Training camp predictions, revisited

At the start of the month, over the course of three posts united by the overused theme of Alec Baldwin's monologue from Glengarry Glen Ross (one, two, three), I attempted to anaylse and predict the training camp rosters of every team in the NBA.

For the hell of it, here's the monologue again:




Preseason is now over, and rosters have been set. Here are my predictions again, along with a depressing look at their whimpering inaccuracy and some half-baked excuses for my own failings as a person.


- Atlanta Hawks

Signings: Juan Dixon, Othello Hunter, Mario West, Frank Robinson, Garrett Siler, Courtney Sims, Mike Wilks, Aaron Miles

Predicted to make it: "Dixon, Wilks, Siler. Or any two from three."

Actually made it: Hunter only.

Excuses: The Hawks needed an extra guard, hence why they signed four of them. So expecting them to sign at least one of them seemed logical. I guess Dixon hasn't enough left. As for the Siler/Sims thing, it never did make a whole lot of sense for the team with Randolph Morris at fourth string centre to be bringing in two more for training camp, but Siler and Sims represent two of the best American centre prospects not currently in the NBA, so I figured one of them had a chance. Guess not.




- Boston Celtics

Signings: Lester Hudson, Michael Sweetney

Predicted to make it: Hudson.

Actually made it: Hudson.

Excuses: Reports came out that stated that the Celtics really liked Sweetney, and tried to find a way to keep him on the roster, but they eventually decided that he wasn't worth eating someone else's guaranteed money for. And they're right. If ever Sweetney gets it together, loses all the weight and finds mentor that gets him to dedicate himself in ways he's never done before, some team will have themselves a frigne starter/quality backup, the kind of player that shouldn't be readily available. But it's not happened yet. Not even close.



- Charlotte & Bob Katz

Signings: Stephen Graham, Antonio Anderson, Dontell Jefferson

Predicted to make it: "Neither."

Actually made it: Graham.

Excuses: When I said "neither," I was referring to Anderson and Graham, and hadn't factored in Jefferson. I should have done, really, especially after the Bobcats signed Ronald Murray. Why they want Stephen Graham, I don't know; they already have enough small forward options, and Graham will do no better of a job masquerading as a power forward than the rest of them. But at the very least, he's the most talented of the bunch.



- Chicago Bulls

Signings: Curtis Stinson, Derrick Byars, Steven Hill, Chris Richard

Predicted to make it: "Byars or no one."

Actually made it: No one.

Excuses: Byars made it briefly, but was waived on opening day. He still hasn't appeared in an NBA game. He did as much as he could do in preseason, and played well enough to win the spot, but the finances of the situation got the getter of him. And they were always going to, in fairness.



- Cleveland Cavaliers

Signings: Luke Nevill, Andre Barrett, Coby Karl, Russell Robinson, Rob Kurz, Darryl Watkins, Jawad Williams, Danny Green, Darnell Jackson

Predicted to make it: "Jackson gets cut, Williams and Green survive, Karl and Kurz make the team."

Actually made it: Williams, Green, Jackson, Karl.

Excuses: Three for four's not bad, but the Cavaliers decided to keep Jackson over the rangier power forward Kurz. I'm not sure they should have done, since Kurz fills a role that the Cavs don't otherwise have, while Jackson somewhat replicates a slower and crapper J.J. Hickson. But since they're vying for the 14 man spot, it's probably not important anyway.

If Antonio Daniels joins the Cavs, it doesn't look good for Karl.



- Dallas Mavericks

Signings: Jake Voskuhl

Predicted to make it: None.

Actually made it: None.

Excuses: Dallas apparently wanted to keep Voskuhl, and tried to open a roster spot for him. They got halfway there when they traded Nathan Jawai to the Timberwolves, but they didn't complete a trade/buyout of Shawne Williams's contract in time, so Voskuhl lost out. He's rumoured to be headed to the Kings.



- Denver Nuggets

Signings: Joey Graham, Keith Brumbaugh, Kurt Looby, Dontaye Draper, James White.

Predicted to make it: "Only White."

Actually made it: Only Graham.

Excuses: The Nuggets need an extra shooter, and Graham is a terrible one. White isn't much of one either, but he's comfortably better at it than Graham, and would have cost the same. Graham also doesn't really bring anything different to what Renaldo Balkman does, and so that's why I didn't fancy his chances. But then the story came out about how the Nuggets were at one time willing to trade Linas Kleiza for Graham. And at that point, it was over.



- Detroit Pistons

Signings: Chucky Atkins, Maceo Baston, Deron Washington

Predicted to make it: "Probably neither, unless Atkins shows there's still a spark on the fire. If there is, he needs to throw a log on it."

Actually made it: Atkins did, Washington didn't.

Excuses: As described here, Washington shouldn't have been a candidate to be waived. But he was, as Atkins apparently showed there was still a spark in the fire, enough of one for Washington to be needlessly waived.



- Golden State Warriors

Signings: Diamon Simpson, Shaun Pruitt

Predicted to make it: "Neither."

Actually made it: Neither.

Excuses: This one was a bit obvious. The Warriors' only non-guaranteed contract is that of Anthony Morrow, and not even the dysfunctional Warriors could get that wrong. By the way, have you noticed that their four acquisitions via trade and free agency this summer were Mikki Moore, Devean George, Acie Law and Speedy Claxton? Can it get much worse than that?



- Houston Rockets

Signings: Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Garrett Temple, Will Conroy, Romel Beck

Predicted to make it: "[Brent] Barry waived, Pops makes the team."

Actually made it: Barry was waived, Pops made the team.

Excuses: The downside to this, as mentioned, was that it leaves the Rockets with only two point guards, and none of the players on the roster can really masquerade as one. Shane Battier did it a tiny bit in his rookie year, but that was a long time ago, and it wasn't a good idea even then. Nonetheless, that's not a need until it's actually a need. And since the Rockets are a team made up of glue guys with very little offensive creators anyway, what good would keeping an inactive list point guard do for that?



- Indiana Pacers

Signings: Rod Benson, Demetris Nichols, Lawrence Roberts

Predicted to make it: "None of them will make it, because the Pacers already have 15 contracts."

Actually made it: None of them made it, because the Pacers already had 15 contracts.

Excuses: The only possible way in for the camp invites was if they could outplay Luther Head and/or A.J. Price, whose contracts are not fully guaranteed. But a slew of injuries at the guard spots saw those two play big minutes in preseason, and play them rather well. So even though Rod Benson did well in his audition, the numbers were against him once again.



- L.A. Clippers

Signings: Anthony Roberson, Kareem Rush, Taj Gray, Jerel McNeal

Predicted to make it: "I'd like McNeal to make the team, but suspect that Rush will."

Actually made it: Rush.

Excuses: Rush didn't shoot the ball well in preseason - then again, he doesn't often shoot the ball well - yet seemingly he was tall enough to win a roster spot. That's how it works, apparently.



- L.A. Lakers

Signings: Thomas Kelati, Tony Gaffney, David Monds, Michael Fey, Mickael Gelabale

Predicted to make it: "If Gelabale proves his health, he will make the team. If he does not, none of them will."

Actually made it: None of them.

Excuses: Tony Gaffney put on a damn good charge for the spot, but unfortunately, his minimum salary was deemed to be too much. Here's the thing, though; the Lakers stated their intentions early to have only a 13 man roster this season, due to them currently having the biggest payroll in the league. As such, the camp invites never really a had a chance. Why, then, did they bring so many in? What was the point? Even when someone (Gaffney) won you over enough to want to keep him as a player, you still couldn't do it, because the finances dictated the situation. So then why bring in players like Fey, who have no chance of making the roster, since all they can do is get injured and hamstring your finances? Don't get this.

I also don't get why a team that absolves itself of all youth chooses to own its own D-League affiliate; the Lakers currently have no players eligible for assignment down there. Whatever, though.



- Memphis Grizzlies

Signings: Thomas Gardner, Trey Gilder, Mike Taylor, Leon Rodgers

Predicted to make it: "If they [buyout Marko Jaric], I predict Gilder will make it; if they open a second spot, I predict Gilder and Taylor make it."

Actually made it: They didn't buyout Jaric, thus keeping on only 1; Gilder.

Excuses: Sorry about completely missing out on news of the Thomas Gardner waiving for the best part of three weeks. I'm not as good at this as I was in my youth, and am just simply not eighteen years old any more.

Also, it appears that Steven Hunter is actually healthy to play, appearing in multiple preseason games and playing 9 minutes on debut tonight. He hasn't played well at all yet, but he's playing, thus making me responsible for yet more misinformation. Sorry about this as well.



- Miami Heat

Signings: Shavlik Randolph, Andre Brown, Alade Aminu, Anthony Tolliver, John Lucas

Predicted to make it: "I'm predicting none of the 5 to make it; however, if any of them do, I vote Lucas, Randolph, Tolliver, Aminu and Brown, in that order."

Actually made it: Carlos Arroyo and Randolph.

Excuses: I chose that order pretty much solely on the basis of the Heat's depth chart; they needed help at the point guard and power forward spots, and while Randolph was the best power forward option, Lucas was the only point guard option. The Heat clearly saw that, and surprised us all by bringing in Arroyo partway through preseason. Didn't see it coming. A good move, though.



- Milwaukee Bucks

Signings: Charles Gaines, Marcus Hubbard, Mark Tyndale, Dominic James

Predicted to make it: None of them.

Actually made it: None of them.

Excuses: Cheated slightly here, since all of them had already been waived before I wrote my prediction. But I'm claiming it anyway, because I need all the success I can get.



- Minnesota Timberwolves

Signings: Jared Reiner, Jason Hart, Alonzo Gee, Mustafa Shakur, Jack McClinton, Devin Green

Predicted to make it: "If and when the buyouts with [Antonio] Daniels and Mark Blount are finalised, the Wolves will have two roster spots. At that point, they'll need a point guard, which bodes well for Hart. Releasing Blount will leave the Timberwolves with only five big men, two of whom are Brian Cardinal and Oleksiy Pecherov (whom, since they're expiring, are also slim possibilities for being released, as is Damien Wilkins). So that gives Reiner a chance. I'm predicting him and Hart."

Actually made it: Hart and Nathan Jawai

Excuses: Apparently I can't count; they needed only to release Daniels to open two spots, which they did. A buyout of Blount wasn't finalised in time, but my logic was at least right; Minnesota opted to keep a point guard and a big. They kept Hart, but decided to bring in Jawai over Reiner. Hadn't considered that a possibility at the time. But it's probably best.



- New Jersey Nets

Signings: Brian Hamilton, Will Blalock, Bennet Davis

Predicted to make it: "None of them."

Actually made it: "None of them."

Excuses: The Nets didn't have any roster space, they won't spend any money this year, and none of the three has NBA talent. They liked Hamilton, in the same way that all teams love defensive minded athletic forwards, but they didn't have any roster space. So this one was self-explanatory.



- New Orleans Hornets

Signings: Earl Barron, Larry Owens

Predicted to make it: "The Hornets could use someone with centre size, particularly if they're going to pawn [Hilton] Armstrong off to the Clippers as I'm predicting they'll do between now and February. As such, they could use Barron, and any and all frontcourt offense is welcome. But despite all their cost cutting moves this summer, the Hornets are still over the tax (hence the Armstrong suggestion). So even if they freed up a roster spot by salary dumping Devin Brown or whoever, any additional signing would then cost them double. And is Earl Barron worth that? No. So for that reason, he's out. (Owens is out too, and I guarantee I'll be right about him this time. Hopefully.)" [A long-winded way of saying 'neither of them.']

Actually made it: Neither of them.

Excuses: Same as the Nets; the Hornets have no roster space and no money.



- New York Knicks

Signings: Ron Howard, Marcus Landry, Chris Hunter, Joe Crawford, Sun Yue, Warren Carter, Gabe Pruitt

Predicted to make it: "Crawford and Pruitt."

Actually made it: Landry only.

Excuses: Strangely, the free spending Knicks opted to keep a roster spot open instead of keeping an unguaranteed 15th man. This was kind of unexpected. Also unexpected was Marcus Landry's blazing hot three point stroke; he first demonstrated in summer league, but after a four year career of only decent shooting on few attempts at Wisconsin (with the shorter three point line), him being such a fine shooter is perhaps unexpected. But it's what's kept him around.



- Oklahoma City Thunder

Signings: Ryan Bowen, Mike Harris, Michael Ruffin, Tre Kelley

Predicted to make it: "It should be just Harris, but for some I suspect it'll be just Ruffin. Maybe I'm too cynical."

Actually made it: Bowen only.

Excuses: Not cynical enough, apparently. I respect Ryan Bowen, because any man who can keep getting jobs in a field where he's so badly underqualified is clearly doing something so very very right. But why he keeps getting these gigs, and why NBA executives are so enamoured with players who understand the nuances of defence in lieu of having any discernible talent, I will never understand. Good luck to him, though.



- Orlando Magic

Signings: Morris Almond, Linton Johnson

Predicted to make it: "I'm going to go ahead any say they'll keep them, even though they probably won't. (If that makes sense.)"

Actually made it: Neither of them.

Excuses: No idea what I just said here, but apparently Orlando isn't willing to spend any more on luxuries after all. And why should they? They've got enough talent right now to win the NBA title. A strong inactive list will change nothing.



- Philadelphia 76ers

Signings: Brandon Bowman, Rashad Jones-Jennings, Sean Singletary, Stromile Swift, Dionte Christmas

Predicted to make it: "In spite of needing a shooter more urgently, they've got to keep Swift. It matters not that they have [Primoz] Brezec, Marreese Speights and the returning Jason Smith: you can never have too much frontcourt depth. And even if he didn't show it for the Suns, Stromile is great frontcourt depth. This is more of a plea than a prediction."

Actually made it: No one.

Excuses: Stromile was injured in preseason, which will have factored, but seemingly the Sixers don't rate him as much as I do. Apparently not many people do. Has he really fallen off this much between the ages of 28 and 29? I find it hard to believe. We'll wait and see, though.



- Phoenix Suns

Signings: Carlos Powell, Dan Dickau, Raymond Sykes

Predicted to make it: "None of them."

Actually made it: None of them initially, but then they picked up Jarron Collins off of waivers.

Excuses: All brothers jokes aside, I don't understand the need for Jarron Collins. Robin Lopez is injured, and the Suns are short of quality size, but Jarron Collins isn't quality size.



- Portland Trail Blazers

Signings: Quinton Hosley, Ime Udoka, Donell Taylor, Jarron Collins

Predicted to make it: Collins.

Actually made it: None of them, as Patrick Mills was unexpectedly signed towards the end of preseason.

Excuses: Nate McMillan wanted to keep Udoka really badly, and if the Blazers had been able to foresee Nicolas Batum's injury, then maybe Udoka would have stayed. As it is, Mills gets a spot, despite currently being injured and having no short term role on the team. (I still think it's possible that Mills accepted his tender offer without the Blazers wanting him to, as this would explain the very weird timing of the signing. If this is true, or even if it's not true, please let me know.)



- Sacramento Kings

Signings: Lanny Smith, Melvin Ely

Predicted to make it: "As a result, neither player will make the team, as the Kings are already carrying the minimum of 13 players. It also doesn't help that neither is NBA calibre."

Actually made it: Neither of them.

Excuses: Once again, I can't count; the Kings had 14 players at the time, and still do. Desmond Mason made the team even in spite of his unguaranteed contract, and although he joins a stacked small forward rotation (weakened a bit by Francisco Garcia's freak physio-ball injury, he always had the talent to make it. Unlike the others.



- San Antonio Spurs

Signings: Curtis Jerrells, Dwayne Jones, Malik Hairston, Marcus E. Williams

Predicted to make it: "There's not enough room for Jones, and after the signing of [Keith] Bogans, the Spurs wing positions just got full as well. Jerrells might be the least skilled of the bunch, but the depth chart is most in his favour, so I vote for him."

Actually made it: Hairston.

Excuses: Jerrells' position and amount of guaranteed money certainly made his chances look promising. Instead, though, it seems he's going to join Hairston and Williams in the Spurs' juggling act between the big league team and the Austin Toros, getting paychecks here and there as incentive to hang around with the Toros and essentially extend the Spurs' roster to 18 players. It's sneaky, but it's totally legitimate. This, Lakers, is how you're supposed to use an affiliate.



- Toronto Raptors

Signings: None.

Excuses [theirs, not mine]: "Our roster is already full." Maybe so. But it's also got Quincy Douby and Marcus Banks on it. You can always improve.



- Utah Jazz

Signings: Wesley Matthews, Goran Suton, Ronald Dupree, Alexander Johnson, Spencer Nelson, Paul Harris

Predicted to make it: "If [there's] only 1 [spot available], I vote for Matthews. If it's 2, I vote for Matthews and Suton. If it's 3, I vote for Matthews, Suton and Dupree. If it's 0, shame."

Actually made it: It was 1, and it was Matthews.

Excuses: Utah had the same sort of thing going on as the Lakers - open roster spots, but a huge payroll, and not a whole lot of incentive to keep someone on. However, unlike the Lakers, the Jazz had injuries; Matt Harpring will almost certainly never play again, and C.J. Miles is out for a while after thumb surgery. As such, they needed an extra player, which is where all the auditions came in. And Matthews did enough of everything

It's going to look like I'm just saying this because he's made the team, so please trust me that I'm not; I always thought Matthews was underrated at Marquette last year. Maybe he does nothing exceptional, but he does everything pretty well, and he doesn't look as athletically disadvantaged as advertised. There should always be a place for players who are solid at everything. There should be less places for players who are only good at the defensive "little things."



- Washington Wizards

Signings: Vincent Grier, Paul Davis

Predicted to make it: "Neither. The Wizards already have 14 players and are in the tax, so taking on extra players for the inactive list won't be done unless they're hit by their usual injury bug."

Actually made it: Davis only.

Excuses: Antawn Jamison got injured again, and I'm fully prepared to count that as being "hit by their usual injury bug." It suits me to do so.

My playoff bracket

As requested. Note the intricate graphic work that so befits the World's Ugliest NBA Website (©), and the lack of incisive follow-up commentary so befitting of an insomniac.

Gary Payton? Is that you?

When you're ready, fella. I'll even buy you the trunks.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Portland Trail Blazers

I write this post while speaking from inside a pair of Portland Trail Blazers shorts. It's not the smartest choice of garb right now, given that it's essentially snowing outside. But I'm wearing them anyway, because I'm a maverick, who doesn't play by the rules, a Mad Max gone maniacal, a man whose killing expertise and suicidal recklessness make him a Lethal Weapon to anyone he works against. Or with.

I own these shorts for two reasons:

1. As a cutting edge fashionista, I firmly believe in the simplified yet magnetic beauty of novelty oversized black shorts.

2. When I bought them back 2002, I counted myself as a Portland fan.

Over time, this feeling has dissipated. As my NBA fandom has gone from "hardcore" to "oh Jesus just kill yourself already", my allegiance to the Bulls became firmer than a Kevin Lyde backscreen, before slowing dying away into more of a general NBA kinship. Through that timeline, any Blazers allegiance was left by the wayside.

However, I never retracted the right to be able to crank that support right back up when I wanted to. The time for that is now.

(Note: I'm not claiming to be a Portland fan, even if I do invoke The Shorts Clause as a defense of any such claim. Instead, I am an NBA fan. And right now, all NBA fans are Portland fans. Or at least, they should be.)

Everything is coming up Milhouse in Portland. (Giggidy.) The team has the best colelction of young talent in the league, and easily the best that I've ever seen. Not even the 2003 Denver Nuggets can rival these bad boys. Every position is three deep, with the only hole in their rotation being at starting small forward, and even there it's all relative, as the duo of Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster have plenty of talent between them.

(By the way, I'm calling it now. Channing Frye to sign with Memphis next summer. Evidence? I have no evidence. I need no evidence.)

Portland has flair, athleticism, passing, shooting, rebounding, shotblocking, creativity, fundamentals and Steve Blake. Forget being a team "for the future" - this is a team for both the present the future. Rather than sacrifice talent for excitement, Portland combines the two, particularly from the bench, which houses exciting little bunnies liek Sergio Rodriguez, Jerry D. Bayless, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, and Joel "Streetball" Pryzbilla. This sheer depth also allows them to lose little when the starters come out of the game, especially on offense. If there's a mismatch somewhere on the opposing team, Portland has someone who can expose it.

There are some drawbacks, though. Portland's roster is so full of talent that it might not allow for players to fully develop, as the team offers at least two quality options at every position. Additionally, the core has shown to be rather injury prone at a young age, specifically Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, and financially, Portland will be on the hook for a lot of salary, particularly if the salary of Darius Miles is......

.........wait, what? What the hell am I saying? Those aren't important at all. And some of them aren't even real drawbacks. I just made them up. Jesus. Sorry. I think I felt obligated to be negative for a minute there, when it just wasn't necessary. This is nothing to feel bad about with Portland right now. The talent is stacked, the future is blinding, the owner will pay for it, and the fans are on alert.

*Puts on XXXL Rasheed Wallace jersey, bought for a staggeringly cheap price after Sheed's trade to Atlanta, even in spite of the fact that it's at least three X's too big for him. My re-allegiance is complete*

Let's embrace this.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are, quite possibly, the hardest team in the league to gauge right now. Every one of their significant players is a massive question mark. Other than predicting Larry Hughes will shoot a pull-up 18 footer on 85% of the fast breaks that he's involved in, there's nothing that you can say with any conviction about this current Bulls roster. It's a poser.

Theoretically, they could be great. This is still, essentially, the same 49 win second round team of the 2006/07 season, with only a few changes. The corpse of P.J. Brown has been replaced by Joakim Noah. The corpse of Ben Wallace has been replaced by Drew Gooden. And Chris Duhon has been replaced by Derrick Rose, which may or may not be an upgrade. (Sarcasm!) So, with those three upgrades, plus the return of Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni and Kirk Hinrich, plus the overdue-but-genuinely-forthcoming breakout of Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls should easily be able to usurp that 2007 team. Shouldn't they?

Well, no. The other change between then and now is the entire coaching staff. As outlined in the Milwaukee Bucks preview, Scott Skiles's coaching jobs have a shelf-life, but until it goes horribly wrong, he can make teams overachieve. The Bulls achieved what they did in 2007 despite having only the NBA's 20 best offense, purely because they had the best defense in the league. Skiles was directly responsible for that. However, after he lost the team last year - and after his replacement Jim Boylan proved to be about as much use as a surfboard with handlebars - the Bulls defense regressed to being middle of the road, and the offense was no better.

It's not known what Del Negro will try to do, and it's futile to guess. But it's a safe assumption to say that he won't bring the level of defense that Scott Skiles did, because almost no one does. The hiring of Vinny The Black, and the new assistant coach lineup of Bernie Bickerstaff, Bob Ociepka and Del Harris, shows a clear intent to focus on the long term, and to concentrate on player development, something badly mismanaged during the Skiles era. It's the right approach, and winning the lottery gives General Manager John Paxson a second chance to clear up the collateral from the Ben Wallace disaster. Yet, for all horny long term projections, the Bulls are currently awash in highly paid underachievers.

Additionally, those players have regressed. Players were paid in accordance of what they were expected to go on and achieve, but after last year's diarrhoea of a season, no one did what they were supposed to. Nocioni used to play with a clean form of aggression, one where willpower and effort overcame his inability to dribble and penchant for leaving jumpshooters often. But these days, he chucks, and he pouts. Ben Gordon briefly became a near-All Star 20 ppg scorer, with good scoring efficiency, and an improved ability to dribble without falling over. But this desire to fit in with the offense seems to have left him. Luol Deng's jumpshot was infallible, but only for one year. And Kirk Hinrich has managed to get worse at every single facet of the game. This isn't the team it once was, despite it still being the same core.

The talent is still there. The Bulls still have a 20 point scorer at shooting guard, a potential 21/8 small forward with fine defense, and a combo guard with elite defense and a good jumpshot. Added to that, they now have a young Stephon Marbury at point guard, plus whatever you think of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. Furthermore, only one of those players is over 25. As young cores go, this one is still good.

As of right now, though, the roster is a clusterfuck. All the pieces that used to fit seamlessly, no longer do. And they're not as cheap as they used to be, either.

It's turnaroundable, if that's a word. The players that broke themselves can mend themselves. But it will take dramatic improvement from a unit that spent all of last year going backwards. Hinrich needs to find his footspeed again. Gordon needs to develop some humility. Deng needs to get his jumpshot back, and add four feet of range to it. Nocioni needs to pretend he's playing for Argentina every night. Thomas needs to learn how to make layups. Noah needs to learn how to make layups. Thabo Sefolosha needs to learn how to shoot. Hughes needs to learn how to play. And Drew Gooden needs to stop pratting about with his facial hair. (This won't help his performance any. It's just a general point.)

If this was another team, we'd probably be watching them intently, fawning openly, dicks in hand, doused in our own pre-ejaculate at the exciting and potential-laden duo of Rose and Thomas, despite them sounding more like the compelling protagonists in a Baroque-era love story. But that's not going to happen here. This is the Bulls. It's been nothing but false dawns for ten years. No one's leading them anything. This time, they're going to have to win our trust, by winning something.

Quite right too.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks and their new head coach Scott Skiles are an eclectic mix. Recent Skiles-free Bucks teams have been capable of repeated instances of spectacularly bad defense, whereas recent Skiles-led Bulls teams (last year excluded) have been one of the best defensive units in the NBA. Make no mistake about it - Scott Skiles can coach defense. He really can. He even made Michael Sweetney and Eddy Curry into decent defensive players, briefly.

In theory, therefore, a union of the two will bring the much needed defensive improvement to an offensively strong Milwaukee lineup. Or at least, that's one way to look at it. Alternatively, Milwaukee might have just hired a coach that them away from their strengths, further exposing the flaws in their personel. This could go either way.

For every Skiles strength, there is a big Skiles flaw. While he's shown that he can teach help defense to those players previously written off as futile, he also has an awful playbook. While he can coach guards onto better things, he can't coach big men, yet insists that he can. For every young player that thrives under his guidance, one more will be alienated and broken. For every amusing sarcastic comment he makes to the press, he'll make someone hate him. And for every glimpse of the remaining strip of hair across his head that he claims as a hairline......well, actually, there's no flaw to that, it's awesome.

Perhaps mercifully, the Bucks don't have too many young players. Their identity as a veteran team looking for something to push them back into contention was cemented this summer, when they dealt the closest thing that they had to a promising youngster - Yi Jianlian - as the primary piece for an in-his-prime Richard Jefferson. In free agency, the Bucks picked up Skiles's bitch, Malik Allen, as well as other veteran backups Tyronn Lue and Francisco Elson. Trading away Mo Williams saw the Bucks get little of use back on the court, but they did receive Adrian Griffin, Skiles's other bitch, and another old fart with no potential. These moves combined to send out a rather clear signal - they'd quite like to make the playoffs next year, please.

It's probably true to say that the core of Bucks players would be good enough to compete for the East if you significantly improved their defense. They have weapons, after all. Along with one of the league's best shooters in Michael Redd, the Bucks boast the vastly improved Andrew Bogut playing exclusively in the posts. They also now offer 20 point scoring small forward Richard Jefferson and 48 point scoring power forward Charlie Vllanueva, who both offer something of an inside/outside game. And while the point guard duo of Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions offer little outside shooting, they're willing and able to pass, which should help.

But it's not as easy as just adding a shit-hot defensive coach. Scott Skiles has clearly defined strengths, thereby seperating him from many NBA coaches (hello, Larry Krystowiak!), but he also has his flaws. Even in the early going, these flaws are showing through. The Sessions/Griffin/Fresh Prince/Allen/Elson lineup has already reared its ugly head on more than once occasion in preseason, and if you want to excuse its presence as being injury- or preseason-induced, then you need to start bracing yourself, because Scott Skiles is VERY willing and able to use Malik Allen as a go-to guy. You have been warned. (Note: this threat is doubly true, given that Allen represents the Bucks' best pick and pop option. Pick and pops are about the limit of Skiles's playbook creativity. Expect Andrew Bogut to be involved in dozens of them, irrespective of his complete lack of a jumpshot.)

That lineup represents the Bucks' closest replication of what Scott Skiles loves more than anything as a coach: players who don't make silly mistakes, talent be damned. If that unit - or any unit - can't get a shot off in 24 seconds, or even get the ball over halfcourt, then no matter, just as long as they rotate on defense and don't get all unnecessarily talented on his ass. This is why thinly veiled threats to start Allen (or Mbah A Moute) over Villanueva have already been made. Villanueva's talent level makes him a far better option at satrting power forward than any possible Bucks alternative, yet precisely because of the nature of his flaws, he may lose playing time. As a coaching philosophy, this mistake-free, defense-first-and-only style gets your players and your team to a certain level of production and success. And then it will keep you there.

Of course, I'm biased. I've watched all bar about seven games of Scott Skiles's tenure, and while I used to defend him vigorously, those days passed once his flaws became more evident. I've witnessed Kirk Hinrich become temporarily brilliant, and yet I've witnessed Tyson Chandler emerge into an elite rebounder and useful offensive presence....for someone else. I've seen Chris Duhon play 8000 minutes, and yet I've seen Thabo Sefolosha become damaged irrepairably. I've seen a Bulls roster overhauled, gain an identity, assume a certain style of play, overachieve, tune out their coach, and fall apart. And it's affected my bias somewhat. I refuse to apologise for this.

Scott Skiles is a coach, whose CV screams "short term improvements". He has been united with a previously mismanaged team, now primarily focused on finding "short term improvements". That team's weaknesses fit in perfectly with Skiles's strengths. The fit is so perfect that it shouldn't be allowed.

And yet, I'm not convinced. Because I've been there.


Short term future: They'll be better than under Krystkowiak, mainly due to the loss of Krystkowiak. Scott Skiles at least knows what he's doing, and half the team will benefit from it. The other half will be moved.
Long term future: See the above Bulls cycle. I'd like to be wrong.

Preview Sort Of Thing: Sacramento Kings

As an aspiring GM with no qualifications or career prospects to speak of, and whose sole outreach into the world of the NBA is this distinctly amateur and unattractive site full of mild slander, I enjoy certain advantages. One of those is the ability to do what I want, to a half-arsed standard, and then to abandon it prematurely, due to a savage concoction of apathy and boredom. This explains what happened with last year's "30 teams in 30 or so days" series of predictions, where I started well, fell behind early, and then gave up roughly half way through. Get in.

This year, we're going to do it again. There will be predictions, and by the power of Greyskull, they're going to be woeful. Even better than that, it's October 19th, and the season starts in just over a week, yet there are 30 teams to cover. So don't be surprised if I only do about......oooh, five? ShamSports.com - run by an amateur.

The few posts that will be made are to be undertaken in a completely random order, with no semblance of logic or reasoning. And with that in mind, we begin with the Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings glory era ended a while ago. The days of the Adelman-era Kings, with Chris Webber, Vlade Divac, Hedo Turkoglu, Peja Stojakovic, Doug Christie and friends, are over. Webber's knee stopped working, Turkoglu surprised us all by actually getting good, Christie's now the white Dame Dash, and Divac now works for the Serbian government. Other than the incumbent Brad Miller, the final player from those days - Mike Bibby - was pawned off to Atlanta earlier this year for a rather generous return. And that was that.

So, with a end of an old era should come the start of a new one. "The King Is Dead", and all that. But it didn't. For three years, the Kings have done little but tread water. A 44 win season in 2006 has been followed up with 33 and 38 wins respectively, which put the Kings in that most dissatisfying of places - too good to lose without trying, not good enough to compete.

In that time, though, the Kings have had the right approach. Despite a couple of novelty oversized contracts to short term veterans (thank you, Bonzi Wells's former agent!), the Kings have used this time to clean out the old guard, save some Robert De Niro, and to bring in some decent young pieces. This trend continued this year, as the Ron Artest trade brought back Bobby Jackson (big expiring contract), Donte Greene (decent young piece) and a draft pick (a draft pick). Furthermore, they defied ESPN's fan grade of "F" when they drafted Jason Thompson at number 12, to everyone's surprise and widespread condemnation, but a move which (very) early on looks to have been savvy. They signed Bobby Brown out of the German league, thereby shitting once again on my already tenuous theory that ever nobody goes to Germany and later gets back to the NBA. (Thanks to all those who already pointed out that Casey Jacobsen did exactly that last year. Dammit, I was being facetiousness. This is the price you pay when you feel a moral compulsion to try and be funny - you're often wrong, as well as not funny.)

What the Kings have fashioned themselves is a roster full of decent young pieces. With the exception of Kenny Thomas - whose days as a viable NBA player are behind him - the Kings roster is filled with decent pieces, most of them young. Francisco Garcia is a nice piece. John Salmons is a nice piece. Kevin Martin is a very nice piece. Beno Udrih, Bobby Brown, Quincy Douby, Spencer Hawes and Donte Greene are all nice pieces, even if Greene is the most pathetically selfish player that I've ever seen. (And I've seen Tyrone Nesby.) The much maligned Shelden Williams is also a nice piece, who'll never justify his draft position, but who can help an NBA team. And even Bobby Jackson will be a nice piece for a few months, before being bought out in February and signing with the Hornets. (You heard it here first.)

Additionally, the Kings have an identity on the court. With Brown, Udrih and Douby, the Kings have guards who excel in the open floor, and with wing players like Salmons and Garcia along with big men Thompson and Mikki Moore to run with them, the Kings should have free reign to push the ball as often as they can. Based on preseason, they will. The new Kings are a young, athletic and talented bunch, who should entertain, even when they lose.

Financially, the Kings have overspent a few times in recent years. Brad Miller is no longer worthy of his eight figure contract, as the age and weed are catching up with him. Mikki Moore is paid like a starting power forward, but a starting power forward he is not, even if he is. (Did that make sense?) The same poorly phrased sentence can be used to describe Beno Udrih's new salary as a starting point guard. Francisco Garcia's new extension necessitates future improvements in his game to justify the salary and the number of years, or else it's excessive. And Kenny Thomas's contract is nothing more than dead weight. Yet, the Kings' cap situation isn't a problem, despite these small mishaps. Miller's big salary comes off the books in 2010, as does that of Kenny Thomas. Shareef Abdur-Rahim's contract will magically disappear soon due to the injury-enduced retirement rule thing, and even if it doesn't, that expires in 2010 too. As things stand - Francisco Garcia's extension excluded - the Kings figure to have $25 to $30 million in cap space in the big name 2010 offseason, with all of their significant players signed. That figure will no doubt decrease slightly over time, but it nevertheless represents a plan. A lot of teams already have, or will soon develop, plans for cap space in the summer of 2010 offseason, but the Kings are ahead of the game and already have one. And they'll have some decent youth to add to that.

There are drawbacks, though. $25 million of cap space in 2010 should get anyone's juices flowing, but it's currently nothing more than speculative. In contrast, the facts of the current situation show that Kevin Martin is the Kings best player. Martin is a fine player, someone whom every team would want, but who also shouldn't be your best player. If he is, you either need to be in the Eastern Conference and with an almost perfect replication of the Pistons' championship winning team from 2004, or you're not going to get very far. Sadly for Kings fans, it's the latter. Additionally, for all of their strengths when pushing the ball, the Kings will often bog down in the halfcourt. With little creativity or playmaking from the point guard spot, and with not a great deal of consistent outside shooting in the rotation, a lot of the Kings halfcourt offense will depend on Martin, and the high post/low post passing of Miller and Hawes. When armed with comparatively few options, it becomes rather easy for the opposition to take the Kings out of whatever they want to do, and Sacramento has little individual creativity to overcome this.

On nights when it clicks, when the Kings make shots and run on all misses, it'll look glorious. The young and athletic roster will tempt the fans, and hint at a good looking future. But on other nights, the Kings will look like what they are.

Average.

The Kings have the right idea, and they are halfway to the right roster. But, for now, they're several yards behind.


Short term future: Too good to suck, not good enough to compete.
Long term future: It could be beautiful. Or it could be anti-climactic.

With apologies to Dwight Howard

In my season preview of the Orlando Magic, written back in October and located here, I wrote something that looks a bit stupid in hindsight. At this point, I'd quite like to try and weasel my way out most of it.

The following are some quotes that I stand by:

It would be very difficult if not impossible to provide a commentary on the Rashard Lewis sign-and-trade while also managing to take an interesting or unique viewpoint, or to say anything that hasn't already been said. So I won't. But I will recommend that you look at the figure that he signed for (listed above), and think long and hard about whether he is worth it. And if you come up with any answer other than "no", keep looking at it until you do. In 2013, a 33 year old Rashard Lewis is going to be being paid nearly $22.7 million. It's freakin' bizarre. Or freakin' stupid, pick your own adjective. Both work.

---

So now, ask yourselves whether the trio of Hill, Milicic and Diener (who should, without a doubt, have played over Carlos Arroyo all of last season, and who is now nicely lined up for a breakout season) is going to help any more than Rashard Lewis on his own. It's a tough answer, but either way, the Magic's player personel did not improve much. If at all.

---

Last season's mediocre performance suggests that the good run to end the 2005/06 season was nothing more than an aberration. With better coaching and better performance this season, the Magic have the opportunity to show that it was last season that was the anomaly instead. If Orlando gets breakout performances from one or perhaps a couple of young players (specifically looking in the directions of Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick), they could contend for the open Southeast Division title.

If you only read those three passages, then I wrote a damn fine piece. However, I ended it like this:

Perhaps a more realistic expectation, though, would be for a low playoff seed once again.

Um, well, that's proven to be wrong so far.

Currently, the Magic reside atop the Southeast Division, with a record of 22-13. Their nearest rivals in the division are the Washington Wizards at 16-15, who apparently just lost Gilbert Arenas for the rest of the season. And in third place are the Atlanta Hawks, who are trying to justify my playoff call with a 15-16 record and a damn tough schedule thus far.

The Magic are the third seed in the East thus far, which is no mean feat given how the top two teams (Boston and Detroit) are by far and away superior to the rest of the conference. Now obviously they're inevitably going to lose this third to the mighty and surging Chicago Bulls (you heard it here first), but even so, they should still come fourth in the East. And that's not a "low playoff seed".

So somewhere along the line, barring dramatic unpredictable implosion, I've made a boo-boo.

I stand by my views on the Rashard Lewis deal, as he quite frankly hasn't been even nearly worth it thus far. I also can't be expected to have predicted the Keith Bogans Jumpshot Spectacular that's bizarrely given unto us by the Lord this season, although I won't be entirely surprised if he regresses to somewhere near his career norm any day now. The point guard play still isn't very good, although I did overlook the fact that Carlos Arroyo's contract is expiring, which always leads to him giving forth a more concerted effort. And I strongly admire Orlando General Manager Otis Smith's efforts to sabotage his team's good play with another poor trade, needlessly shipping Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook, two players who offer nothing that Orlando couldn't have gotten from within. The chances are that Smith has at least one more of those left in the gun yet, too.

But mainly, the prediction is my own fault, and it's rather to simple to see why.

I forgot to account for the fact that Dwight Howard is, quite simply, the shit.

Whoops. Sorry, Dwight.

30 teams in 56 or so days: Minnesota

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Greg Buckner (acquired from Dallas)
Michael Doleac (acquired from Miami)
Antoine Walker (acquired from Miami)
Theo Ratliff (acquired from Boston)
Ryan Gomes (acquired from Boston)
Al Jefferson (acquired from Boston)
Sebastian Telfair (acquired from Boston)
Gerald Green (acquired from Boston)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Corey Brewer (7th overall)
Second round: Chris Richard (41st overall)



Players retained:

None



Players departed:

Mark Blount (traded to Miami)
Ricky Davis (traded to Miami)
Kevin Garnett (traded to Boston)
Trenton Hassell (traded to Dallas)
Troy Hudson (bought out)
Mike James (traded to Houston)
Justin Reed (traded to Houston)
Bracey Wright (left unrestricted, signed in Greece)



Bobbins:

You probably want me, or expect me, to burn the shit out of Kevin McHale in this space, as I have done so many times in the past. But it's not going to happen. I actually think he's done a nice job this offseason, all things considering.

The reason I say "all these considering", is that McHale has done a rather nice job of restructuring a team that, apart from New York, was about the hardest possible team to reconstruct. With multiple long and bad contracts (you can see their almost-accurate payroll of last season here), and also with first round draft picks still owed to Boston and the Los Angeles Clippers, the Timberwolves were roundly fucked. With only a couple of young players worth a damn and with only superstar Kevin Garnett providing any value worth a damn, McHale had only one option - to trade Kevin Garnett and start again.

He could have gone the other way, signed a veteran, and made another playoff push, hoping that the impossible would occur and that the Timberwolves would suddenly have enough firepower to rival the West's best teams. That would have been a really stupid thing to do, though, It was also a really stupid thing to do last year with the Mike James signing, and it was a pretty stupid thing to do the year before with the Mark Blount trade. So thankfully, he and ever so slightly intrusive owner Glen Taylor didn't go this route again. If he had done so, euthanasia may have been justified.

Everyone seems to believe, though, that the Timberwolves did not get nearly enough in return for Garnett. KG's value isn't what it would have been had this move been made two years ago, but it was still very high. Critics, professional or otherwise, seem to believe that Minnesota did not get nearly enough in return for Garnett. They received Al Jefferson (one of the best young post players in the game, and incidentally, the upcoming winner of this season's rebounding title, and if you disagree then you're just wrong), Gerald Green (wildly overhyped prospect whose option they did not then exercise, bringing the hype back down to Earth), Ryan Gomes (useful role player), Theo Ratliff (massive expiring contract), Sebastian Telfair (far smaller expiring contract with a very outside chance of being a Marcus Banks type reclaimation project), and two first round picks, one of which was being returned to Minnesota after Boston got it in the Mark Blount/Wally Szczerbiak deal thing.

Let's put that into context. In other recent superstar trades, here's what transpired:

a) Miami trades Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, Caron Butler, first round pick (used on Jordan Farmar), second round pick (moved onto Dallas, turned into the insatiable Renaldas Seibutis) to the L.A. Lakers for Shaquille O'Neal (which would have been a decent return had the Lakers not then gifted Butler to the Wizards for Kwame Brown, a player who they didn't need then nor now).

2) Houston trades Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato to Orlando for Tracy McGrady, Tyronn Lue, Reece Gaines and Juwan Howard (basically horrific for Orlando).

3) New Jersey trades Aaron Williams, Eric Williams, Alonzo Mourning and two first round picks (one used on Joey Graham, the other dealt to New York and used on Renaldo Balkman) to Toronto for Vince Carter (unmitigated shitness regardless of circumstance).

4) Denver trades Joe Smith, Andre Miller and two first round picks (one traded to Miami and used on Daequan Cook with Jason Smith going the other way, the other dealt to Portland and used on Petteri Koponen) to Philadelphia for Allen Iverson and Ivan McFarlin (um, OK).



Now you tell me what historical precedent tells us about superstar's returning value in trades. It ranges from mediocre to freakin' awful.

And now tell me again why the package Minnesota got of a premium young player, big financial savings, two first round picks and a couple of potentially useful peripheral parts is such a bad thing.

In addition to the big trade, Minnesota made several smaller ones. In trading Trenton Hassell for Greg Buckner, they traded a player who was reportedly a right moanarse in the locker room, who had a big contract and who wasn't very good anyway, for a lesser player who doesn't moan and who has a lot less guaranteed money coming his way for fewer years. Trading Mike James for Juwan Howard again got them a player with less guaranteed money over fewer years, and buying out Troy Hudson's third partially guaranteed year again turned a three year contract into a two year one while losing no playe rof any significance (it's been a theme). And in the Mark Blount and Ricky Davis to Miami trade, Minnesota managed to again trade a big contract with three years remaining (Blount) for one with only two left (Walker), while also getting a first round draft pick in the deal.

It's only a shame that they couldn't swap Mark Madsen for Adrian Griffin or somebody. They could have then completed the set.





Next season:

If you're going to flounder and die, you might as well do so with some purpose to it. Nothing about the Timberwolves recent history offered up much in the way of hope. Since McHale began disbanding the 2003-2004 team (arguably the league's best team that year) with such heroic ineptitude that he just had to keep his job for three more years - using such tactical masterstrokes as trading Sam Cassell and a first round pick for Marko Jaric, and the previously mentioned Wally Szczerbiak trade - Minnesota has witnessed one subsequent year of frustrating mediocrity, and two years of something worse than that. In those two years, complete tank jobs have had to be pulled just so that the franchise was able to keep the pick it had originally given up to the Clippers for Jaric in the first place, and they won 65 games combined over the last two years for this reason.

It wasn't going anywhere, and with two first rounders owing and only two young players (Chris Smith and Randy Foye) worth a damn, they weren't getting out of the 35ish win range any time soon.

So they finally blew it up. And I'm glad. You should be, too.

It's just gone so tits up for so long basketball wise, that it's just refreshing to see things go rather well for a change. The dream of Garnett playing his whole career in Minnesota was still held by some, which has led to fall out, but it shoulda been shot to shit a long time before now. If it had, maybe those last two years need not have happened. In one offseason, Minnesota transformed itself from a team in transition going from bad to worse, into a team that may one day go places.

Of course, they might not. They are still led by the insatiable pairing of McHale and Taylor, who are always liable to fuck things right up in ways you never previously thought conceivable (Mark Madsen's still got three years left, by the way. I thought this needed highlighting twice, you see). But if they can stave off their compulsion to destroy everything (by the way, Two For The Money starring Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey isn't THAT bad of a film if you stop it at the hour mark), Minnesota might start headed places again some day soon.

There's a good chance that this new look lineup tops out in a few years at the 40 win barrier that the franchise just traded Garnett to get away from. Still, they can but try.

30 teams in 56 or so days: Miami

Players acquired via free agency or trade:

Mark Blount (acquired from Minnesota)
Ricky Davis (acquired from Minnesota)
Smush Parker (signed, 2 years, $4,680,000)
Joel Anthony, Brian Chase, Devin Green, Penny Hardaway, Alexander Johnson, Jeremy Richardson and Marcus Slaughter (all signed to the minimum salary with assorted levels of partial guarantees. If you include holdovers Earl Barron and Chris Quinn, you have 8 players on the bubble, 4 of whom are going to have to be cut.)



Players acquired via draft:

First round: Daequan Cook (21st overall, acquired in draft night deal)
Second round: None



Players retained:

Earl Barron (re-signed, unguaranteed qualifying offer)



Players departed:

Michael Doleac (traded to Minnesota)
Wayne Simien (traded to Minnesota)
Antoine Walker (traded to Minnesota)
Eddie Jones (signed with Miami)
Jason Kapono (signed with Toronto)
Gary Payton (put to sleep)
James Posey (signed with Boston)



Bobbins:

It seems fitting to "do" Miami next, given that they are a team recently in the news. If you are like me, and you're the kind of person that tends to get so excited when a transaction is made that a little bit of wee seeps out, then you probably secreted when you learnt of the recent Miami/Minnesota trade. That move saw Miami trades Antoine Walker, Wayne
Simien, Michael Doleac, a first-round pick and cash to Minnesota for Ricky Davis and Mark Blount, which potentially salvaged a crappy offseason for Miami.

Despite previous protestations about how the team would never be a taxpayer, last year's capitulation at the hands of the incomparably superior Chicago Bulls awakened Riley, Pfund and that lot to the fact that their team just isn't that good any more. The Heat had committed themselves financially to a core that had a championship window of exactly one year. They capitalised on that, winning the title in that one year of 2006, but they did so at a cost. The fallout from that left them with one young superstar and a heap of overpaid elderly codswallop. Codswallop, by the way, is a much underused word, especially in the NBA world. It means "nonsense", "rubbish", "crap", and stuff to that effect. I have two big aims for the world of basketball this year - firstly to get a complete scrub to the All Star game by mass manipulation of the online ballot (who this will be has not been decided upon yet, it depends on who is on the ballot), and also to get the word codswallop started on its long journey towards every day usage in the NBA world. Today, this day, this place, this paragraph, marks the start of that journey. Pay heed.

This elderley supporting case was enough to get it done in 2006, but last year the Heat showed their age. Starting point guard Jason Williams may only be 31, but he was exposed as a weakness last year - while the heart and head were willing, the knees were not. His backup, Gary Payton, was perhaps the worst rotation player in basketball last year. His main rival for that title was team mate Antoine Walker, while veteran centres Alonzo Mourning and Michael Doleac did not do much to offset the loss of Shaquille O'Neal, who had the worst season of his professional career as 35 year olds tend to do.

Needing to spend, and with permission granted from whoever it is that pays the bills, Miami then tried to get a bit of everybody. With starter Jason Kapono snapped up by Toronto within about 18 seconds of the free agency period starting, Miami let him leave unchallenged, rightly unwilling to pay that price tag. However, despite continuing to negotiate with James Posey, the Heat weren't able to convince him to stay either, as he signed with Boston. And with Eddie Jones having already signed with Dallas, Miami was left in the rather awkward position of not having any wing players that could make an outside shot, and also with the frankly scary possibility of having Antoine Walker start at small forward next year.

In addition to looking for a wing player or two that didn't suck, Miami was also seeking to upgrade their piss weak point guard position, and add a veteran big for insurance. These three seperate chases led them to pursue all manner of free agents and trade possibilities, from such diverse names as Maurice Williams, Charlie Bell, Mickael Pietrus, Allan Houston, P.J. Brown, Sasha Pavlovic, Ime Udoka, Mike Bibby, Juan Carlos Navarro, Ron Artest, Jannero Pargo, Rafer Alston, Corey Maggette, Steve Francis, Matt Barnes, Morris Peterson, Steve Blake, Gerald Wallace, Sarunas Jasikevicius, James Singleton and Vitaly freakin' Potapenko - basically, everybody. Only one of those moves went anywhere, when Miami signed Bell to an offer sheet, that Milwaukee swiftly matched.

The anti-climactic feeling of it all hit home when Miami announced their first two prominent free agency signings as being Smush Parker and Penny Hardaway, two players that are, frankly, a bit crap. The signings also summed up the bipolar nature of Pat Riley's offseason pursuits: after harping on for ages and ages about wanting a young and athletic lineup (the signings of players such as Parker, Marcus Slaughter, Alexander Johnson and Jeremy Richardsonhelp here), Riley also can't seem to resist trying to sign every old bastard that used to be any good (Jones, Hardaway, Houston), which seemed directly contradictory to the young athletes thing. But, oh well, whatever.

After the Bell thing went wrong, nothing much happened. The Heat continued to pursue all kinds of trades and free agency possibilties, to no avail. They rounded out their roster with more young athletes, and went to camp still working the phones but accepting the fact that nothing may come of it. And when Shaq's inevitable injury turned up and Dwyane Wade added in one of his own, the Heat were staring down a lottery spot.

Then just this past week, it got interesting, as Miami was finally able to do something. And the trade they made was a good one. They landed two of their probable top 9 players in Davis and Blount while only giving up spare parts to do so. Losing Antoine Walker is a case of addition by subtraction, Davis gives them a useful scorer and athlete at the wing position which Miami had sought all offseason, and Blount gives them a center whose limited face-up game is still useful when playing alongside Dwyane Wade, even if he does have a massive inability to catch.

All it really cost Miami was an extra year of Blount's big salary over Antoine's, and a first round pick that won't be high in an ideal world anyway. It's a trade that has put Miami back into the playoff picture, although they still aren't even nearly as good as their fans would like you to believe.

But who's to say that they've finished yet?



Next season:

In my Bobcats post, I talked about how I had decided upon my 8 Eastern seeds for the playoffs. Miami wasn't one of them at the time. Now, they are.

It's still a flawed team, with the worst point guard rotation around, and with the very overrated Udonis Haslem still starting at point guard. The team is still dependent on how much Shaq is willing to give a shit, and Miami is also still largely a two man team dependent on Shaq's health (and his continued descent towards mediocrity).

But that can be enough. The Cleveland Cavaliers, after all, are the epitomy of a one man team, and they amde the NBA Finals. They used a helluva lot of luck to get there, as their playoff matchups opened up wonderfully for them. But you can only beat who is in front of you, and that's what Cleveland did.

Miami is far from the best team in the East these days, let alone in the NBA overall. Their supporting cast to the two stars is rather poor, and the Shaq/Wade duo are not exactly the best examples of durability. But if various circumstances all come good at the same time, Miami has themselves a team that can make inroads in the East. If they can scrape into the playoffs and maintain good health all around at the most crucial time, then they won't be an easy matchup for whoever they play. Everyone said much the same last year, but they forgot two key things:

a) The Heat were never healthy.
b) Nor were they even nearly good enough.

This offseason, they've improved. They've cut out most of the crap, and added some talent. It's a better team than it was.

But it's not a title team. Not even close.