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Thursday, July 08, 2010

The amount of cap room teams will actually have, updated, again

This is an update of the update of the earlier post that detailed the amount of cap room teams will have. It is updated to reflect everything that happened at the draft, including, in the case of the Kirk Hinrich trade, things that haven't happened that soon will.

More importantly, it is updated to reflect the fact that we now know where the salary cap is going to be; with the calculations all down, the NBA has announced that the salary cap for the 2010/11 season will be higher that expected, coming in at $58,044,000.

After all that, it went up from last year.

Other than those things, this is a carbon copy of the initial post. In this edition, there are no entries for teams irrelevant to cap space, because I can't be bothered. If those teams make moves to become relevant, they will get mentioned later.



    Chicago Bulls


Committed salary for 2010/11: $31,850,976 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $19,420,366


The projected figure is based around the as-yet-uncompleted trade that will send Kirk Hinrich and the #17 pick to Washington, in exchange for pretty much nothing. That trade will leave the Bulls with only five players under contract - Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, James Johnson, Taj Gibson - with no cap holds from draft picks. If we assume that that move goes down unchanged and that all free agents are renounced, the Bulls salary situation then looks like this;

Luol Deng = $11,345,000
Derrick Rose = $5,546,160
Joakim Noah = $3,128,536
James Johnson = $1,713,600
Taj Gibson = $1,117,680

Seven roster charges = $473,604 * 7 = $3,788,832.

Total = $26,166,204

Cap space to $58.044 million cap = $31,877,796


The Bulls have already agreed to sign Carlos Boozer to a deal reportedly worth $75 million. How they will structure that contract is still unclear; as long as they abide by the maximum raise and decrease percentage of 8% of the salary of the first year, and do not exceed Boozers maximum first year salary (which will be equal to the maximum salary of a 9 year veteran; last year, that was $16,224,600), then they can do what they like. They also probably didn't sign him for exactly $75 million, partly because it is very rare that anyone signs for such exact amounts, and partly because as you will see below, this leads to exact and thus ugly annual salaries. And the Bulls tend to like round numbers. (All teams have trends, and Chicago is one that loves the rounder numbers. NB: As is the case for every agreed-to-but-not-yet-completed signing so far, you will get the exact numbers when I do.)

However, for the sake of this post, let's assume that the Bulls will sign Boozer for exactly $75 million, and that they will do so paying as little in the first year as possible (since it behooves them to do this). That then leads to a breakdown of Boozer's salary as follows;

2010/11: $12,931,034
2011/12: $13,965,517
2012/13: $15,000,000
2013/14: $16,034,483
2014/15: $17,068,966

(Note: signing Boozer for $75.4 million instead leads to a much tidier breakdown of $13,000,000, $14,040,000, $15,080,000, $16,120,000 and $17,160,000 instead. It's my inclination that it's the Bulls inclination to do that. But until the contract is actually signed, we can only speculate.)

Taking $12,931,034 away from the Bulls' cap space of $31,877,796, plus adding $473,604 for losing one roster spot charge, leaves $19,420,366 in remaining cap space. With a thin chance of still signing LeBron James, whose maximum salary next season is $16,568,908, there remains the possibility of the Bulls signing him and having $3,325,062 ($19,420,366 - $16,568,908 + $473,604) left over for one more piece.

Failing that, they're spreading $20 million three ways and trading for guards.



    L.A. Clippers


Committed salary for 2010/11: $33,528,349 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $18,774,013


Two years after last having cap space - and buggering it up - the Clippers are back in the mix. Their upcoming free agents are to be Steve Blake, Rasual Butler, Travis Outlaw, Mardy Collins, Drew Gooden, Craig Smith, Steve Novak, Bobby Brown and Brian Skinner - some nice role players in there, but no one worth jeopardising possible cap room for. (Furthermore, Gooden has already agreed to sign with Milwaukee, and Blake has agreed to sign with the L.A. Lakers.) If and when all those are renounced, the Clippers salary situation then looks like this:

Baron Davis - $13,000,000
Chris Kaman - $11,300,000
Blake Griffin - $5,357,280
Eric Gordon - $3,016,680
DeAndre Jordan - $854,389

Al-Farouq Aminu - $2,136,100 (unsigned draft pick)
Eric Bled So - $1,237,500 (unsigned draft pick)

Five roster charges = $473,604 * 5 = $2,368,020

= $39,269,969
= $18,774,013 in cap room.


Additionally, Jordan's salary is unguaranteed; waiving him opens up another $380,785 in cap room after being charged another cap hold. That would boost their amount of cap room to $17,974,712. It's something to consider, but it's overkill. And it's definitely overkill when you consider that all that cap space hasn't helped the Clippers in any way so far.





    Miami Heat


Committed salary for 2010/11: $7,360,801 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $13,170,035


We now have a handle on where Miami actually stands, and most of it was as expected. Mario Chalmers's option was exercised. Kenny Hasbrouck's wasn't. Joel Anthony opted out, and was extended a qualifying offer. Dwyane Wade opted out as well, obviously. Daequan Cook and the first rounder were traded; Michael Beasley and James Jones weren't. Jones was later waived, and agreed to give up $1 million of his owed $5,952,000 since Miami agreed to pay it all up front. That move opened up $311,828 more in cap room for Miami.

More importantly, Miami have already and sensationally agreed to both re-sign Wade and add Chris Bosh from Toronto. They need do nothing else now, and their offseason can still be considered a success.

However, they won't do that. They'll keep trying to makes moves; rumoured ones already out there include trading Chalmers to Portland for Rudy Fernandez, returning Udonis Haslem and signing Jason Williams. Miami still has cap room with which to make moves; exactly how much cap room, we're here to find out.

With all the above moves in place, the assumption that Wade and Bosh will sign deals starting at $16,568,908 (the maximum for both players), and the assumption that Miami will re-sign all 17 of their free agents not named Joel Anthony or Udonis Haslem (a list of whom are here), Miami then stands as follows;

Dwyane Wade - $16,568,908
Chris Bosh - $16,568,908
Michael Beasley - $4,962,240
James Jones - $1,544,172 (waived)
Mario Chalmers - $854,389

Joel Anthony - $1,060,120 (qualifying offer and cap hold)
Udonis Haslem - $10,650,000

Six roster charges = $2,841,624

Total = $55,050,361 = $2,993,639 in cap room.


The reason I left the cap hold of Haslem in there, despite its size, is that the Heat seem to really want to retain him. To do so after they renounce him means either using up all their cap space and signing him for the minimum, or using part of the cap space on him, which lessens the amount they can spend on others. They can still renounce him and sign him, or sign him before they sign others; however, whatever they do, that's his cap hold. If they renounce him as well, Miami's remaining cap space becomes $13,170,035 ($58,044,000 - $55,050,361 + $10,650,000 - $473,604); that's how much they have to spend on the third guy.

If that third guy is to be LeBron, then either one of the three is taking a slight paycut, all three are taking a slight paycut, or Michael Beasley is out of here. Probably the latter.




    Minnesota Timberwolves


Committed salary for 2010/11: $36,472,400 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $7,265,295


Minnesota's draft day moves didn't do much for whatever cap space aspirations they had (which weren't many). Since that time, they have also agreed to sign Nikola Pekovic for 3 years and $13 million (a good deal) as well as re-signing Darko Milicic for 4 years and $20 million (not such a good deal). Assuming that Greg Stiemsma's unguaranteed $762,195 contract is waived and everyone else is renounced, they now stand as follows:

Al Jefferson - $13,000,000
Martell Webster - $4,800,000
Ramon Sessions - $3,964,320
Corey Brewer - $3,703,472
Kevin Love - $3,638,280
Jonny Flynn - $3,192,000
Ryan Hollins - $2,333,333
Wayne Ellington - $1,078,800

Wesley Johnson - $3,105,500 (unsigned draft pick)
Ricky Rubio - $2,812,200 (unsigned draft pick)
Lazar Hayward - $850,800 (unsigned draft pick)

One roster charge - $473,604

(Note: unsigned first round draft picks have cap holds. Unsigned second rounders don't.)

Total = $42,952,309 = $15,091,691 in cap room.

(This also assumes that cap holds on Sasha Pavlovic, Oleksiy Pecherov, Damien WilkinsBrian Cardinal, Nathan Jawai, Latrell Sprewell, Kirk Snyder, Michael Doleac, Sam Jacobsen, Oliver Miller, Sam Mitchell, Andrae Patterson and Bracey Wright would also be renounced. Which shouldn't be a problem.)

Assuming that the contract for Pekovic start at $4 million, and that the one for Darko starts at $4.3 million, Minnesota still has $7,265,295 ($15,091,691 - $4,000,000 - $4,300,000 + $473,604) remaining in cap room.




    New Jersey Nets


Committed salary for 2010/11: $20,754,985 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $35,407,411


New Jersey's free agents this offseason are Tony Battie, Bobby Simmons, Trenton Hassell, Chris Quinn, Josh Boone and Jarvis Hayes. They will not be missed. Other cap holds from previous years include Bostjan Nachbar, Maurice Ager, Darrell Armstrong, Rodney Buford, Travis Best, Hubert Davis, Sherman Douglas, Jack Haley, Donny Marshall, Gheorghe Muresan, Jabari Smith, John Thomas and Derrick Zimmerman. They, too, are easily renounced.

Keyon Dooling's $3,828,000 contract was only $500,000 guaranteed, which is why he has already been waived. Derrick Favors has a cap hold of $3,444,400, and Damion James has one of $963,600. Therefore, the Nets' cap room figures to play out like this:

Devin Harris - $8,981,000
Kris Humphries - $3,200,000
Brook Lopez - $2,413,320
Terrence Williams - $2,214,480
Courtney Lee - $1,352,640
Quinton Ross - $1,146,337
Keyon Dooling - $500,000 (waived)
Brian Zoubek - $473,604
Ben Uzoh - $473,604

Derrick Favors - $3,444,400
Damion James - $963,600

One roster charge - $473,604

Total = $22,636,589 = $35,407,411 in cap room.


That's a lot of money. Unfortunately, no one seems to want it.



    New York Knicks


Committed salary for 2010/11: $18,637,294 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $19,367,841


Working on the incredibly safe assumption that Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, David Lee, Chris Duhon, Eddie House, Sergio Rodriguez, J.R. Giddens, Jonathan Bender, Earl Barron, Kelvin Cato, Andrew Lang, Larry Robinson, Felton Spencer, Bruno Sundov and Qyntel Woods are all renounced, New York then has the following salaries;

Eddy Curry - $11,276,863
Danilo Gallinari - $3,304,560
Wilson Chandler - $2,130,482
Toney Douglas - $1,071,000
Bill Walker - $854,389
Seven roster charges - $3,315,228

Total = $21,952,522
= $36,091,478 in cap room.

(As was the case with DeAndre Jordan above, waiving Walker would open up a further $380,785 in cap room. However, that too seems like overkill. You've got $36 million in store, why waste a decent young shooter for less than $400k more?)


The Knicks have already agreed to sign Amare Stoudemire from Phoenix to a five year maximum salary contract. Stoudemire's maximum first year salary is worth $17,197,241 - take that away from their cap room, and remove one roster charge, and you get $19,367,841. Unless a sign and trade occurs, that is how much cap room the Knicks have left.

However, they now have the same strife as most of the rest of this list; who is there to use it on? Too many bidders, not enough lots.



    Oklahoma City Thunder


Committed salary for 2010/11: $42,165,228 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: None


The Thunder only have three free agents; Etan Thomas, Kevin Ollie and Mustafa Shakur. They also have the unguaranteed salary of Kyle Weaver ($935,484, fully unguaranteed).

Oklahoma City have already agreed to trade their two first rounders to New Orleans in exchange for the draft rights to Cole Aldrich and the deadweight salary of Morris Peterson. That move will mean their cap situation is as follows:

Nick Collison - $6,750,000
Mo Peterson - $6,665,000 (after trade kicker)
Kevin Durant - $6,053,663
Nenad Krstic - $5,543,116
Jeff Green - $4,455,988
James Harden - $4,304,520
Russell Westbrook - $4,017,720
Thabo Sefolosha - $3,000,000
Daequan Cook - $2,169,857
Cole Aldrich - $1,772,100 (unsigned draft pick)
Eric Maynor - $1,417,800
B.J. Mullens - $1,204,200
Serge Ibaka - $1,204,200
D.J. White - $1,108,680
Kyle Weaver - $935,484

Total = $50,602,328
= $7,441,672.

This is less than the amounts of the MLE and BAE combined. As a result, Oklahoma City no longer has cap room. Was it worth it for Cole Aldrich, in a trade which absolutely could have waited a couple of weeks? We shall see.





    Sacramento Kings


Committed salary for 2010/11: $36,500,829 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $16,284,568


The trade for Samuel Dalembert took a smidgen out of the Kings 2010 cap room, because Dalembert was paid more this season ($12,025,694) than Hawes and Nocioni combined ($9,832,800). That amount boosted the Kings' 2010/11 committed salary to $36,500,829, a figure onto which we must add DeMarcus Cousins's salary ($3,374,640), as he has already signed his rookie deal. There is also a qualifying offer extended to Jon Brockman, which is fully guaranteed; the fact that the Kings extended that offer, whilst also signing Cousins early (first round picks almost always have smaller cap holds when unsigned than when signed, since cap holds are 100% of the rookie scale and players almost sign for 120%), suggests that the Kings aren't too serious about doing the cap space thing.

Nevetheless, they've got some. As for exactly how much, we'll find out below.

Assuming Sean May, Dominic McGuire and Ime Udoka are renounced;

Committed salary (9 players) = $39,875,469
Brockman's QO (also his cap hold) = $937,195
Two roster charges = $947,208

Total = $41,759,872
Cap space = $16,284,568


By signing DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings no longer have enough cap room for LeBron James.



    Washington Wizards


Committed salary for 2010/11: $32,087,262 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $8,396,874


Washington started the season primed with maximum cap space, just like their peers above. However, unlike their peers, they've used it via trades. Taking advantage of Chicago and New Jersey's desires to create more cap room, as well as Minnesota's desire to make a bad trade, Washington made three deals that utilised their space;

1) obtaining Kirk Hinrich and the #17 pick (Kevin Seraphin) for nothing,
2) trading Quinton Ross for Yi Jianlian,
3) trading the #30 and #35 picks (Lazar Hayward and Pneumonia Bjelica) for #23 and #56 (Trevor Booker and Hamady N'Diaye)

Those moves thus put the Wizards here;

Gilbert Arenas - $17,730,693
Kirk Hinrich - $9,000,000
Yi Jianlian - $4,050,499
Andray Blatche - $3,260,331
Al Thornton - $2,814,196
Nick Young - $2,630,503
JaVale McGee - $1,601,040

John Wall - $4,286,900 (unsigned draft pick)
Kevin Seraphin - $1,302,600 (unsigned draft pick)
Trevor Booker - $1,003,800 (unsigned draft pick)

Carter Martin - $1,029,389 (qualifying offer and cap hold)
Cedric Jackson - $937,195 (qualifying offer and cap hold)


Total = $49,647,146 = $8,396,874 in cap space.


There's a bit left. Even more if they let Martin and Jackson go. But based on current form, they're filling it in stages.

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"The brain behind ShamSports could have been featured in a number of these Twitter lists, but because his website often spends our entire working day lodged in one of our browser tabs we decided to take the boring route and place Mark amongst the professors. Deeks might be the funniest man you've never met, he does exhaustive work with the NBA's salary minutiae and transaction follow-ups, and he's a stone-cold must-follow. Stone-cold fox, too, ladies. Or, some gentlemen."