rodriguez, Jerry D. Bayless, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, and Joel "Streetball" Pryzbilla. This sheer depth also allows them to lose little when the starters come out of the game, especially on offense. If there's a mismatch somewhere on the opposing team, Portland has someone who can expose it.

There are some drawbacks, though. Portland's roster is so full of talent that it might not allow for players to fully develop, as the team offers at least two quality options at every position. Additionally, the core has shown to be rather injury prone at a young age, specifically Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, and financially, Portland will be on the hook for a lot of salary, particularly if the salary of Darius Miles is......

.........wait, what? What the hell am I saying? Those aren't important at all. And some of them aren't even real drawbacks. I just made them up. Jesus. Sorry. I think I felt obligated to be negative for a minute there, when it just wasn't necessary. This is nothing to feel bad about with Portland right now. The talent is stacked, the future is blinding, the owner will pay for it, and the fans are on alert.

*Puts on XXXL Rasheed Wallace jersey, bought for a staggeringly cheap price after Sheed's trade to Atlanta, even in spite of the fact that it's at least three X's too big for him. My re-allegiance is complete*

Let's embrace this.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are, quite possibly, the hardest team in the league to gauge right now. Every one of their significant players is a massive question mark. Other than predicting Larry Hughes will shoot a pull-up 18 footer on 85% of the fast breaks that he's involved in, there's nothing that you can say with any conviction about this current Bulls roster. It's a poser.

Theoretically, they could be great. This is still, essentially, the same 49 win second round team of the 2006/07 season, with only a few changes. The corpse of P.J. Brown has been replaced by Joakim Noah. The corpse of Ben Wallace has been replaced by Drew Gooden. And Chris Duhon has been replaced by Derrick Rose, which may or may not be an upgrade. (Sarcasm!) So, with those three upgrades, plus the return of Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni and Kirk Hinrich, plus the overdue-but-genuinely-forthcoming breakout of Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls should easily be able to usurp that 2007 team. Shouldn't they?

Well, no. The other change between then and now is the entire coaching staff. As outlined in the Milwaukee Bucks preview, Scott Skiles's coaching jobs have a shelf-life, but until it goes horribly wrong, he can make teams overachieve. The Bulls achieved what they did in 2007 despite having only the NBA's 20 best offense, purely because they had the best defense in the league. Skiles was directly responsible for that. However, after he lost the team last year - and after his replacement Jim Boylan proved to be about as much use as a surfboard with handlebars - the Bulls defense regressed to being middle of the road, and the offense was no better.

It's not known what Del Negro will try to do, and it's futile to guess. But it's a safe assumption to say that he won't bring the level of defense that Scott Skiles did, because almost no one does. The hiring of Vinny The Black, and the new assistant coach lineup of Bernie Bickerstaff, Bob Ociepka and Del Harris, shows a clear intent to focus on the long term, and to concentrate on player development, something badly mismanaged during the Skiles era. It's the right approach, and winning the lottery gives General Manager John Paxson a second chance to clear up the collateral from the Ben Wallace disaster. Yet, for all horny long term projections, the Bulls are currently awash in highly paid underachievers.

Additionally, those players have regressed. Players were paid in accordance of what they were expected to go on and achieve, but after last year's diarrhoea of a season, no one did what they were supposed to. Nocioni used to play with a clean form of aggression, one where willpower and effort overcame his inability to dribble and penchant for leaving jumpshooters often. But these days, he chucks, and he pouts. Ben Gordon briefly became a near-All Star 20 ppg scorer, with good scoring efficiency, and an improved ability to dribble without falling over. But this desire to fit in with the offense seems to have left him. Luol Deng's jumpshot was infallible, but only for one year. And Kirk Hinrich has managed to get worse at every single facet of the game. This isn't the team it once was, despite it still being the same core.

The talent is still there. The Bulls still have a 20 point scorer at shooting guard, a potential 21/8 small forward with fine defense, and a combo guard with elite defense and a good jumpshot. Added to that, they now have a young Stephon Marbury at point guard, plus whatever you think of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. Furthermore, only one of those players is over 25. As young cores go, this one is still good.

As of right now, though, the roster is a clusterfuck. All the pieces that used to fit seamlessly, no longer do. And they're not as cheap as they used to be, either.

It's turnaroundable, if that's a word. The players that broke themselves can mend themselves. But it will take dramatic improvement from a unit that spent all of last year going backwards. Hinrich needs to find his footspeed again. Gordon needs to develop some humility. Deng needs to get his jumpshot back, and add four feet of range to it. Nocioni needs to pretend he's playing for Argentina every night. Thomas needs to learn how to make layups. Noah needs to learn how to make layups. Thabo Sefolosha needs to learn how to shoot. Hughes needs to learn how to play. And Drew Gooden needs to stop pratting about with his facial hair. (This won't help his performance any. It's just a general point.)

If this was another team, we'd probably be watching them intently, fawning openly, dicks in hand, doused in our own pre-ejaculate at the exciting and potential-laden duo of Rose and Thomas, despite them sounding more like the compelling protagonists in a Baroque-era love story. But that's not going to happen here. This is the Bulls. It's been nothing but false dawns for ten years. No one's leading them anything. This time, they're going to have to win our trust, by winning something.

Quite right too.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks and their new head coach Scott Skiles are an eclectic mix. Recent Skiles-free Bucks teams have been capable of repeated instances of spectacularly bad defense, whereas recent Skiles-led Bulls teams (last year excluded) have been one of the best defensive units in the NBA. Make no mistake about it - Scott Skiles can coach defense. He really can. He even made Michael Sweetney and Eddy Curry into decent defensive players, briefly.

In theory, therefore, a union of the two will bring the much needed defensive improvement to an offensively strong Milwaukee lineup. Or at least, that's one way to look at it. Alternatively, Milwaukee might have just hired a coach that them away from their strengths, further exposing the flaws in their personel. This could go either way.

For every Skiles strength, there is a big Skiles flaw. While he's shown that he can teach help defense to those players previously written off as futile, he also has an awful playbook. While he can coach guards onto better things, he can't coach big men, yet insists that he can. For every young player that thrives under his guidance, one more will be alienated and broken. For every amusing sarcastic comment he makes to the press, he'll make someone hate him. And for every glimpse of the remaining strip of hair across his head that he claims as a hairline......well, actually, there's no flaw to that, it's awesome.

Perhaps mercifully, the Bucks don't have too many young players. Their identity as a veteran team looking for something to push them back into contention was cemented this summer, when they dealt the closest thing that they had to a promising youngster - Yi Jianlian - as the primary piece for an in-his-prime Richard Jefferson. In free agency, the Bucks picked up Skiles's bitch, Malik Allen, as well as other veteran backups Tyronn Lue and Francisco Elson. Trading away Mo Williams saw the Bucks get little of use back on the court, but they did receive Adrian Griffin, Skiles's other bitch, and another old fart with no potential. These moves combined to send out a rather clear signal - they'd quite like to make the playoffs next year, please.

It's probably true to say that the core of Bucks players would be good enough to compete for the East if you significantly improved their defense. They have weapons, after all. Along with one of the league's best shooters in Michael Redd, the Bucks boast the vastly improved Andrew Bogut playing exclusively in the posts. They also now offer 20 point scoring small forward Richard Jefferson and 48 point scoring power forward Charlie Vllanueva, who both offer something of an inside/outside game. And while the point guard duo of Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions offer little outside shooting, they're willing and able to pass, which should help.

But it's not as easy as just adding a shit-hot defensive coach. Scott Skiles has clearly defined strengths, thereby seperating him from many NBA coaches (hello, Larry Krystowiak!), but he also has his flaws. Even in the early going, these flaws are showing through. The Sessions/Griffin/Fresh Prince/Allen/Elson lineup has already reared its ugly head on more than once occasion in preseason, and if you want to excuse its presence as being injury- or preseason-induced, then you need to start bracing yourself, because Scott Skiles is VERY willing and able to use Malik Allen as a go-to guy. You have been warned. (Note: this threat is doubly true, given that Allen represents the Bucks' best pick and pop option. Pick and pops are about the limit of Skiles's playbook creativity. Expect Andrew Bogut to be involved in dozens of them, irrespective of his complete lack of a jumpshot.)

That lineup represents the Bucks' closest replication of what Scott Skiles loves more than anything as a coach: players who don't make silly mistakes, talent be damned. If that unit - or any unit - can't get a shot off in 24 seconds, or even get the ball over halfcourt, then no matter, just as long as they rotate on defense and don't get all unnecessarily talented on his ass. This is why thinly veiled threats to start Allen (or Mbah A Moute) over Villanueva have already been made. Villanueva's talent level makes him a far better option at satrting power forward than any possible Bucks alternative, yet precisely because of the nature of his flaws, he may lose playing time. As a coaching philosophy, this mistake-free, defense-first-and-only style gets your players and your team to a certain level of production and success. And then it will keep you there.

Of course, I'm biased. I've watched all bar about seven games of Scott Skiles's tenure, and while I used to defend him vigorously, those days passed once his flaws became more evident. I've witnessed Kirk Hinrich become temporarily brilliant, and yet I've witnessed Tyson Chandler emerge into an elite rebounder and useful offensive presence....for someone else. I've seen Chris Duhon play 8000 minutes, and yet I've seen Thabo Sefolosha become damaged irrepairably. I've seen a Bulls roster overhauled, gain an identity, assume a certain style of play, overachieve, tune out their coach, and fall apart. And it's affected my bias somewhat. I refuse to apologise for this.

Scott Skiles is a coach, whose CV screams "short term improvements". He has been united with a previously mismanaged team, now primarily focused on finding "short term improvements". That team's weaknesses fit in perfectly with Skiles's strengths. The fit is so perfect that it shouldn't be allowed.

And yet, I'm not convinced. Because I've been there.


Short term future: They'll be better than under Krystkowiak, mainly due to the loss of Krystkowiak. Scott Skiles at least knows what he's doing, and half the team will benefit from it. The other half will be moved.
Long term future: See the above Bulls cycle. I'd like to be wrong.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Sacramento Kings

As an aspiring GM with no qualifications or career prospects to speak of, and whose sole outreach into the world of the NBA is this distinctly amateur and unattractive site full of mild slander, I enjoy certain advantages. One of those is the ability to do what I want, to a half-arsed standard, and then to abandon it prematurely, due to a savage concoction of apathy and boredom. This explains what happened with last year's "30 teams in 30 or so days" series of predictions, where I started well, fell behind early, and then gave up roughly half way through. Get in.

This year, we're going to do it again. There will be predictions, and by the power of Greyskull, they're going to be woeful. Even better than that, it's October 19th, and the season starts in just over a week, yet there are 30 teams to cover. So don't be surprised if I only do about......oooh, five? ShamSports.com - run by an amateur.

The few posts that will be made are to be undertaken in a completely random order, with no semblance of logic or reasoning. And with that in mind, we begin with the Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings glory era ended a while ago. The days of the Adelman-era Kings, with Chris Webber, Vlade Divac, Hedo Turkoglu, Peja Stojakovic, Doug Christie and friends, are over. Webber's knee stopped working, Turkoglu surprised us all by actually getting good, Christie's now the white Dame Dash, and Divac now works for the Serbian government. Other than the incumbent Brad Miller, the final player from those days - Mike Bibby - was pawned off to Atlanta earlier this year for a rather generous return. And that was that.

So, with a end of an old era should come the start of a new one. "The King Is Dead", and all that. But it didn't. For three years, the Kings have done little but tread water. A 44 win season in 2006 has been followed up with 33 and 38 wins respectively, which put the Kings in that most dissatisfying of places - too good to lose without trying, not good enough to compete.

In that time, though, the Kings have had the right approach. Despite a couple of novelty oversized contracts to short term veterans (thank you, Bonzi Wells's former agent!), the Kings have used this time to clean out the old guard, save some Robert De Niro, and to bring in some decent young pieces. This trend continued this year, as the Ron Artest trade brought back Bobby Jackson (big expiring contract), Donte Greene (decent young piece) and a draft pick (a draft pick). Furthermore, they defied ESPN's fan grade of "F" when they drafted Jason Thompson at number 12, to everyone's surprise and widespread condemnation, but a move which (very) early on looks to have been savvy. They signed Bobby Brown out of the German league, thereby shitting once again on my already tenuous theory that ever nobody goes to Germany and later gets back to the NBA. (Thanks to all those who already pointed out that Casey Jacobsen did exactly that last year. Dammit, I was being facetiousness. This is the price you pay when you feel a moral compulsion to try and be funny - you're often wrong, as well as not funny.)

What the Kings have fashioned themselves is a roster full of decent young pieces. With the exception of Kenny Thomas - whose days as a viable NBA player are behind him - the Kings roster is filled with decent pieces, most of them young. Francisco Garcia is a nice piece. John Salmons is a nice piece. Kevin Martin is a very nice piece. Beno Udrih, Bobby Brown, Quincy Douby, Spencer Hawes and Donte Greene are all nice pieces, even if Greene is the most pathetically selfish player that I've ever seen. (And I've seen Tyrone Nesby.) The much maligned Shelden Williams is also a nice piece, who'll never justify his draft position, but who can help an NBA team. And even Bobby Jackson will be a nice piece for a few months, before being bought out in February and signing with the Hornets. (You heard it here first.)

Additionally, the Kings have an identity on the court. With Brown, Udrih and Douby, the Kings have guards who excel in the open floor, and with wing players like Salmons and Garcia along with big men Thompson and Mikki Moore to run with them, the Kings should have free reign to push the ball as often as they can. Based on preseason, they will. The new Kings are a young, athletic and talented bunch, who should entertain, even when they lose.

Financially, the Kings have overspent a few times in recent years. Brad Miller is no longer worthy of his eight figure contract, as the age and weed are catching up with him. Mikki Moore is paid like a starting power forward, but a starting power forward he is not, even if he is. (Did that make sense?) The same poorly phrased sentence can be used to describe Beno Udrih's new salary as a starting point guard. Francisco Garcia's new extension necessitates future improvements in his game to justify the salary and the number of years, or else it's excessive. And Kenny Thomas's contract is nothing more than dead weight. Yet, the Kings' cap situation isn't a problem, despite these small mishaps. Miller's big salary comes off the books in 2010, as does that of Kenny Thomas. Shareef Abdur-Rahim's contract will magically disappear soon due to the injury-enduced retirement rule thing, and even if it doesn't, that expires in 2010 too. As things stand - Francisco Garcia's extension excluded - the Kings figure to have $25 to $30 million in cap space in the big name 2010 offseason, with all of their significant players signed. That figure will no doubt decrease slightly over time, but it nevertheless represents a plan. A lot of teams already have, or will soon develop, plans for cap space in the summer of 2010 offseason, but the Kings are ahead of the game and already have one. And they'll have some decent youth to add to that.

There are drawbacks, though. $25 million of cap space in 2010 should get anyone's juices flowing, but it's currently nothing more than speculative. In contrast, the facts of the current situation show that Kevin Martin is the Kings best player. Martin is a fine player, someone whom every team would want, but who also shouldn't be your best player. If he is, you either need to be in the Eastern Conference and with an almost perfect replication of the Pistons' championship winning team from 2004, or you're not going to get very far. Sadly for Kings fans, it's the latter. Additionally, for all of their strengths when pushing the ball, the Kings will often bog down in the halfcourt. With little creativity or playmaking from the point guard spot, and with not a great deal of consistent outside shooting in the rotation, a lot of the Kings halfcourt offense will depend on Martin, and the high post/low post passing of Miller and Hawes. When armed with comparatively few options, it becomes rather easy for the opposition to take the Kings out of whatever they want to do, and Sacramento has little individual creativity to overcome this.

On nights when it clicks, when the Kings make shots and run on all misses, it'll look glorious. The young and athletic roster will tempt the fans, and hint at a good looking future. But on other nights, the Kings will look like what they are.

Average.

The Kings have the right idea, and they are halfway to the right roster. But, for now, they're several yards behind.


Short term future: Too good to suck, not good enough to compete.
Long term future: It could be beautiful. Or it could be anti-climactic.

With apologies to Dwight Howard

In my season preview of the Orlando Magic, written back in October and located here, I wrote something that looks a bit stupid in hindsight. At this point, I'd quite like to try and weasel my way out most of it.

The following are some quotes that I stand by:

It would be very difficult if not impossible to provide a commentary on the Rashard Lewis sign-and-trade while also managing to take an interesting or unique viewpoint, or to say anything that hasn't already been said. So I won't. But I will recommend that you look at the figure that he signed for (listed above), and think long and hard about whether he is worth it. And if you come up with any answer other than "no", keep looking at it until you do. In 2013, a 33 year old Rashard Lewis is going to be being paid nearly $22.7 million. It's freakin' bizarre. Or freakin' stupid, pick your own adjective. Both work.

---

So now, ask yourselves whether the trio of Hill, Milicic and Diener (who should, without a doubt, have played over Carlos Arroyo all of last season, and who is now nicely lined up for a breakout season) is going to help any more than Rashard Lewis on his own. It's a tough answer, but either way, the Magic's player personel did not improve much. If at all.

---

Last season's mediocre performance suggests that the good run to end the 2005/06 season was nothing more than an aberration. With better coaching and better performance this season, the Magic have the opportunity to show that it was last season that was the anomaly instead. If Orlando gets breakout performances from one or perhaps a couple of young players (specifically looking in the directions of Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick), they could contend for the open Southeast Division title.

If you only read those three passages, then I wrote a damn fine piece. However, I ended it like this:

Perhaps a more realistic expectation, though, would be for a low playoff seed once again.

Um, well, that's proven to be wrong so far.

Currently, the Magic reside atop the Southeast Division, with a record of 22-13. Their nearest rivals in the division are the Washington Wizards at 16-15, who apparently just lost Gilbert Arenas for the rest of the season. And in third place are the Atlanta Hawks, who are trying to justify my playoff call with a 15-16 record and a damn tough schedule thus far.

The Magic are the third seed in the East thus far, which is no mean feat given how the top two teams (Boston and Detroit) are by far and away superior to the rest of the conference. Now obviously they're inevitably going to lose this third to the mighty and surging Chicago Bulls (you heard it here first), but even so, they should still come fourth in the East. And that's not a "low playoff seed".

So somewhere along the line, barring dramatic unpredictable implosion, I've made a boo-boo.

I stand by my views on the Rashard Lewis deal, as he quite frankly hasn't been even nearly worth it thus far. I also can't be expected to have predicted the Keith Bogans Jumpshot Spectacular that's bizarrely given unto us by the Lord this season, although I won't be entirely surprised if he regresses to somewhere near his career norm any day now. The point guard play still isn't very good, although I did overlook the fact that Carlos Arroyo's contract is expiring, which always leads to him giving forth a more concerted effort. And I strongly admire Orlando General Manager Otis Smith's efforts to sabotage his team's good play with another poor trade, needlessly shipping Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook, two players who offer nothing that Orlando couldn't have gotten from within. The chances are that Smith has at least one more of those left in the gun yet, too.

But mainly, the prediction is my own fault, and it's rather to simple to see why.

I forgot to account for the fact that Dwight Howard is, quite simply, the shit.

Whoops. Sorry, Dwight.

30 teams in 56 or so days: Minnesota

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Greg Buckner (acquired from Dallas)
Michael Doleac (acquired from Miami)
Antoine Walker (acquired from Miami)
Theo Ratliff (acquired from Boston)
Ryan Gomes (acquired from Boston)
Al Jefferson (acquired from Boston)
Sebastian Telfair (acquired from Boston)
Gerald Green (acquired from Boston)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Corey Brewer (7th overall)
Second round: Chris Richard (41st overall)



Players retained:

None



Players departed:

Mark Blount (traded to Miami)
Ricky Davis (traded to Miami)
Kevin Garnett (traded to Boston)
Trenton Hassell (traded to Dallas)
Troy Hudson (bought out)
Mike James (traded to Houston)
Justin Reed (traded to Houston)
Bracey Wright (left unrestricted, signed in Greece)



Bobbins:

You probably want me, or expect me, to burn the shit out of Kevin McHale in this space, as I have done so many times in the past. But it's not going to happen. I actually think he's done a nice job this offseason, all things considering.

The reason I say "all these considering", is that McHale has done a rather nice job of restructuring a team that, apart from New York, was about the hardest possible team to reconstruct. With multiple long and bad contracts (you can see their almost-accurate payroll of last season here), and also with first round draft picks still owed to Boston and the Los Angeles Clippers, the Timberwolves were roundly fucked. With only a couple of young players worth a damn and with only superstar Kevin Garnett providing any value worth a damn, McHale had only one option - to trade Kevin Garnett and start again.

He could have gone the other way, signed a veteran, and made another playoff push, hoping that the impossible would occur and that the Timberwolves would suddenly have enough firepower to rival the West's best teams. That would have been a really stupid thing to do, though, It was also a really stupid thing to do last year with the Mike James signing, and it was a pretty stupid thing to do the year before with the Mark Blount trade. So thankfully, he and ever so slightly intrusive owner Glen Taylor didn't go this route again. If he had done so, euthanasia may have been justified.

Everyone seems to believe, though, that the Timberwolves did not get nearly enough in return for Garnett. KG's value isn't what it would have been had this move been made two years ago, but it was still very high. Critics, professional or otherwise, seem to believe that Minnesota did not get nearly enough in return for Garnett. They received Al Jefferson (one of the best young post players in the game, and incidentally, the upcoming winner of this season's rebounding title, and if you disagree then you're just wrong), Gerald Green (wildly overhyped prospect whose option they did not then exercise, bringing the hype back down to Earth), Ryan Gomes (useful role player), Theo Ratliff (massive expiring contract), Sebastian Telfair (far smaller expiring contract with a very outside chance of being a Marcus Banks type reclaimation project), and two first round picks, one of which was being returned to Minnesota after Boston got it in the Mark Blount/Wally Szczerbiak deal thing.

Let's put that into context. In other recent superstar trades, here's what transpired:

a) Miami trades Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, Caron Butler, first round pick (used on Jordan Farmar), second round pick (moved onto Dallas, turned into the insatiable Renaldas Seibutis) to the L.A. Lakers for Shaquille O'Neal (which would have been a decent return had the Lakers not then gifted Butler to the Wizards for Kwame Brown, a player who they didn't need then nor now).

2) Houston trades Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato to Orlando for Tracy McGrady, Tyronn Lue, Reece Gaines and Juwan Howard (basically horrific for Orlando).

3) New Jersey trades Aaron Williams, Eric Williams, Alonzo Mourning and two first round picks (one used on Joey Graham, the other dealt to New York and used on Renaldo Balkman) to Toronto for Vince Carter (unmitigated shitness regardless of circumstance).

4) Denver trades Joe Smith, Andre Miller and two first round picks (one traded to Miami and used on Daequan Cook with Jason Smith going the other way, the other dealt to Portland and used on Petteri Koponen) to Philadelphia for Allen Iverson and Ivan McFarlin (um, OK).



Now you tell me what historical precedent tells us about superstar's returning value in trades. It ranges from mediocre to freakin' awful.

And now tell me again why the package Minnesota got of a premium young player, big financial savings, two first round picks and a couple of potentially useful peripheral parts is such a bad thing.

In addition to the big trade, Minnesota made several smaller ones. In trading Trenton Hassell for Greg Buckner, they traded a player who was reportedly a right moanarse in the locker room, who had a big contract and who wasn't very good anyway, for a lesser player who doesn't moan and who has a lot less guaranteed money coming his way for fewer years. Trading Mike James for Juwan Howard again got them a player with less guaranteed money over fewer years, and buying out Troy Hudson's third partially guaranteed year again turned a three year contract into a two year one while losing no playe rof any significance (it's been a theme). And in the Mark Blount and Ricky Davis to Miami trade, Minnesota managed to again trade a big contract with three years remaining (Blount) for one with only two left (Walker), while also getting a first round draft pick in the deal.

It's only a shame that they couldn't swap Mark Madsen for Adrian Griffin or somebody. They could have then completed the set.





Next season:

If you're going to flounder and die, you might as well do so with some purpose to it. Nothing about the Timberwolves recent history offered up much in the way of hope. Since McHale began disbanding the 2003-2004 team (arguably the league's best team that year) with such heroic ineptitude that he just had to keep his job for three more years - using such tactical masterstrokes as trading Sam Cassell and a first round pick for Marko Jaric, and the previously mentioned Wally Szczerbiak trade - Minnesota has witnessed one subsequent year of frustrating mediocrity, and two years of something worse than that. In those two years, complete tank jobs have had to be pulled just so that the franchise was able to keep the pick it had originally given up to the Clippers for Jaric in the first place, and they won 65 games combined over the last two years for this reason.

It wasn't going anywhere, and with two first rounders owing and only two young players (Chris Smith and Randy Foye) worth a damn, they weren't getting out of the 35ish win range any time soon.

So they finally blew it up. And I'm glad. You should be, too.

It's just gone so tits up for so long basketball wise, that it's just refreshing to see things go rather well for a change. The dream of Garnett playing his whole career in Minnesota was still held by some, which has led to fall out, but it shoulda been shot to shit a long time before now. If it had, maybe those last two years need not have happened. In one offseason, Minnesota transformed itself from a team in transition going from bad to worse, into a team that may one day go places.

Of course, they might not. They are still led by the insatiable pairing of McHale and Taylor, who are always liable to fuck things right up in ways you never previously thought conceivable (Mark Madsen's still got three years left, by the way. I thought this needed highlighting twice, you see). But if they can stave off their compulsion to destroy everything (by the way, Two For The Money starring Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey isn't THAT bad of a film if you stop it at the hour mark), Minnesota might start headed places again some day soon.

There's a good chance that this new look lineup tops out in a few years at the 40 win barrier that the franchise just traded Garnett to get away from. Still, they can but try.

30 teams in 56 or so days: Miami

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Mark Blount (acquired from Minnesota)
Ricky Davis (acquired from Minnesota)
Smush Parker (signed, 2 years, $4,680,000)
Joel Anthony, Brian Chase, Devin Green, Penny Hardaway, Alexander Johnson, Jeremy Richardson and Marcus Slaughter (all signed to the minimum salary with assorted levels of partial guarantees. If you include holdovers Earl Barron and Chris Quinn, you have 8 players on the bubble, 4 of whom are going to have to be cut.)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Daequan Cook (21st overall, acquired in draft night deal)
Second round: None



Players retained:

Earl Barron (re-signed, unguaranteed qualifying offer)



Players departed:

Michael Doleac (traded to Minnesota)
Wayne Simien (traded to Minnesota)
Antoine Walker (traded to Minnesota)
Eddie Jones (signed with Miami)
Jason Kapono (signed with Toronto)
Gary Payton (put to sleep)
James Posey (signed with Boston)



Bobbins:

It seems fitting to "do" Miami next, given that they are a team recently in the news. If you are like me, and you're the kind of person that tends to get so excited when a transaction is made that a little bit of wee seeps out, then you probably secreted when you learnt of the recent Miami/Minnesota trade. That move saw Miami trades Antoine Walker, Wayne
Simien, Michael Doleac, a first-round pick and cash to Minnesota for Ricky Davis and Mark Blount, which potentially salvaged a crappy offseason for Miami.

Despite previous protestations about how the team would never be a taxpayer, last year's capitulation at the hands of the incomparably superior Chicago Bulls awakened Riley, Pfund and that lot to the fact that their team just isn't that good any more. The Heat had committed themselves financially to a core that had a championship window of exactly one year. They capitalised on that, winning the title in that one year of 2006, but they did so at a cost. The fallout from that left them with one young superstar and a heap of overpaid elderly codswallop. Codswallop, by the way, is a much underused word, especially in the NBA world. It means "nonsense", "rubbish", "crap", and stuff to that effect. I have two big aims for the world of basketball this year - firstly to get a complete scrub to the All Star game by mass manipulation of the online ballot (who this will be has not been decided upon yet, it depends on who is on the ballot), and also to get the word codswallop started on its long journey towards every day usage in the NBA world. Today, this day, this place, this paragraph, marks the start of that journey. Pay heed.

This elderley supporting case was enough to get it done in 2006, but last year the Heat showed their age. Starting point guard Jason Williams may only be 31, but he was exposed as a weakness last year - while the heart and head were willing, the knees were not. His backup, Gary Payton, was perhaps the worst rotation player in basketball last year. His main rival for that title was team mate Antoine Walker, while veteran centres Alonzo Mourning and Michael Doleac did not do much to offset the loss of Shaquille O'Neal, who had the worst season of his professional career as 35 year olds tend to do.

Needing to spend, and with permission granted from whoever it is that pays the bills, Miami then tried to get a bit of everybody. With starter Jason Kapono snapped up by Toronto within about 18 seconds of the free agency period starting, Miami let him leave unchallenged, rightly unwilling to pay that price tag. However, despite continuing to negotiate with James Posey, the Heat weren't able to convince him to stay either, as he signed with Boston. And with Eddie Jones having already signed with Dallas, Miami was left in the rather awkward position of not having any wing players that could make an outside shot, and also with the frankly scary possibility of having Antoine Walker start at small forward next year.

In addition to looking for a wing player or two that didn't suck, Miami was also seeking to upgrade their piss weak point guard position, and add a veteran big for insurance. These three seperate chases led them to pursue all manner of free agents and trade possibilities, from such diverse names as Maurice Williams, Charlie Bell, Mickael Pietrus, Allan Houston, P.J. Brown, Sasha Pavlovic, Ime Udoka, Mike Bibby, Juan Carlos Navarro, Ron Artest, Jannero Pargo, Rafer Alston, Corey Maggette, Steve Francis, Matt Barnes, Morris Peterson, Steve Blake, Gerald Wallace, Sarunas Jasikevicius, James Singleton and Vitaly freakin' Potapenko - basically, everybody. Only one of those moves went anywhere, when Miami signed Bell to an offer sheet, that Milwaukee swiftly matched.

The anti-climactic feeling of it all hit home when Miami announced their first two prominent free agency signings as being Smush Parker and Penny Hardaway, two players that are, frankly, a bit crap. The signings also summed up the bipolar nature of Pat Riley's offseason pursuits: after harping on for ages and ages about wanting a young and athletic lineup (the signings of players such as Parker, Marcus Slaughter, Alexander Johnson and Jeremy Richardsonhelp here), Riley also can't seem to resist trying to sign every old bastard that used to be any good (Jones, Hardaway, Houston), which seemed directly contradictory to the young athletes thing. But, oh well, whatever.

After the Bell thing went wrong, nothing much happened. The Heat continued to pursue all kinds of trades and free agency possibilties, to no avail. They rounded out their roster with more young athletes, and went to camp still working the phones but accepting the fact that nothing may come of it. And when Shaq's inevitable injury turned up and Dwyane Wade added in one of his own, the Heat were staring down a lottery spot.

Then just this past week, it got interesting, as Miami was finally able to do something. And the trade they made was a good one. They landed two of their probable top 9 players in Davis and Blount while only giving up spare parts to do so. Losing Antoine Walker is a case of addition by subtraction, Davis gives them a useful scorer and athlete at the wing position which Miami had sought all offseason, and Blount gives them a center whose limited face-up game is still useful when playing alongside Dwyane Wade, even if he does have a massive inability to catch.

All it really cost Miami was an extra year of Blount's big salary over Antoine's, and a first round pick that won't be high in an ideal world anyway. It's a trade that has put Miami back into the playoff picture, although they still aren't even nearly as good as their fans would like you to believe.

But who's to say that they've finished yet?



Next season:

In my Bobcats post, I talked about how I had decided upon my 8 Eastern seeds for the playoffs. Miami wasn't one of them at the time. Now, they are.

It's still a flawed team, with the worst point guard rotation around, and with the very overrated Udonis Haslem still starting at point guard. The team is still dependent on how much Shaq is willing to give a shit, and Miami is also still largely a two man team dependent on Shaq's health (and his continued descent towards mediocrity).

But that can be enough. The Cleveland Cavaliers, after all, are the epitomy of a one man team, and they amde the NBA Finals. They used a helluva lot of luck to get there, as their playoff matchups opened up wonderfully for them. But you can only beat who is in front of you, and that's what Cleveland did.

Miami is far from the best team in the East these days, let alone in the NBA overall. Their supporting cast to the two stars is rather poor, and the Shaq/Wade duo are not exactly the best examples of durability. But if various circumstances all come good at the same time, Miami has themselves a team that can make inroads in the East. If they can scrape into the playoffs and maintain good health all around at the most crucial time, then they won't be an easy matchup for whoever they play. Everyone said much the same last year, but they forgot two key things:

a) The Heat were never healthy.
b) Nor were they even nearly good enough.

This offseason, they've improved. They've cut out most of the crap, and added some talent. It's a better team than it was.

But it's not a title team. Not even close.

30 teams in as many days as it takes: Dallas

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Brandon Bass (two year minimum)
Trenton Hassell (acquired from Minnesota)
Eddie Jones (two year, full BAE)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: None
Second round: Nick Fazekas (34th overall), Reyshawn Terry (44th overall, unsigned), Reinaldas Seibutis (50th overall, unsigned)



Players retained:

Jerry Stackhouse (re-signed, 3 years, $22,376,250, I think)
Devean George (opted out, re-signed, 1 year, $2,369,111)
Devin Harris (signed a wildly oversized 5 year extension)
DeSagana Diop (exercised team option)



Players departed:

Greg Buckner (traded to Minnesota)
Austin Croshere (signed with Golden State)
Kevin Willis (unsigned)
Pops Mensah-Bonsu (waived, signed in Italy)



Bobbins:

The Mavericks have one of the worst young cores in the NBA. With only Devin Harris, Juan Jose Barea and Maurice Ager as the only returning players under the age of 26, and with only one of those playes able to crack any NBA team's rotation, Dallas enjoys (if that's the word) almost nothing in the way of prospects. There's Josh Howard of course, but he's 27 now, and while DeSagana Diop is still only 25, you're an optimist and an idiot if you think there's some skills in there that he's merely kept hidden for 6 years.

(Incidentally, did you know that Mavericks training camp signee Jamal Sampson is only 24 years old, despite being around for what feels like a million years, and that commonly accepted youngster Diduer Ilunga Mbenga is about to turn 27? Me neither. These things are worth noting. That is, they are worth nothing if you're really bitterly pathetic like me. If you are, hooray! We should hang out.)

Dallas tried to add to this somewhat this summer. Without a first round draft pick, they picked Nick Fazekas high in the second, thus once again insuring that they have a tall white forward who takes 85% outside jumpshots and who doesn't move well on defense. It's a recent trend that began with Keith Van Horn, was last year handled marvellously by Austin Croshere, who now passes the mantle onto Fazekas.

Fazekas figures not to play much, though, after the unheralded signing of Brandon Bass seems to have given the Mavericks a backup power forward worth a damn. After two years of bland nothingness with the Hornets, Bass was allowed to leave unchallenged when Dallas picked him up. Since then, despite it only being preseason, Bass has shown signs of being a capable player, and being only 22 he can join (or rather, "be") Dallas young core.

But then, who gives a shit about a young core when you've just won 67 games the season before? To add young talent is nice, but all Dallas really needed to do was to keep the core that they had, maybe add one or two pieces, and try all over again. They did this, adding some perimeter defense in Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell, while bringing back Devean George and Jerry Stackhouse for some more depth. The Mavericks can boast now one of the NBA's deeper teams, and they still rock the core that resulted in the 5th best record in NBA history last year (it was something like that, at least. I forgot what it was exactly).

They didn't blow it up, and under no circumstances should they have done. Watch as they now decimate the roster in a trade for Kobe.



Next year:

Much has been made of the Mavericks historic capitulation to the Warriors in round one of the playoffs last year, which set all kinds of trends that I can't rememeber. But what a lot of people tend to overlook was the sheer bad luck of it all. If any other team claims that eighth seed, Dallas polishes them off with no problem at all. Yet Golden State offered up by far and away the biggest matchup problem of them all, and it's them who Dallas drew.

The Mavericks did not help themselves by somewhat wilting under pressure, and Avery Johnson by his own admission did not make the correct adjustments.

None of this, however, means that the right way for the Mavericks to go is to start thinking "yes, what we need right now is the sub-30% clutch shooting of Kobe Bryant", or "we can never with win Dirk, let's trade him".

They have a formula, and it's one that works. It worked last year to the tune of 67 wins, and while regular seasons don't account for anything in the playoffs (as Golden State showed), it does serve to prove that this Mavericks team can beat all comers. All, that is, but one.

To solve Golden State (and believe me when I tell you that I realise how stupid it is to imply that a team's season rests on one matchup versus one solitary mediocre opponent), Dallas doesn't need to revamp their roster, but make some adjustments and not get rattled. They didn't, and so they lost. But were that situation to happen again, that's all it takes to avoid that drama again.

Dallas is arguably the best team in the league. The Spurs have the title and claim that crown, but Dallas is up there. They should once again finish with the best regular season record and win the Western Conference.

This year, they just need a better stroke of luck, and a dose of fortitude. If that happens, they may win the title. They're one of very few teams that are good enough.

30 teams in 524 or so days: Charlotte

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Jason Richardson (acquired from Golden State)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Jared Dudley (22nd overall)
Second round: Jermareo Davidson (36th overall)



Players retained:

Derek Anderson (re-signed, one year minimum)
Jeff McInnis (re-signed, one year minimum)
Matt Carroll (re-signed, six years, $26,900,000)
Gerald Wallace (re-signed, six years, $57,000,000)
Ryan Hollins (exercised team option)
Walter Herrmann (exercised team option)
Primoz Brezec (opted in)




Players departed:

Alan Anderson (signed in Italy)
Jake Voskuhl (opted out, signed with Milwaukee)
Brevin Knight (waived, signed with L.A. Clippers)



Bobbins:

In a recent debate with someone about who the eight playoff teams in the East are going to be this season, debate raged as to who would be the 8th team. We discussed the possibility of the eighth seed being Orlando, Washington, Milwauke